Guatemala - Security Update - August 2020

Homicides are down but other crimes are up.

Source: CIEN presentation of police statistics via Juan Carlos Zapata Twitter account

Homicides are down

Homicides are down in Guatemala by 34% this year. As is true in most countries in the region, the coronavirus lockdown clearly plays some role in the homicide reduction. There is a simple logic that suggests fewer people on the streets (and taking Guatemala’s very dangerous bus routes) means less violence. 

However, that’s not the whole story in Guatemala. Take a look at that chart again and notice that homicides dropped dramatically in February, before pandemic lockdowns were an issue, to their lowest point in over a decade. Some other factor drove homicide rates down before the country went on lockdown.

President Giammattei, who took office in January, announced a “state of prevention” in 12 municipalities in January and February of this year. An analysis by Carlos Mendoza shows homicides decreased in all of those municipalities during those opening months of the new administration. However, homicides dropped across the country at the same time as it dropped in those municipalities, meaning it is difficult to credit the president’s efforts. Additionally, extortions increased in eight of those 12 municipalities.

Even as homicides have decreased, other crimes in the country have increased. 

Robberies of businesses have doubled this year. Robberies of residences are up by over 30% compared to 2019 levels. Police have tried to explain away those crime increases by blaming the reduced presence of private security guards or people being away from their homes.

Extortions are down in 2020, but that small drop comes after a sharp increase in reported extortions that has occurred since 2018. As the graphic below shows, relative to the last 15 years, extortions remain at record high levels in 2020 even as the country has seen a gradual drop in the homicide rate over that time.

Source: Informe sobre extorsiones en Guatemala (Junio de 2020)

I spoke to two sources in Guatemala, one is a journalist who covers security issues and the other is a private sector intelligence analyst who works for a US company that operates in the country. Both sources suggested cargo theft increased during the pandemic lockdown, with the intelligence analyst saying gangs are targeting food and electronics shipments. The journalist said that she had heard muggings and express kidnappings decreased in April and May due to the lack of public transportation where many of those attacks occur, but then increased in the capital in June and July to higher than pre-pandemic levels. I could not obtain hard data on those crimes.

A recent report from the International Crisis Group suggested that the drop in homicides in El Salvador was driven by an implicit gang truce. The data and anecdotal reports above suggest a similar dynamic may be playing out in Guatemala. If homicides are decreasing while robberies increase and extortion attempts remain high, that means gangs are being more strategic in their use of violence and not attacking each other as much.

Giammattei’s security decrees appear politicized 

President Alejandro Giammattei was elected on a tough-on-crime platform and his government is promoting the drop in homicides as a success story.  However, in recent months, his policies have focused not on the population centers around the capital but on more rural regions in the country’s Northeast.

In July, the president announced a state of siege (estado de sitio) in five municipalities in Izabal and Alta Verapaz. His decree was not approved by the Congress. So he changed the language to a “state of prevention” (estado de prevencion), which he is allowed to do without Congressional approval. Of the five municipalities within the original state of siege decree, only Morales, Izabal, is considered within police statistics to have a critical level of violence. The government claims they need the additional security forces to attack criminal organizations, hidden runways and coca plantations.

While the state of prevention does not give security forces the same rights to detain suspects as the state of siege, it has been enough for Giammattei to order over 1,000 additional forces from the police and military to the region. The emergency decrees also limit protests and coverage by journalists of the situation. 

Alvaro Colom, Otto Perez Molina and Jimmy Morales all used similar emergency decree authorities to implement security measures in those same region of the country. When Morales declared a state of siege in late 2019, I suggested that the move was political. Morales was targeting political opponents including supporters of presidential candidate Sandra Torres as well as protesters who were opposed to mining and agribusiness projects in the region.

Local activists believe Giammattei’s reasons for the state of siege decrees are similarly political. As InSight Crime reports, the states of siege decrees were supported by the large businesses in the region that claim they face threats that could disrupt their economic activity and want to proceed with land evictions.

Three things to consider moving forward

While homicide rates are down this year, they have begun rising again and July’s homicide rate was close to the late 2019 levels. In the coming months, the factors that drove murders down earlier this year may be overtaken by a violent crime increase driven by the economic recession.

Separate from the security question, Giammattei is also involved in a controversial attempt to replace judges. While that political fight has more to do with Guatemala’s long term corruption issues than the security challenges, any weakening of the judicial system will harm efforts to combat violent crime over the long term.

The fact Congress, which agreed to everything President Morales did, gave such an early rejection to Giammattei’s emergency security measures suggests further challenges ahead for the president. Giammattei will need to rely more heavily on executive orders and may attempt to go around Congress, which will lead to disputes over governance and budgets.

Thanks for reading

Two twitter accounts worth following on Guatemala security and politics are @CIENgt and @DialogosGuate. I also wrote about homicide rates in the Northern Triangle last month.

Please email me at boz@substack.com if you have any questions or comments.