Two presidents reshape their Supreme Courts
Bolsonaro and AMLO are both moving to reshape their Supreme Courts in ways that make checks on their power less likely.
President Jair Bolsonaro nominated Kassio Marques to replace Celso de Mello on the Supreme Court. This AP article describes the controversy well.
Marques is a moderate. He’s approved by the Centrão coalition in the Congress, Justice Gilmar Mendes and the national bar association.
Above: Image from Facebook Live event where Bolsonaro announced the nomination
Naming Marques was a good move if Bolsonaro’s goal was to consolidate political support from key institutions that the president has alienated in recent months. Centrão is a coalition that can be easily bought off with positions and pork to help Bolsonaro avoid the potential impeachment inquiries he faces in the Congress.
The nomination angered the evangelical community and some of Bolsonaro’s most extreme supporters. Bolsonaro had previously promised to name an evangelical to the court. He appealed to supporters during the election campaign and first year in office by promising a justice who would represent evangelical views on various issues including abortion and LGBT rights. Now he’s backed down from that.
The naming of a centrist associated with some of the more corrupt members of Congress also brought criticisms from those who have been upset with the recent economic policies coming from the president. While the president’s approval rating has been strong, he has reportedly been losing support from his own governing coalition including the military wing and economic wing of his cabinet. The pro-business coalition hears echoes of the PT’s social programs and question the president’s commitment to a sustainable budget. That economic group views Centrão as their opponent in getting Congress to rein the president in.
While Marques is widely praised as a moderate move, there are some who allege that the appointment is intended to help the president dodge his own corruption scandals. If Bolsonaro’s son Flavio and the Centrão coalition are in favor of this appointment, it’s a potential signal that the president is moving a judge into position that can help his family as corruption cases reach the judiciary.
Bolsonaro has promised a future vacancy to the evangelical community and he’s guaranteed at least one more appointment next year due to mandatory judicial retirements. The president believes there is time to re-earn the evangelical community’s support. That’s true if his focus is the election in 2022. However, if he needs them for a political battle in the coming months, the president may find his base of support less eager to support and mobilize for his agenda.
AMLO gets his anti-corruption referendum
Mexico’s Supreme Court ruled 6-5 that President Lopez Obrador’s referendum to prosecute former presidents is constitutional as long as he uses their reworded question that doesn’t specifically name the former presidents. That’s quite a favor from the high court.
The ruling was done under duress. AMLO threatened to change the constitution and weaken the Supreme Court’s power if they did not rule in his favor.
The Supreme Court was bowing to political reality. The president and his crusade against past corruption remain popular. AMLO does have a large enough political bloc to enforce his threat to reform the constitution and weaken their power. They have to pick and choose their moments to check the president’s power and it wasn’t worth the fight over this relatively symbolic referendum.
Lopez Obrador’s next move will be to get the referendum to run concurrent with the midterm elections next year. That should be impossible under Mexico’s electoral rules, but AMLO has shown an ability to pressure the system to bend to his will.
The criticisms of AMLO’s actions have been harsh. A Financial Times editorial calls Mexico’s president an authoritarian populist. However, AMLO is still winning the political battles over anti-corruption. Calling out his hypocrisy and authoritarian tendencies feels good for the media and his political opponents, but this is an issue that plays to his strengths and he wins as long as it remains a top topic of discussion (unlike the economy or security).
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