Latin America has a former president problem
Too many former presidents in prison. Too many former presidents challenging the current political situation. And those lists overlap.
Latin America has a former president problem.
A large number of former presidents are in prison, under house arrest, under investigation for corruption, or in exile to avoid detention. See the map above.
Many countries have former presidents who are overly influential in the current political moment, usually in a negative way. Instead of retiring or acting as responsible elder statespersons, they hold on to power in ways that undermine and challenge their successors. A bullet point list below shows how this challenge crosses the region:
Mexico - AMLO’s influence (and family!) hangs over the current government and ruling party. There is also an issue that no former president has ever been successfully prosecuted for corruption. Even though AMLO promised to fix that and held a referendum on it, that hasn’t changed.
Guatemala - On top of the former presidents in prison and exile, the most recent two former presidents (Morales and Giammattei) continue to influence political coalitions working to undermine the current government of President Arevalo.
Honduras - Former President Zelaya is the husband of the current president and pulls strings in Libre. He and Castro will remain quite influential if Libre wins the upcoming election.1
Nicaragua - Arnoldo Aleman, the only living former president, should be in prison but his alliance with Ortega means he’s not. That alliance is a key reason Ortega was able to consolidate his dictatorship.
Panama - Martinelli is now in exile and a top opponent of the current president, who was once an ally of his.
Colombia - Last week’s political narrative was about Uribe’s influence over next year’s election and the damage to the country’s foreign policy, given how the Trump administration seems willing to protect him.
Venezuela - No living former presidents, but the ghost of Hugo Chavez haunts the country.
Ecuador - Rafael Correa, in exile to avoid prison, has tried and failed three times to get his preferred candidate to win the presidency. In the process, Correa’s influence holds back the country’s left and investigations over corruption under Correa hang over the country’s politics.
Peru - Fujimori’s kids continue to influence the country’s politics while every living former president is in prison or under investigation2.
Bolivia - Evo Morales is evading an arrest warrant while telling his supporters to protest and burn their ballots in the election later this month.
Paraguay - The Colorado Party hinges on the influence of Horacio Cartes.
Brazil - Lula was a former president who is now the current president. Jair Bolsonaro continues to try to run for president next year even though he is banned from doing so and under house arrest.
Chile - While not as much an issue in 2025, the ping pong of former presidents running again between Bachelet and Piñera was a key feature of the previous decade.
Argentina - Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is managing a Peronist party from her balcony while under house arrest.
It is odd and unnerving how the list of overly influential former presidents and the map of presidents in prison, etc, overlap in very negative ways.
Should corruption by former presidents be prosecuted, and at what line should it be done? Some comments:
There is a risk in not prosecuting former presidents.
Impunity for crimes committed during or after their tenure encourages abuses by current and future leaders. The situation becomes particularly bad when there appears to be an unwritten agreement for impunity among presidents.
The risk of failing to prosecute former presidents increases as those leaders attempt to continue exercising outsized influence out of office, particularly if they are able to use their ill-gotten wealth and corruption networks to continue that influence. Some of these populists dominate the debate in ways that harm the ability for a country to move forward.
Yet, there are also risks in prosecuting former presidents.
First, if nearly every former president is prosecuted when they leave office, then it creates incentives for individuals and parties to hold on to power undemocratically. Why would Bukele or Maduro ever leave power if they know their fate will be prison or exile? This balance between impunity and the ability to keep/restore democracy is one of the tougher paradoxes the region faces.
Second, there will often be an accusation of undue “lawfare” and persecution of political opponents (sometimes true and sometimes exaggerated) that can be difficult to navigate. It’s hard to move forward with broad cross-party political coalitions to pass needed legislation when one party feels it is under attack from the other, and the debate is constantly about events that happened under a previous administration.
Third, though a lesser concern and contradicting the previous point, prosecuting the cadre of former presidents loses people who can potentially be important interlocutors in the current political process. When the scenario works correctly, there is something special about the gravitas of the club of retired presidents that can give them important influence and leadership to help countries overcome challenges. That is never built if the former presidents spend their time fending off court cases.
Today’s comments and map build on a short comment I made in yesterday’s newsletter for paying subscribers regarding the debates about Uribe/Kirchner prosecutions. Yesterday’s newsletter, clocking in around 1,400 words, also contained comments about US policy news regarding Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, the OAS, and some broader comments about how the Trump administration’s policies across the region contradict themselves. Tuesday’s newsletter is always free, but you can support this newsletter and receive additional analysis about US policy toward the hemisphere (Monday) and non-US-related regional politics (Thursday) by upgrading to become a paying subscriber.
JOH would also be an influential problem if the National Party won, but he’s in a prison in the US. That is, unless Asfura wins and lobbies Trump for a pardon. Not totally unthinkable in our crazy world.
The investigation against Sagasti is a sham, but the half dozen other presidents under investigation probably deserve it at some level.