Ten Predictions for 2024 that are 80% likely to happen
I should get 8 out of 10 of these correct
Happy New Year!
One exercise I run in classes and workshops is "80/20 predictions" where participants need to make a variety of predictions that are either 80% likely or 20% likely to happen. Do ten predictions at either level and you should get about 8 or about 2 of them correct. 80% predictions are great for identifying a strong "base case," something that is likely but could be disrupted by other factors. 20% predictions help identify reasonably plausible but unlikely scenarios that are worth considering.
None of the predictions listed below are certain. Instead, these are the sort of 80% predictions where most should come true but a few should be wrong. Statistically, about 8 out of 10 of these should occur. In other words, I'm not trying to be perfect and should get about two of these wrong. If I get 7 out of 10 or 9 out of 10, I'll also count it as a win. But 6 for 10 or worse would indicate I'm off and going 10 for 10 would also be a miscalibration of the predictions (meaning I picked things that were too certain).
You could easily flip these around and make their opposites the 20% scenarios that analysts should prepare for even though they are unlikely.
Claudia Sheinbaum will win the presidency in Mexico - The polls, the economic fundamentals, and the Morena party machinery (backed by the state) favor Sheinbaum. The opposition did many things correctly in 2023 to set themselves up for a chance of an upset, but it's still an uphill battle.
Homicides in Mexico increase - Election years in Mexico tend to be particularly violent. Criminal groups have good reason to believe they can obtain leverage with violence under the current national government. However, most of the disputes leading to homicides will reflect state and local dynamics and several states including Nuevo Leon exhibit worrying trends. I don't think the spike in homicides will be particularly sharp, but it will be a slight increase over 2023's numbers and will halt the small reductions that AMLO has overseen in recent years even as his government has presided over the greatest number of homicides in over a century.
President Abinader wins reelection in the Dominican Republic - Polls, economic fundamentals favor the president while a divided and discredited opposition make this a very likely win for the incumbent president. Abinader is not invulnerable, but his opponents are making it easy so far.
Argentina's economy will look better (lower inflation, higher growth) by the end of the year - After a rough few months, I think Argentina's economy will hit the rebound side of its regular boom-bust cycle. To be clear, I don't think the country's economy will be systemically better for many years to come, but it should be growing and with lower inflation due to some severe Milei government policies taking effect now.
Lula ends 2024 with a net-positive approval rating - Last year started with doubt about whether Lula could govern like he did before in an era of weaker economic growth. Then there was the insurrection that seemed to start his term off on the wrong foot. Since then, domestically, Lula's first year of new his term has been a masterpiece of politics and a rejection of all the analysts who doubted he could do it. He has a growing economy, is balancing questions about oil and the environment (to the dismay of many leftwing supporters), and is pushing reforms through Congress with the same centrist political skills he used during his previous term. Lula's biggest potential weakness is that he loves foreign policy too much (and really wants a Nobel) to keep his eye on the ball domestically, especially given Brazil's G20 leadership this year.
Venezuela will not attempt to invade Guyana - As I wrote a few weeks ago, there is a 0% chance that Venezuela successfully invades Guyana and occupies the Essequibo territory. So the question then becomes whether Maduro makes that mistake anyway and faces the inevitable military defeat. Maduro has proven too much of a political survivor over the past ten years to be likely to make that sort of own goal error. I think the odds of a Malvinas-like attempt and failure are well under 20% in spite of the heated rhetoric and military exercises. For this prediction, I’m not counting a tiny border clash, if one occurs, as full-scale invasion.
No confirmed peace deal with the ELN in Colombia - Negotiations are ongoing. Ceasefires will be broken and then restart again. But the final peace deal agreed to by both the government and criminal/rebel/terrorist group will be elusive. The leadership of the ELN is divided, half the personnel are in Venezuela, and there are too many profits to be made continuing the fight. The Petro government lacks focus, something that is obvious from the President's Twitter feed.
Bernardo Arevalo remains president of Guatemala - It's still not even 100% certain that Arevalo will be inaugurated in the next two weeks and the fact I place the odds of him making it through the year at only around 80-85% is a sign of the challenges the new president faces. Still, the most likely scenario is that he is inaugurated and makes it through the year. It will be a year of high level institutional clashes as Arevalo's opponents use their control of other branches of government to hamper his agenda and the president responds with forceful anti-corruption investigations with the assistance of international allies.
Migrant apprehensions in the US remain above 125,000 per month in Q4 2024 - December 2023 saw over 225,000 migrants apprehended by CBP, the highest number in 25 years of record keeping. While 125k may seem like a low number by that standard, it's incredibly high by historic standards. It suggests ongoing crises throughout the hemisphere pushing people to flee to the US. It would take a relatively big shift in migration trends to move the number back down to the averages of the 2010s.
The Democrats will win the presidency in the United States - I'm only about 70% on this prediction right now, so below the 80% mark I’m using for most of this post. Still, I'm including on this list because I think it's important to highlight that this is not a coinflip election nor do the Republicans have an advantage due to Biden's weak poll numbers or the ongoing migration debates. The Democrats have a clear national advantage in the presidential race this year given that the Republicans seem poised to nominate a weak candidate.
Feel free to email me with your thoughts on these predictions and any that you may have.