Brazil - Municipal elections show a return of machine politics
Bolsonaro's recent popularity boost did not help the candidates that he endorsed.
Two narratives in Brazil collided this past week.
Both of the articles I linked to above are good nuanced looks at the trends.
Bolsonaro rose to power by being an anti-system politician. He criticized the elites and tapped into the anger at the traditional political parties that have a generally negative reputation in Brazil. Based on his poll numbers, that appears to still be a winning message at the national level.
His recent popularity boost has also come from spending generously to provide a safety net to those who lost jobs in the recession. The fact that Bolsonaro was pressured into the spending by Congress and only signed the bill under political duress has not stopped the president from receiving credit for it.
None of that helped his allies in the mayoral races this past weekend.
All politics are still local
Mayoral elections are traditionally decided on local issues. There was a question after the 2018 election of Bolsonaro whether these local elections may become nationalized given the political climate in the country. For the vast majority of municipal races, the national political environment didn’t seem to matter. The results from last Sunday suggest voters still focus more on local services and issues than on the national symbolism of their votes.
In the few cases where national politics may have played a role in the election, Bolsonaro’s allies did poorly. Of the 13 candidates backed by Bolsonaro, nine lost, two won and two will go to runoff elections. However, the PT, which tried to nationalize some mayoral elections into a referendum against Bolsonaro, also did poorly.
People voted for the center-right party machines
The PSDB won the most municipal positions in this election. The PP, PSD, and DEM all did very well and made significant gains over four years ago. 63% of incumbents won their bids for reelection.
If 2018 was a rebuke to Brazil’s political establishment, 2020 was the return of traditional politicians and machine politics. Perhaps that is because these party machines do better at delivering on promises at the local level. However, if there is a national implication, it could also be a sign of people tiring of the outsider politics that Bolsonaro represents.
Bolsonaro is dependent on his Congressional allies. The eventual split could be ugly.
Bolsonaro did poorly but the parties of his “frenemies” in Congress did well. That means those parties in the Congress hold increasing leverage over the president. Their alliance should hold during the first half of 2021 because both sides have a mutual interest in getting certain agenda items accomplished.
However, this is also setting the stage for a large political fracture at some point prior to the 2022 campaign. Bolsonaro is going to run against the machine politics of the traditional parties because that’s how he operates. At least some of the parties supporting the president in Congress are going to look for a moment in which to pull the rug out from under the president so they can run their own campaigns in 2022.
That likely eventual split will make getting the budget under control difficult. It’s a whole lot easier to keep alliances together when they are approving spending compared to when they have to pass austerity measures.
Bolsonaro should realize that his lack of a political party is harming his chances for reelection and weakening his negotiating position versus the other political elites he needs for his agenda. He will need to begin organizing some sort of formal coalition for his 2022 run. Yet, when politicians look at how Bolsonaro-endorsed candidates did in 2020, they may have second thoughts about running with the president.
Shakeup on the left
Numerous other commentators have noted this and I agree: The PT did poorly and Guilherme Boulos of the PSOL appears to be a rising star on the left. If the PSOL pulls off a victory in the São Paulo mayoral race (or even a strong showing in a runoff loss), it will absolutely shake up the 2022 campaign. Bolsonaro would much rather run against the PT and Lula, now an insider with serious corruption allegations, than someone with outsider credentials.
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