The November 2020 protest wave
Peru kicked out its president. Guatemala's Congress started on fire. What does that mean for 2021?
Happy December. Recognizing that the problems of this year won’t magically go away when the calendar flips to 2021, I’m still glad to be in the final month of 2020.
In mid-September, I wrote that the region was primed for a new protest wave. In late October, I wrote a list of protests around the region that month and promised I would put together a similar list for November. Here is that list from November:
Peru’s Congress kicked out its president and then protests forced the interim president to resign.
Guatemala’s Congress started on fire during a protest movement that continues this week.
A round of anti-government protests is being planned in Honduras. Those protests are at least partially inspired by Guatemala’s movement, but also focus on local corruption.
Argentina saw its ninth large anti-government protest in the past six months.
Various groups protested the inauguration of President Luis Arce in Bolivia, with some falsely claiming that he stole the election.
A new round of protests occurred in Chile, with several dozen protesters being detained by authorities.
Protests regarding racial justice spiked in Brazil when private security guards at a supermarket beat and killed a black man.
Police opened fire with live ammunition at a group of feminist protesters in Cancun, Mexico, wounding several people.
As I like to stress, each protest has its own unique causes and circumstances. I do not claim that these protests are all the same nor that one causes another. The protests in Colombia in September did not lead to Peru’s interim president being tossed out after six days in office in November. But it is useful to step back and see the bigger picture. There are a lot of protests around the region right now. Quarter four has definitely seen more protests than occurred earlier this year (though most of the region was locked down for months, so that’s not the best measurement).
On top of the protests, November saw signs the hemisphere’s anti-incumbent wave continues. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro saw his allies get beat in both rounds of the mayoral elections. The incumbent president lost reelection in the US and the incumbent prime minister lost in Belize.
Fuel for additional protests waiting for a spark in the coming months
My description of Guatemala’s protests are a useful way to look at the general system. There are issues creating and building resentment among the population and then some event sparks the protest. Police violence can sometimes be a spark, but is often fanning the flames and escalating the protests.
Many countries in the hemisphere are sitting on a lot of fuel for potential protests. High unemployment, hungry populations, resentment at political classes that have failed in managing the crises of 2020 and anger at continued corruption. While that may subside a bit over the upcoming holiday season, these issues are going to continue into 2021.
In many cases, the spark is going to be related to public spending. Cuts in food, transportation or fuel subsidies have been a common spark for protests in the past and will continue to be so, especially in a time of economic weakness.
Additionally, in 2021, the issue of renewed lockdowns or poor vaccine distribution may also lead to protests. Populations want results, but are going to be far less tolerant of lockdowns that take away their economic opportunities. That is particularly true if the politicians ordering those lockdowns commit acts of hypocrisy, telling people to shut down their businesses while continuing to go about their own business as usual. Populations that were willing to stay home in mid-2020 are going to be less docile if they see corruption related to vaccines and healthcare or mismanagement of the pandemic generally in 2021.
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Protests are among the topics I will speak about during the online event on Monday, 14 December, at 1PM EST. This event is for paying subscribers of this newsletter and will run about an hour. If you are a paying subscriber, you’ll get an invitation with login/dial-in instructions in the coming days.