Ten predictions for 2025 that are 80% likely to happen
Perfection is easy and overrated. Let's go 8 for 10 again!
One of my most popular posts in 2024 was my initial 80% predictions post. As hoped, I went 8 for 10 on those predictions (though some fuzzy measurement criteria could leave a few things up for debate). What I didn't expect was getting the eight LatAm predictions correct and two US predictions including the US election wrong. This year, I'm sticking to Latin America.
The goal for this exercise is to find predictions that are 80% likely to happen. I’m not looking for 100% certain things nor do I want things that are just barely over a coinflip.
Here is how I framed this exercise last year:
Statistically, about 8 out of 10 of these should occur. In other words, I'm not trying to be perfect and should get about two of these wrong. If I get 7 out of 10 or 9 out of 10, I'll also count it as a win. But 6 for 10 or worse would indicate I'm off and going 10 for 10 would also be a miscalibration of the predictions (meaning I picked things that were too certain).
Like last year, I have "status quo" predictions in this year's list, things I think are about 80% likely to remain the same and 20% likely to change. On one hand, you could argue that status quo predictions are easy. However, I'm also saying in these cases there are 20% scenarios of change that analysts should prepare for even though they are unlikely.
Nicolas Maduro will control Venezuela - This is obviously the prediction I most hope to get wrong. The opposition should continue trying to unseat Maduro because 20% odds of change are high. However, despite losing the last election and proving he is wildly unpopular, Maduro holds on to the security forces and the international environment is tilting in his favor. His control is not complete and there are cracks in the regime, but it is strong enough (I’d say far stronger than it was in 2019) to say he is 80% likely to remain in power.
LIBRE wins the Honduras presidential election - It's dangerous to predict an incumbent party winning this year, but Xiomara Castro has built a political machine to crush her opponents, win big, and make sure her party remains in power. LIBRE benefits by this being a plurality election where they can divide their opponents.
Milei drops Argentina's currency controls - A big question is whether he does it before or after the midterm elections, but the fact he is setting the country up to get it done this year seems fairly certain. Argentina’s general economic dysfunction plays against his ability to do so.
There will be between 27,000 and 33,000 homicides in Mexico - For the 80% range on this question, I’m assuming that even if Sheinbaum manages to improve security (which is uncertain), she will not do better than a 10% drop in homicides this year. There is a possibility that Sheinbaum will manage some big improvements, but even then, homicides will remain at relatively high levels for several years to come. A "lightswitch moment" in which homicides are dramatically cut due to deals with criminal gangs and different security policies, as happened in El Salvador, seems like a remote scenario. A 10% drop per year for a few years would be an ideal and sustainable number. On the other side, I don’t think things will get so bad that there is more than a 10% increase barring a major cartel war breaking out. In future years, I could probably tighten up this range a bit more, but I think uncertainty is high in 2025 given that it’s Sheinbaum’s first full year and there is also a wildcard from US policy.
Claudia Sheinbaum remains over 50% approval - While it's a status quo prediction, this one is not as obvious as it may seem at first. The strong case for a drop in approval is that she lacks AMLO's teflon magic, there are continued security challenges, and the clash between Trump and her administration will lead to tariffs, border tensions, and potentially economic damage to the country. Additionally, most presidents around the region see their approval ratings drop during their first 18 months in office. Despite all that, I think it's very likely Sheinbaum holds on to the high level of approval in 2025 that AMLO managed through his term.
No countries will change recognition between Beijing and Taipei - Beijing is placing pressure on several countries, including Guatemala and Haiti. It's been a long time since Taiwan has flipped a country in their favor, but growing anger at China plus a Trump administration looking for anti-China positions could create the dynamics for it to occur. The likely scenario is no country changes recognition, but the competition between the two sides remains in 2025.
Arevalo remains in office in Guatemala - I made this prediction last year, and it worked out, though it was far from certain at times. President Arevalo remains challenged by Congress and a corrupt Attorney General. His agenda is largely stalled. The Trump administration is signaling support for AG Porras, who the Biden administration has sanctioned due to her undermining democracy in the country. I think Arevalo's hold on power is not certain, but he should still be able to hold on.
Neither Arce nor Morales win the Bolivian election - It's an anti-incumbent environment and both the president and former president poll poorly. While the clash between the two will dominate the political debate for months to come, they will drag each other down and leave an opening for someone different to run and win.
Lula ends the year with net-negative approval - My prediction last year was Lula's approval would be higher than his disapproval at the end of the year and that just barely happened. This is the year that Lula's magic doesn't hold. Higher inflation, poor relations with the US, health struggles, and an international focus while the country demands domestic solutions will hit Lula. Brazil's president will continue to run against his predecessor because that is the best case for his popularity, but there will be other center-right politicians in the country who are making more effective anti-Lula cases this year. That, combined with economic factors, will see the president's popularity plunge.
A right-of-center candidate will win Chile's presidential election - Boric is unpopular. The anti-incumbent trend and pendulum are strong here. Various figures on the right are on top in the polls. I know one or several left and center-left candidates will run, but this election is very likely to tilt away from Boric.