Violent crime is likely to increase across the region in late 2020
Regional trends including pandemic lockdowns and recession are already driving crime increases in multiple countries
The coming months are likely to see an increase in violent crime across Latin America. Many countries will see an increase in homicides during the second half of this year, ending the year at levels higher than 2019. Muggings, assaults and business robberies are also likely to increase.
In a normal year, it would not make sense to connect the trends of street crime or business robberies in Buenos Aires, Bogota and Mexico. There is rarely reason to expect them to move in the same direction. The security situation in every major city is usually driven by different local factors.
As you’ve noticed, 2020 is not a normal year. The coronavirus pandemic means that some of the factors impacting the security situation are similar in many countries:
Every country has experienced some version of reduced foot traffic due to pandemic lockdowns. While this initially led to a drop in crime in many countries, the emptier streets are increasing opportunities for daytime muggings and robberies.
Every economy is going through a deep recession, something that often causes an increase in crime. Economic recoveries are expected to be slow.
High youth unemployment and lack of educational opportunities will increase gang recruitment.
The use of police to enforce lockdowns and other pandemic-related policies has left fewer resources for combating crime.
The closures of businesses and reduced movements of people have meant less private security presence in many neighborhoods.
Urban criminal organizations took advantage of the pandemic to expand and exercise their control over neighborhoods where government presence was limited. In some cases in this hemisphere, unrelated groups appeared to learn from or mimic each other across country lines.
Unrelated to the pandemic but true in most countries in the hemisphere, the public’s trust in law enforcement was at a low point entering this year. Protests in the second half of last year contributed to that.
Data and anecdotes point to a crime increase in recent months
In conversations I’ve had with analysts across the region over the past two months, there is a general foreboding sense that violent crime is increasing in the largest cities. I’ve heard multiple comments from private sector analysts that more people are being mugged, violence is being threatened or used more often during those muggings, extortion attempts and phone calls are increasing, and criminals appear more organized as they target businesses for robberies.
Collecting data to prove those claims is difficult. Even where data exist, I can’t compare apples to apples across cities because each city collects and reports differently. However, the available data from governments and media articles do point to crime increases.
Several recent security updates (Argentina, Brazil, Guatemala) contained data showing that crime either increased during the lockdowns or initially dropped during lockdowns and increased in recent months as those lockdowns wore on, particularly in the large cities. Additionally, here are recent articles claiming increased crime of different types in Bogota, Caracas, Lima, Quito and Santiago.
While robberies in Mexico City remain lower than average, the graph below shows the data from Estado de Mexico demonstrating a large spike in reported business robberies in June and July to well above 2019 levels. Across the whole country, homicides in Mexico remain right around their 2019 levels, something that should not have occurred given coronavirus related lockdowns.
Above: Reported business robberies in Estado de Mexico.
Source: Semaforo Delictivo
Separate from the security statistics, polling is also showing concerns in the perception of security around the region including in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico. Using polling to understand security is a mixed bag. Polls can help capture violent crime experiences that may be underreported (a chronic issue in Latin America), but polls and public perception of crime can also be skewed by media hype of violent incidents that may be unrepresentative of the national situation.
Thanks for reading
I made a prediction up top that crime will increase and I like to check my predictions. In early February of 2021 - once most countries have published their annual crime data - I’ll revisit this piece and see if it’s true that violent crime and business robberies rose throughout most of the region in the second half of this year. If I find better data before then, I’ll report it in the newsletter. If any of you see data, please feel free to send it my way.
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