I’m holding an open comment thread about Venezuelan politics.
This week there were two standoffs at the National Assembly, the US announced support for a negotiated settlement leading to new elections, and Guaido plans more protests in the coming days. It was a busy week, even by Venezuelan standards. As the two sides appear at a stalemate, more twists and turns are likely in the coming months. Ask me your Venezuela-related questions and I’ll do my best to answer them.
Update (11AM EST): Stepping away for a while. I’ll continue answering questions as they come in over the coming days. Thanks to everyone who has participated so far.
What are your thoughts on what sectoral sanctions have done in terms of the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela? The weisbrot Sachs study seems to establish a causal link between sanctions and a worsening in the crisis, but a paper critiquing their methodology came out in the brookings institute that mentioned that the bulk of the deterioration happened before sanctions. And a study authored by Francisco Rodriguez that supported WS findings also said it was insufficient to establish a causal link. Where do you stand on this debate? Have sanctions been the main reason for worsening of the crisis, or has it been maduros corruption and incompetent policy?
Is there truly a single Trump administration strategy on Venezuela, or is it a jumble of internal interests with opposing theories of change? Going into 2020 what do you make of State vs. NSC divisions, or the Prince + Giuliani backchanneling?
Do you believe any potential incoming (opposing) administration will have to strike deals with high profile Bolichicos, offering amnesty in exchange for their financial/political support?
Several lower level officers have released a video announcing 'Operacion Aurora' - efforts to restore democracy to the country. Will Maduro be concerned about this, or does he still have broad support from the military?
Boz, highlighting some points here that I think are worth mentioning followed by questions for you:
I think what you have mentioned in one of the points below about dollarization and how the economy is being split into people using foreign currency (mainly those based in Caracas) and those still getting paid and using Bolivares, is going to be key going forward - not for the economy, but for Chavismo's support base. Maduro may end up losing the little support he continues to enjoy because of this. Do you foresee this happening sometime this year?
From the comments below, it seems there are 2 main things keeping Maduro in power: military support and international support specifically from Russia, China, Cuba and perhaps Turkey. For the military, I suppose Maduro will continue offering them as many incentives as he possibly can, because he knows his survival in office depends on it. But the military will probably be willing to turn on him if they receive reliable assurances that they would be allowed to receive some immunity or protection for doing so - is this likely to happen though? Who can give any assurances of immunity to the military at this point, Guaido?
On sanctions, I totally agree with your points below - they are really not achieving the sort of the objectives that they are meant to, and are instead pulling Maduro and his international allies much closer together, and in fact making the Chavistas more reliant than before on Russia and China. But the question is, if not sanctions, then what? What can be done?
Finally, one last question, is Maduro really the one calling all the shots? What are the chances of an internal fissure that results in a shuffle of leadership with Maduro out and someone else from the Chavista camp taking charge - someone more pliant to regional and international actors like the US and Lima group?
How have the reforms that maduro has implemented (no more price / currency controls) changed the economy? Are the poor benefiting? is this different from dollarization?
Can you discuss the domestic security implications of the Maduro administration's recent move to formally incorporate pro-Maduro colectivos into the Bolivarian military?
How will the diplomatic standoff against Maduro fare in 2020, considering a change in tone from Argentina and the US in recent days? Is the "Cerco Diplomático" strategy over, or will the international community somehow coordinate another offensive alongside the opposition?
Which factor played the biggest role in causing the recent humanitarian crisis if you had to choose: 1. Venezuela’s historically absolute reliance on their oil industry. 2. The Inflation Maduro has caused. Or 3. The economic sanctions the US has placed on Venezuela?
What is the threshold for Maduro leaving power? Do you have scenarios for the process of regime change (i.e Maduro needs to lose x amount of money to lose power)
Let’s say that Venezuela stopped paying off their debts to Russia. Recently, it seems that Maduro is blocking aid to the people, so if he were to stop using funds to pay off Russia, would he use those funds to feed the population? If not, what would he use them for?
Can you explain the Hxagon model, and how that led you to calculate the 80% chance of Maduro being removed in 2020 prediction? Is there any way for you to quantify how much US sanctions have attributed to the 80% number.
What was your process for converting qualitative analysis into a quantitative probability? How did you use the variables/key factors of Maduro's likely fall from power to get to a percentage?
What are the most likely and true upsides for the US removing sanctions. Based on threads I’ve read here it seems like simply removing sanctions will not solve the humanitarian crisis
An article in CSIS by Moises Rendon indicates that even if sanctions were removed that oil revenues wouldn’t go to the poor but to entrench the Maduro regime by ensuring the loyalty of military officials. Do you think it’s likely that revenues will be used to help the poor? And do you think that issuing new bonds through US markets would cure the debt crisis currently in Venezuela?
Is there a high chance that senior military officials will betray Maduro? Reuter’s reporter in 2017 that in the aftermath of sanctions Maduros approval rating went up by 6 percent. With that in mind is this causing waves of support to go to Maduro? And if it is then is it more probable that he will be ousted w/o sanctions?
Boz, this comment threat is a terrific idea. Thank you for building such a valuable informational portal on LatAm politics. My question: If you were tasked with forecasting Venezuela's economic and political future over the next 24 months in the form of scenarios (anywhere from 2-6 different scenarios), how would you describe those scenarios?
I am naive about how to best handle this situation. My online girlfriend is willing to consider leaving Venezuela. I live in the USA. She and I are willing to consider vacationing in Ecuador, and likely moving there if we like it. She has an expired Venezuelan passport, but getting an extension has not been easy. I would like to fly her to Ecuador and then back to Caracas. Then make solid plans on a possible move. She knows of bus rides available to Colombia and back.. What can she reasonably do? Wait for the extension? Just fly or bus without it? Declare her a refugee? Maybe you know people who faced this problem and what they did? Thank you for your effort.
Are sanctions helping diversify Venezuelan markets away from oil? Specifically, are they helping the private sector improve and take a bigger role in the Venezuelan market?
The article above discusses the effect that sanctions have had on Maduro new economic decisions shifting away from socialism and towards liberalization. My question is: if sanctions are the reason why Maduro is adopting these policies now, is it probable that Maduro will reimpose these policies if sanctions are removed, considering his socialist background?
If the US lifted sanctions on the country, do you think citizens would be able to get more access to food and medicine and would the economy be generally better off ?
We came across some evidence that explained that Maduro isn’t interested in debt restructuring but we didn’t understand for what reason he would not do that. Do you believe there is a reason for Maduro to not restructure the debt?
The US government only began to oppose the Chavez government when the Chavez government expropriated Exon. Getting Exon back in US hands has always been the driving force of past US governments. Once Trump appointed the Exon President as the Secretary of State, I thought for sure that a coup de etat was in the making to get Exon back in US hands. I am curious to know what you think of Exon's role in the Guaido government? Was handing Exon back to the US part of the agreement of US supporting Guaido?
Also what is the chance that the refugee crisis causes a recession in Latin America because of instability and decreasing investor confidence? Since these countries are highly liberalized I think that instability from the refugee crisis might impact economic growth in the short term
Thanks for hosting this, Boz! Have a bunch of question...
1) What options do you think Guaido has, other than perpetual rallies that seem to be getting steadily smaller?
2) Why has the public become so disillusioned with Guaido's campaign - is it just that they thought the change would happen sooner, and then were disappointed when Maduro stayed in power?
3) What does the military think of all this, and why have they continued to back Maduro, despite pressure from the population/international community?
4) Have you seen any military members desert over the last several months? Or switch sides?
5) Are local security forces on the same page as the military?
6) If Guaido can't rally the people, is there anyone else who has popular support who may make a better candidate?
7) All said, is military support the main reason Maduro is still in power, or are there other forces that are keeping him in office/who else might stand in the way of ousting Maduro?
8) How much of the population resent the US over sanctions, or do they see Maduro as the one at fault?
Will Venezuela be able to keep the interests of Russia and China? If Venezuela is unable to pay back debts, how long will it be until other governments stop supporting Maduro?
First, is it likely that the US intervenes with military operations to oust Maduro?
Second, there was a really good article by CNBC in which they found in 15/16 scenarios with similar hyper inflation to Venezuela the regimes were ousted. Given that is it likely that Maduro would be ousted w/o sanctions?
Hypothetical here, but say an International coalition of western hemisphere forces lead by the US stationed troops near the Venezuelan border. They then gave an ultimatum: Maduro out by X date or we remove him from office to restore democracy in the country and end the migration humanitarian crisis. Would this not scare the armed forces, the one institution that holds up the regime? Even if they know it is a bluff, the mere presence of the forces should scare enough of the higher brass in Venezuela causing division within the Maduro camp. A key to this strategy's success would be a backdoor agreement between the Lima group + others in the international community that this move was indeed a bluff, and that there was no intention of an actual invasion.
If the US were to drop sanctions, what sort of alternative measures will they do instead if any? Would if be military intervention which the administration And Bolton have said before?
In a debate round, I heard a team cite a claim from LARR that there is an 80% chance of a Maduro ouster in 2020. Is that an accurate representation of your opinion? Has that value shifted recently? What's the methodology you used?
How will Maduro's hold on power throughout 2020 (especially in light of the recent developments in the AN) impact the already strained relationship with Colombia?
What are your thoughts on what sectoral sanctions have done in terms of the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela? The weisbrot Sachs study seems to establish a causal link between sanctions and a worsening in the crisis, but a paper critiquing their methodology came out in the brookings institute that mentioned that the bulk of the deterioration happened before sanctions. And a study authored by Francisco Rodriguez that supported WS findings also said it was insufficient to establish a causal link. Where do you stand on this debate? Have sanctions been the main reason for worsening of the crisis, or has it been maduros corruption and incompetent policy?
Is there truly a single Trump administration strategy on Venezuela, or is it a jumble of internal interests with opposing theories of change? Going into 2020 what do you make of State vs. NSC divisions, or the Prince + Giuliani backchanneling?
Do you believe any potential incoming (opposing) administration will have to strike deals with high profile Bolichicos, offering amnesty in exchange for their financial/political support?
Several lower level officers have released a video announcing 'Operacion Aurora' - efforts to restore democracy to the country. Will Maduro be concerned about this, or does he still have broad support from the military?
Boz, highlighting some points here that I think are worth mentioning followed by questions for you:
I think what you have mentioned in one of the points below about dollarization and how the economy is being split into people using foreign currency (mainly those based in Caracas) and those still getting paid and using Bolivares, is going to be key going forward - not for the economy, but for Chavismo's support base. Maduro may end up losing the little support he continues to enjoy because of this. Do you foresee this happening sometime this year?
From the comments below, it seems there are 2 main things keeping Maduro in power: military support and international support specifically from Russia, China, Cuba and perhaps Turkey. For the military, I suppose Maduro will continue offering them as many incentives as he possibly can, because he knows his survival in office depends on it. But the military will probably be willing to turn on him if they receive reliable assurances that they would be allowed to receive some immunity or protection for doing so - is this likely to happen though? Who can give any assurances of immunity to the military at this point, Guaido?
On sanctions, I totally agree with your points below - they are really not achieving the sort of the objectives that they are meant to, and are instead pulling Maduro and his international allies much closer together, and in fact making the Chavistas more reliant than before on Russia and China. But the question is, if not sanctions, then what? What can be done?
Finally, one last question, is Maduro really the one calling all the shots? What are the chances of an internal fissure that results in a shuffle of leadership with Maduro out and someone else from the Chavista camp taking charge - someone more pliant to regional and international actors like the US and Lima group?
How have the reforms that maduro has implemented (no more price / currency controls) changed the economy? Are the poor benefiting? is this different from dollarization?
Can you discuss how illegal gold mining and gold exports are also keeping Maduro in power?
Can you discuss the domestic security implications of the Maduro administration's recent move to formally incorporate pro-Maduro colectivos into the Bolivarian military?
Sanctions have been placed on Venezuela for a very long time, so why haven’t they pressured Maduro and his inner circle out of power yet
How will the diplomatic standoff against Maduro fare in 2020, considering a change in tone from Argentina and the US in recent days? Is the "Cerco Diplomático" strategy over, or will the international community somehow coordinate another offensive alongside the opposition?
Which factor played the biggest role in causing the recent humanitarian crisis if you had to choose: 1. Venezuela’s historically absolute reliance on their oil industry. 2. The Inflation Maduro has caused. Or 3. The economic sanctions the US has placed on Venezuela?
What is the threshold for Maduro leaving power? Do you have scenarios for the process of regime change (i.e Maduro needs to lose x amount of money to lose power)
Let’s say that Venezuela stopped paying off their debts to Russia. Recently, it seems that Maduro is blocking aid to the people, so if he were to stop using funds to pay off Russia, would he use those funds to feed the population? If not, what would he use them for?
hi Boz! Can u explain the best reason to keep sanctions? Thanks .!
Hi Boz, do you have any evidence that removing sanctions will cause a war? And if you don't agree, do you have any counter evidence? Thanks!
Can you explain the Hxagon model, and how that led you to calculate the 80% chance of Maduro being removed in 2020 prediction? Is there any way for you to quantify how much US sanctions have attributed to the 80% number.
What was your process for converting qualitative analysis into a quantitative probability? How did you use the variables/key factors of Maduro's likely fall from power to get to a percentage?
What are the most likely and true upsides for the US removing sanctions. Based on threads I’ve read here it seems like simply removing sanctions will not solve the humanitarian crisis
How effective have sanctions been in curbing terrorism in the region?
Are there any hegemonic implications of the US' Venezuela policy? Not really specific to sanctions.
An article in CSIS by Moises Rendon indicates that even if sanctions were removed that oil revenues wouldn’t go to the poor but to entrench the Maduro regime by ensuring the loyalty of military officials. Do you think it’s likely that revenues will be used to help the poor? And do you think that issuing new bonds through US markets would cure the debt crisis currently in Venezuela?
Is there a high chance that senior military officials will betray Maduro? Reuter’s reporter in 2017 that in the aftermath of sanctions Maduros approval rating went up by 6 percent. With that in mind is this causing waves of support to go to Maduro? And if it is then is it more probable that he will be ousted w/o sanctions?
Boz, this comment threat is a terrific idea. Thank you for building such a valuable informational portal on LatAm politics. My question: If you were tasked with forecasting Venezuela's economic and political future over the next 24 months in the form of scenarios (anywhere from 2-6 different scenarios), how would you describe those scenarios?
Is liberalization, dollarization, and privatization happening in Venezuela? If so, is it partly because of Sanctions ?
Boz, Do you think as a result of US sanctions on Venezuela oil prices have risen there. If so what is the detriment to that?
I am naive about how to best handle this situation. My online girlfriend is willing to consider leaving Venezuela. I live in the USA. She and I are willing to consider vacationing in Ecuador, and likely moving there if we like it. She has an expired Venezuelan passport, but getting an extension has not been easy. I would like to fly her to Ecuador and then back to Caracas. Then make solid plans on a possible move. She knows of bus rides available to Colombia and back.. What can she reasonably do? Wait for the extension? Just fly or bus without it? Declare her a refugee? Maybe you know people who faced this problem and what they did? Thank you for your effort.
I find the hxagon model fascinating. What would you say are its strengths and weaknesses?
Are sanctions helping diversify Venezuelan markets away from oil? Specifically, are they helping the private sector improve and take a bigger role in the Venezuelan market?
Do you believe that sources of revenue such as drug trafficking and black money are significant enough to sustain the Maduro regime?
https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/12/18/more-dollars-and-fewer-protests-in-venezuela
https://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuela-quietly-loosens-grip-on-market-tempering-economic-crisis-11568718002
The article above discusses the effect that sanctions have had on Maduro new economic decisions shifting away from socialism and towards liberalization. My question is: if sanctions are the reason why Maduro is adopting these policies now, is it probable that Maduro will reimpose these policies if sanctions are removed, considering his socialist background?
Can you discuss the potential future impacts of the Venezuelan refugee crisis on Colombia? Thank you!
What can Russia do with Citgo and PDVSA assets? What would a Russian oil “hegemon” be able to do?
If the US lifted sanctions on the country, do you think citizens would be able to get more access to food and medicine and would the economy be generally better off ?
We came across some evidence that explained that Maduro isn’t interested in debt restructuring but we didn’t understand for what reason he would not do that. Do you believe there is a reason for Maduro to not restructure the debt?
What are the impacts of the US lifting sanctions on Venezuela?
The US government only began to oppose the Chavez government when the Chavez government expropriated Exon. Getting Exon back in US hands has always been the driving force of past US governments. Once Trump appointed the Exon President as the Secretary of State, I thought for sure that a coup de etat was in the making to get Exon back in US hands. I am curious to know what you think of Exon's role in the Guaido government? Was handing Exon back to the US part of the agreement of US supporting Guaido?
If it is unlikely that US does military intervention, what sort of alternate measure would they take instead
Also what is the chance that the refugee crisis causes a recession in Latin America because of instability and decreasing investor confidence? Since these countries are highly liberalized I think that instability from the refugee crisis might impact economic growth in the short term
Thanks for hosting this, Boz! Have a bunch of question...
1) What options do you think Guaido has, other than perpetual rallies that seem to be getting steadily smaller?
2) Why has the public become so disillusioned with Guaido's campaign - is it just that they thought the change would happen sooner, and then were disappointed when Maduro stayed in power?
3) What does the military think of all this, and why have they continued to back Maduro, despite pressure from the population/international community?
4) Have you seen any military members desert over the last several months? Or switch sides?
5) Are local security forces on the same page as the military?
6) If Guaido can't rally the people, is there anyone else who has popular support who may make a better candidate?
7) All said, is military support the main reason Maduro is still in power, or are there other forces that are keeping him in office/who else might stand in the way of ousting Maduro?
8) How much of the population resent the US over sanctions, or do they see Maduro as the one at fault?
Will Venezuela be able to keep the interests of Russia and China? If Venezuela is unable to pay back debts, how long will it be until other governments stop supporting Maduro?
Would It be possible to get access to the evidence that mentions how Maduro has an 80% chance to be ousted from office?
First, is it likely that the US intervenes with military operations to oust Maduro?
Second, there was a really good article by CNBC in which they found in 15/16 scenarios with similar hyper inflation to Venezuela the regimes were ousted. Given that is it likely that Maduro would be ousted w/o sanctions?
Hypothetical here, but say an International coalition of western hemisphere forces lead by the US stationed troops near the Venezuelan border. They then gave an ultimatum: Maduro out by X date or we remove him from office to restore democracy in the country and end the migration humanitarian crisis. Would this not scare the armed forces, the one institution that holds up the regime? Even if they know it is a bluff, the mere presence of the forces should scare enough of the higher brass in Venezuela causing division within the Maduro camp. A key to this strategy's success would be a backdoor agreement between the Lima group + others in the international community that this move was indeed a bluff, and that there was no intention of an actual invasion.
What are the implications if Russia were to gain the PDVSA?
If the US were to drop sanctions, what sort of alternative measures will they do instead if any? Would if be military intervention which the administration And Bolton have said before?
How did you arrive at your quantification that there is an 80% chance Maduro leaves by 2020?
In a debate round, I heard a team cite a claim from LARR that there is an 80% chance of a Maduro ouster in 2020. Is that an accurate representation of your opinion? Has that value shifted recently? What's the methodology you used?
How will Maduro's hold on power throughout 2020 (especially in light of the recent developments in the AN) impact the already strained relationship with Colombia?
Is there a way to solve the hyperinflation in Venezuela?
Do US sanctions have any bearing on Venezuela’s use of Cuban counter-intelligence ops?