AMLO is winning the political battles over corruption
Accusations of hypocrisy and corruption against Mexico's president aren't hurting him
The past few weeks have seen a lot of corruption news in Mexico:
Former Pemex CEO Emilio Lozoya was extradited and began defending himself against corruption charges related to Odebrecht bribes.
In the process, a document was leaked in which Lozoya accuses many other top officials in the previous administration of corruption including former President Enrique Peña Nieto.
Evidence of alleged bribes to PRI and PAN officials were also leaked and President Lopez Obrador showed a video of an alleged bribe in his morning press conference.
That backfired in the following days as it was revealed that the businessman in that video received over a dozen contracts from the AMLO administration.
An additional video leaked showing AMLO’s brother, Pio Lopez Obrador, receiving money during Morena’s 2015 campaign.
AMLO’s critics think they’re winning
Above: A screenshot of a video in which Pio Lopez Obrador, the president’s brother, receives money from David Leon.
For the president’s critics and political opponents, the video of AMLO’s brother accepting money during the 2015 campaign feels like a vindication. After months of other smaller corruption scandals involving AMLO’s allies being ignored by the public, the president has finally been put on the defensive and forced to respond to tough questions.
AMLO has fed the media frenzy with blatantly ridiculous responses to the allegations including the fact that the amount of money wasn’t as much as Lozoya stole (as if a smaller bribe is somehow acceptable). AMLO’s critics have enjoyed recent headlines about corruption within Morena and almost certainly feel they are dominating the media battlespace of newspaper columns and online commentary.
AMLO’s opponents are now taking the Pio Lopez Obrador video to Mexico’s attorney general and election regulators in the hopes that they can get a legal ruling against Morena.
Five reasons AMLO is winning
Lopez Obrador was elected because Mexicans were very angry about corruption and he has a mandate to target and prosecute the corrupt. His prosecution of Lozoya and the evidence that has been released about corruption by the PAN and PRI have confirmed the worst rumors of corruption that circulated in recent years. In spite of the counter-allegations against his own administration, AMLO is betting that these corruption prosecutions will be seen as progress by Mexico’s population and he’s probably correct.
None of AMLO’s opponents among the traditional political parties can claim the mantle of clean government. Perhaps a political party with a clean record could turn corruption allegations against Morena into some sort of political victory, but every one of AMLO’s opponents has been hit with corruption allegations worse than those that are hitting the current president.
The PRI is imploding. AMLO’s prosecution of Lozoya and Lozoya’s allegations of corruption within the Peña Nieto administration have turned the traditionally hierarchical PRI party organization into a circular firing squad. The illusion that PRI politicians will protect each other has gone away.
The Lozoya case is boosting AMLO’s effort to roll back energy reform. The specific evidence provided by Lozoya appears to prove that bribery occurred during the energy reform process. This gives AMLO the political capital to undo the constitutionally binding aspects of EPN’s energy reform that he has so far avoided touching.
The media focus on corruption means less attention to coronavirus deaths, organized crime or the recession. Lopez Obrador has mismanaged the pandemic, security and the economy but remains above 50% approval. Part of how he can keep that streak going is by focusing on the anti-corruption fight. Every day that Mexico’s media is arguing over corruption, they aren’t hitting the issues where AMLO is weaker.
AMLO’s politicized anti-corruption fight will continue
When I wrote a first draft of this piece, I considered two questions:
Will AMLO continue to press forward on corruption prosecutions in spite of allegations against his own party?
Will he be able to maintain a separation between the PRI and PAN politicians he is targeting and the members of the business community who he must maintain as allies?
The answer to both is almost certainly yes. Lopez Obrador is in control of the anti-corruption agenda and benefitting from it. The corruption of his political opponents has given him a lot to work with. Even better for him, he can use his control of the process to avoid prosecuting his allies in the business community while holding the threat of corruption prosecutions over them to keep them in line. Transparency advocates want AMLO to build anti-corruption institutions that investigate and prosecute independent of political pressure, but the current system is working for AMLO and he has no reason to change it.
Early in his term, Lopez Obrador used the threat of corruption investigations to obtain political victories. For example, he had the Financial Intelligence Unit freeze the accounts of Supreme Court Judge Eduardo Medina Mora in order to convince him to resign, then had the case dropped. A similar dynamic played out with CRE regulator Guillermo Garcia Alcocer.
Some analysts have publicly suggested that none of the accused politicians including Lozoya will face jail. As with his previous anti-corruption efforts, Lopez Obrador may be negotiating for political position or using the cases for media benefits. It is easier for Lopez Obrador to highlight the corruption evidence in the media than to run a successful corruption prosecution. However, top PRI leaders clearly believe that AMLO could potentially prosecute and convict them and are taking that threat seriously.
To the extent that AMLO can be accused of hypocrisy, it hasn’t impacted his approval ratings or his ability to govern. Some day, there may be a corruption case that serves as the straw that breaks the camel’s back and moves Mexican public opinion against Lopez Obrador. We’re far away from that moment and none of the cases that have been publicized so far appear to be the one that will do so.
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