Latin America Risk Report

Latin America Risk Report

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Ecuador - Prediction markets shift against Noboa
Gonzalez is now the favorite according to Polymarket and Kalshi
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Boz
Ramdin's challenges at the OAS
The new secretary general must balance consensus building with action, all while keeping an eye on the DOGE budget chainsaw.
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Boz
US Policy in LatAm - 10 March 2025
Sheinbaum knows Trump cares about crowd size.
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Boz
Friday Reading List - 7 March 2025
Only four more reading list newsletters before the next pause in tariffs
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Boz
Six stories - 6 March 2025
Lots on the IMF and the economy followed by a totally unrelated report about a drone strike in Haiti. At least, I think it's unrelated. It would make…
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Boz
Registration Link for Q1 2025 subscriber Zoom call
The call will be on 12 March at 10:30EDT. Today's newsletter also includes some poll numbers from Mexico, Chile, and Colombia.
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Boz
The Carnival Barker and LatAm Policy
Trump cares more about ratings than results. Latin America will learn to respond accordingly.
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Boz
Trump threatens Venezuela's oil licenses; Venezuela responds by threatening Guyana
Six comments on US policy towards Latin America also including tariffs on Mexico and NGO funding issues.
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Boz

February 2025

Friday Reading List - 28 February 2025
Policy changing by coin flip from one week to the next, whether on Venezuela sanctions or Mexico tariffs
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Boz
Six stories - 27 February 2025
Can a country have a 19% drop in homicides and also have 20 of the world's 50 most violent cities? It's possible. But you should question the data.
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Boz
Honduras - One real poll amid many fakes
The story to watch is whether Nasralla can win the Liberal Party primary and then successfully turn the party into an election machine that works for…
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Boz
Latin America's political coalitions can be defined by their new position on Ukraine
How we understand the hemisphere's left vs right coalitions should shift as the US flips sides at the UN
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Boz
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