Eight initial comments on Maduro's detention

Joy, chaos, uncertainty.

Early this morning, US military forces attacked a few locations around Caracas. Nicolas Maduro and his wife have been detained and removed from the country.

We’re all learning more right now. Instant analysis tends to be overtaken by facts on the ground rather quickly. So, while I know everyone wants to know what this means for Venezuela over the next year or two, there are many scenarios that could play out depending on what happens over the coming hours or days. Below is my best effort, with the acknowledgement that it could be upended or proven wrong by new events rather quickly.

There will be much joy in Venezuela. Surveys showed that about 80% of Venezuelans wanted Maduro gone. About 70% voted against him in the 2024 election. Don’t doubt that cheering and happiness will be the major initial response of many Venezuelans inside and outside the country today. That’s despite the uncertainty of what comes next. That is despite whatever occurred during the military attack. People will be worried and should be worried, but there will be an initial outpouring of joy. Even amid criticisms of how this was done, the legal authorities, and the lack of a transition plan, don’t deny people their joy. And don’t fall for the propaganda of anyone claiming most Venezuelans are angry about this. The initial reaction of the vast majority of the country will be thrilled to have Maduro gone, even if most are also very worried about what comes next.

This sort of operation almost certainly had some form of inside support. I’m surprised that this operation occurred the way it did. I thought this sort of extraction operation was far too risky. The fact it occurred so smoothly is a testament to the talent of the US military and the civilians supporting them. It’s also a sign that there was some inside support within the regime and the Venezuelan military for the operation. One big question is whether that support included a post-Maduro plan of any sort or if it was just a deal to get rid of him. That is a key piece of info I’m looking for in the coming days in trying to figure out what comes next. But even if this extraction operation included a deal for what comes next, the next point will hold true.

Uncertainty rather than optimism or pessimism. Many people will claim there is a clear path to what comes next. Already, this morning, I’ve spoken with some people convinced that a transition to Edmundo Gonzalez is a near certainty in the coming days while others think that Maduro’s exit will just leave the Chavistas in charge, and as brutal as ever, for years to come. It’s actually a roll of the dice and a bit of chaos. Honest analysis means it’s ok to say “I don’t know.” There are scenarios in which Delcy takes over, though that is complicated by the fact she is coincidentally out of the country in Moscow this morning (or not, I’m hearing contradictory rumors on this). Or Diosdado, Padrino Lopez, some random colonel, some random civilian, or the opposition led by Edmundo Gonzalez and Maria Corina Machado. There will be a power struggle within the Chavista leadership, a power struggle among military leaders, and outside forces including the opposition, neighboring countries, and criminal groups demanding a say. The honest answer is that I don’t know exactly what will happen and I strongly doubt others do either. Some will guess correctly and others will guess incorrectly, but don’t fall for the hindsight bias on this.

Scenarios within chaos. When I wrote about Venezuela’s scenarios in early December, I said that “chaos” was more likely than a “miracle transition” in which Gonzalez and Machado take over and restore democracy. I think that remains true. However, now that we are in the “chaos box,” as one friend called it, there are plenty of sub-scenarios within that box, some more chaotic and violent than others. I’ll write more about those scenarios in the coming days, once there is more info.

One likely scenario is multiple changes. The person who takes over Venezuela’s de facto presidency today is not necessarily the person who will control the country in 12 months or even 12 days later. Don’t assume the next transition is the last one we’ll see this year. Or the one after that.

Debate what happened. Go ahead and argue about the legitimacy, constitutionality, strategy, and precedent of this operation. I know I will. The geopolitical and US implications of today’s events should be discussed in depth. They cannot be glossed over because the initial outcome was successful. We should specifically worry about the precedent that it sets for other countries to conduct similar operations. However, with that said….

The US and the region should work toward a peaceful and democratic transition. Maduro’s exit is an opportunity. The worst thing that can happen is that a bunch of people decide to argue about what Trump did this morning and leave Venezuela to manage its own chaos. I’m not suggesting that Congressional Democrats and Lula jump on board in support of Trump and his actions, but if all they offer is criticism of what’s already occurred, then it’s a lost opportunity. This is a moment for regional leadership to discuss how they are going to help Venezuela transition back to democracy, and that should not get lost amid the criticisms of what just occurred. The debate we should have this morning is how to turn this event from something chaotic into something that is sustainably positive for the country and the region.

I’ll be writing plenty more in the days ahead. Please subscribe.