The Biden presidency will shake up US-Brazil relations
A future Biden administration won’t just change the US position on Brazil’s environmental challenges. It will shake up the entire agenda to prioritize those environmental concerns.
Surprisingly, the only Latin American country to be mentioned in the first presidential debate was Brazil. Joe Biden raised the challenges of deforestation and intentional fires in Brazil as problems standing in the way of resolving the climate change crisis. Biden suggested his administration will use both a carrot and a stick, creating an international fund that could raise billions of dollars to help offset the costs of protecting the Amazon while simultaneously threatening unspecified economic punishment if Brazil doesn’t stop the environmental damage.
While climate change is important to many voters, US-Brazil relations are not. However, Biden’s comments certainly got the attention of Brazilian politicians. President Jair Bolsonaro’s response included defending his environmental record, claiming Brazil would not accept a “bribe” to protect the Amazon, and praising programs he has done with the Trump administration to plant trees and create jobs. He claimed that Biden doesn’t understand just how good Bolsonaro has been for US-Brazilian relations, particularly in contrast with his predecessors.
Above: The start of President Bolsonaro’s Twitter thread responding to Biden’s comments.
Biden will alter US-Brazil relations by prioritizing climate change
It’s well known that Biden will change the tone and the substance of US policies towards Latin America generally and Brazil’s environmental situation specifically. Everyone expects it.
However, what many in Brazil and the US are unprepared for is that Biden is likely to restructure the order of the entire agenda, placing environmental issues above economic and political issues in terms of priority, particularly when it comes to US-Brazil relations.
Past administrations including the Obama-Biden administration had positions on environmental issues in Brazil, but the issue fell somewhere in the bottom half of a long list of items, overshadowed by trade, economic investment, agricultural subsidies, counter-narcotics, and Brazil’s role in the international community.
That is no longer going to be the case. Protection of the Amazon won’t be a footnote in a trade discussion. It is quite likely that the trade and investment issues and citizen security issues will be second tier priorities in the climate change negotiations.
Even for people who consider themselves environmentalists, the new climate-led agenda is going to be a shock in terms of what items get attention. We’re not in 1994 any more, when counter-narcotics and free trade led the agenda at the first Summit of the Americas. For businesses and investors operating in Brazil, this shift in US priorities will force them to rethink how they operate.
(The Biden camp would say that the issues aren’t in competition but rather inherently linked. Protecting the environment will lead to jobs, economic growth, and better security. I agree with that, but it’s a debatable position. My point here is that they are going to prioritize the environmental issues whether or not it helps or hurts the economic and security situation).
Bolsonaro is likely to screw this up
Jair Bolsonaro was already firmly in the Trump camp and Biden’s comments at the debate did not help the future bilateral relationship. While Brazil’s professional foreign policy establishment is encouraging neutrality in the US election, the Bolsonaro family has made their preferences clear and will continue to make statements that lean towards the Brazilian president’s preferred candidate. If Donald Trump challenges the legitimacy of the US election results, Bolsonaro is among the most likely of his international allies to jump on board with the current US administration rather than remaining neutral.
Even if the election results are clearly in Biden’s favor, Bolsonaro may be among the presidents who decide to pick a fight with the new US administration. For those who doubt that, look at Brazil’s relationship with Argentina, another of its key trading partners. Bolsonaro insulted President Fernandez on multiple occasions and the two have yet to meet almost a year after the Argentine election.
Biden will have leverage as Brazil’s economy faces challenges, but his administration must be cautious of second order consequences
At the moment, Brazil’s economy remains stronger than its neighbors and the social payments have boosted Bolsonaro’s approval ratings. That has given Brazil’s president a strong political position. At least temporarily, he can embrace a more confrontational approach to US-Brazilian relations.
However, current estimates for Brazil’s economic growth are weak and it may take Brazil several years to regain the levels of GDP it had before the current recession. Bolsonaro’s current political position is based on his ability to buy off voters. If Brazil’s economy performs worse than expected, he loses that support and his political challenges including corruption investigations will return.
The risks of Biden’s threat of economic sanctions to counter Bolosnaro’s environmental positions are major leverage as Brazil’s economy is weakened. A Biden administration is likely to align US policy with European allies and be more open to the ongoing divestment campaign that looks to punish Bolsonaro’s tolerance and encouragement of deforestation.
Like many populists, Bolsonaro may see political opportunities to point fingers at foreign antagonists as a scapegoat for the country’s problems. The Biden administration will need to be cautious that any efforts to pressure Bolsonaro economically don’t harm the lives of Brazilian citizens and give Bolsonaro a political opening.
Thanks for reading
Last week there were articles in Americas Quarterly and Foreign Policy on how US-Brazil relations may change under a Biden administration that are also worth reading on this topic. The Wilson Center will have an event on US-Brazil relations on 6 October.
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