Latin America Risk Report

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January 2025

Friday Reading List - 31 January 2025
If the groundhog sees his shadow, there will be early tariffs on Mexico. If he doesn’t, it means six more weeks of trade war threats.
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Boz
Six stories - 30 January 2025
Including two Ecuador pre-mortems describing how analysts will explain the day after why it was so obvious in hindsight that Noboa won or lost the…
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Boz
Ecuador - Polls and prediction markets show a Noboa lead
Markets expect a Noboa win.
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Boz
20 themes to map Trump's LatAm policies
When overwhelmed by the news, try to map it all out
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Boz
The Petro feud puts Trump's coercion-first strategy into practice
This weekend’s Colombia crisis is next week’s Honduras crisis.
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Boz
Friday Reading List - 24 January 2025
Will we ever have another slow news week again?
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Boz
Six stories - 23 January 2025
Comments on conflict on the Colombia-Venezuela border, poll numbers in Ecuador... and cattle gallstone smuggling in Brazil? Sure, why not?
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Boz
Panama: January 2025 poll numbers
President Mulino remains popular but his approval rating dropped 27 points in the past three months
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Boz
Six stories on Trump's inauguration day
Trump and his team plan to stop an invasion from Mexico and invade Panama. But they want to negotiate with Venezuela. Maybe.
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Boz
Five questions and predictions on LatAm policy during Trump’s first 100 days
The odds of tariffs on Mexico and a military strike on cartels are higher than anything that dislodges Maduro from power in Venezuela.
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Boz
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