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Thanks for the newsletter, chock-full of great stuff always. Curious your thoughts on the upcoming Bolivian elections esp in light of recent protests - does MAS get booted from the ticket? Does Áñez manage to win regardless? Or will there be some sort of dispute that TSE rules in favor of Áñez? I feel like there's some more interesting analysis/questions I'm excluding....but can't think of what.
It would be a huge mistake for Añez to find a way to kick MAS off the ballot. It would lead to major protests and delegitimize the election for many both domestically and internationally. That doesn't mean she won't do it.
I can think of three scenarios: the good, the bad and the ugly.
Good: Fair election leads to a Mesa victory in the second round with the MAS controlling a plurality of the Congress. The two sides are forced to find common ground and restore some institutional control to the country. There is an alternate (less likely) good scenario in which the MAS wins but the moderates within the party don't go down the Evo path.
Bad: Mesa and Añez divide the anti-MAS vote, leading to an Arce win in the first round. The radicals among the anti-MAS refuse to recognize the victory while the MAS tries to consolidate control again. The military or police may play too much of a political role here.
Ugly: Añez kicks the MAS off the ballot and steals the election. Protests domestically and anger abroad.
I may do a newsletter along those lines at some point in the coming weeks.
Thanks for the newsletter, chock-full of great stuff always. Curious your thoughts on the upcoming Bolivian elections esp in light of recent protests - does MAS get booted from the ticket? Does Áñez manage to win regardless? Or will there be some sort of dispute that TSE rules in favor of Áñez? I feel like there's some more interesting analysis/questions I'm excluding....but can't think of what.
It would be a huge mistake for Añez to find a way to kick MAS off the ballot. It would lead to major protests and delegitimize the election for many both domestically and internationally. That doesn't mean she won't do it.
I can think of three scenarios: the good, the bad and the ugly.
Good: Fair election leads to a Mesa victory in the second round with the MAS controlling a plurality of the Congress. The two sides are forced to find common ground and restore some institutional control to the country. There is an alternate (less likely) good scenario in which the MAS wins but the moderates within the party don't go down the Evo path.
Bad: Mesa and Añez divide the anti-MAS vote, leading to an Arce win in the first round. The radicals among the anti-MAS refuse to recognize the victory while the MAS tries to consolidate control again. The military or police may play too much of a political role here.
Ugly: Añez kicks the MAS off the ballot and steals the election. Protests domestically and anger abroad.
I may do a newsletter along those lines at some point in the coming weeks.