I’m holding an online Q&A today to talk about coronavirus and the impacts on Latin American politics and economics. While I’ll do my best to answer questions here in short form, I’m also doing this because knowing more about your questions will help shape the newsletter in the weeks to come.
I’m neither a doctor nor a lawyer, so nothing in my answers should be considered medical or legal advice. Like many readers, I’m also at home with two kids under 10 while doing this Q&A, so my answering of questions will be spread out over today and perhaps the rest of the week as I have time. I have no idea how many questions I’ll receive, but if this is popular, I may try it again in future weeks.
I have a lot of knowledgeable readers out there too who should feel free to contribute their expertise, thoughts, analysis and predictions.
Among the questions on my mind that I’m thinking about writing on in the coming two weeks:
What is the current base scenario for various Latin American countries?
How does this virus hit countries that are already in crisis (such as Venezuela, Haiti) and does that become a regional issue?
How does the region handle the economic slowdown?
What does Latin America look like in March 2021 and what is different due to coronavirus?
As governments proceed to devise and implement up their anti-Coronavirus policies, what are the issues most dividing LA nations domestically and across the region, and where is there a general consensus? Also, to what extent has there been collaboration or at least, good communication between countries of the region, and with the US? Are LA countries looking to the for help?
My response:
In the past few days, the only thing dividing the region has been how quickly to implement suppression policies such as cancelling schools, shutting down public gatherings, and implementing curfews. In general, politicians have been trying to one-up each other, showing that they are willing to act swiftly and their opponents are moving too slowly. That’s a good place to be at the moment politically. What we don’t know is how domestic populations will react.
Nearly every country in Latin America is used to the occasional disruption caused by natural disaster or civil unrest. Having businesses or schools closed for a few days is disruptive but not overly unusual. As this stretches beyond one week and hits people’s income, I think the population will begin to question the politicians who called for more restrictive measures. Images out of Italy (or the US) may keep people in favor of restrictions for a few weeks, but this is going to wear on populations. I worry that bold politicians may be punished in some places.
The bad news for politicians is that there is no good answer politically. Move too lightly and people will die as health systems collapse. Move too harshly and people will question if it was too damaging to the economy. An effective response looks like an unnecessary response.
In terms of communication and collaboration among the countries in the region, that is one thing that I think is lacking so far. I’d like to see a more unified response. “Close the borders” has become a default reaction. It may make sense for a short time to suppress how long it takes for the virus to take hold. Once the virus begins spreading inside of each country, they should reopen most borders and move to a more coordinated mitigation response. At that point, they don’t need to worry about new cases entering as much as they need to work together to build social distancing practices and keep their healthcare systems operating.
Hi Boz! Thanks for this. My questions are Mexico focused. I read that COVID 19 is having an effect on Unión de Tepito credibility /finances - as a key part of their income comes from being involved in the supply chain of counterfeit Chinese products sold in Mexico City's historical center. What does it mean for the criminal landscape of the city? Similarly, CJNG/Sinaloa's fentanyl production has the potential to be impacted. Is this happening? what can it trigger? Thanks again and looking forward to your thoughts
Working in the humanitarian sector with Venezuelan migrants and refugees in Colombia and with work in Venezuela as well, you can see a near total shutdown of humanitarian operations due to movement and meeting restrictions. Processes for food distribution are now at risk and key humanitarian personnel cannot move to areas where they are needed to implement aid. At the same time, the draconian measures implemented in both Colombia and Venezuela are hitting much harder than they might say in Europe. I can't say for certain what the end reaction will be but while people are accepting the measures currently, people with few savings and with needs will be unable to sit and wait during a lockdown are almost certainly going to be unable to cope with several weeks or even worse, months, of shutdown and income loss. I'd guess that there will be marches and protests soon as people working in the service sector with low income simply run out of food and see no options. There will certainly not be some UBI or anything similar to come to their rescue.
Hi Boz, I'm working on some "second order" security impacts of the virus in the region. Do you have thoughts on some of the public safety/criminal fallout from this? Thinking across the spectrum from criminal networks hoarding and selling supplies on the black market, looting, fuel theft in Mexico, etc. as governments are more focused on containment measures right now. Also curious after the prison riot in Sao Paulo if this could be an increasing trend as inmates become concerned about their risks while incarcerated.
Boz, another question when you have a moment - given what we know about the high number of "unofficial" border crossings in so many countries in LATAM (thinking CENTAM, but this applies to Colombia, etc.) how effective will the closures of official borders actually be with regard to containment?
Thanks for doing this. I’m curious how you think the spread of COVID-19 will play out in countries with crises of legitimacy right now (Venezuela, Bolivia, etc.) How do you anticipate these crises of legitimacy playing out as citizens need to increasingly look to their governments for support? Will groups, both governments and opposition movements, politicize this crisis to fit their own needs? Gracias.
Argentina is in the middle of debt restructuring negotiations and originally President Fernandez gave a deadline for the end of March — No one believed that was a hard deadline in the first place, but what is the outlook for the debt restructuring now given the imminent global recession and public health crisis? How much worse can things get before they get better?
I received a question by email from Peter:
As governments proceed to devise and implement up their anti-Coronavirus policies, what are the issues most dividing LA nations domestically and across the region, and where is there a general consensus? Also, to what extent has there been collaboration or at least, good communication between countries of the region, and with the US? Are LA countries looking to the for help?
My response:
In the past few days, the only thing dividing the region has been how quickly to implement suppression policies such as cancelling schools, shutting down public gatherings, and implementing curfews. In general, politicians have been trying to one-up each other, showing that they are willing to act swiftly and their opponents are moving too slowly. That’s a good place to be at the moment politically. What we don’t know is how domestic populations will react.
Nearly every country in Latin America is used to the occasional disruption caused by natural disaster or civil unrest. Having businesses or schools closed for a few days is disruptive but not overly unusual. As this stretches beyond one week and hits people’s income, I think the population will begin to question the politicians who called for more restrictive measures. Images out of Italy (or the US) may keep people in favor of restrictions for a few weeks, but this is going to wear on populations. I worry that bold politicians may be punished in some places.
The bad news for politicians is that there is no good answer politically. Move too lightly and people will die as health systems collapse. Move too harshly and people will question if it was too damaging to the economy. An effective response looks like an unnecessary response.
In terms of communication and collaboration among the countries in the region, that is one thing that I think is lacking so far. I’d like to see a more unified response. “Close the borders” has become a default reaction. It may make sense for a short time to suppress how long it takes for the virus to take hold. Once the virus begins spreading inside of each country, they should reopen most borders and move to a more coordinated mitigation response. At that point, they don’t need to worry about new cases entering as much as they need to work together to build social distancing practices and keep their healthcare systems operating.
Have you seen this from ICNL? I think the examination of the exercise of emergency powers and how that affects governance in specific countries would be useful. https://www.icnl.org/post/analysis/coronavirus-and-civic-space
Hi Boz! Thanks for this. My questions are Mexico focused. I read that COVID 19 is having an effect on Unión de Tepito credibility /finances - as a key part of their income comes from being involved in the supply chain of counterfeit Chinese products sold in Mexico City's historical center. What does it mean for the criminal landscape of the city? Similarly, CJNG/Sinaloa's fentanyl production has the potential to be impacted. Is this happening? what can it trigger? Thanks again and looking forward to your thoughts
Working in the humanitarian sector with Venezuelan migrants and refugees in Colombia and with work in Venezuela as well, you can see a near total shutdown of humanitarian operations due to movement and meeting restrictions. Processes for food distribution are now at risk and key humanitarian personnel cannot move to areas where they are needed to implement aid. At the same time, the draconian measures implemented in both Colombia and Venezuela are hitting much harder than they might say in Europe. I can't say for certain what the end reaction will be but while people are accepting the measures currently, people with few savings and with needs will be unable to sit and wait during a lockdown are almost certainly going to be unable to cope with several weeks or even worse, months, of shutdown and income loss. I'd guess that there will be marches and protests soon as people working in the service sector with low income simply run out of food and see no options. There will certainly not be some UBI or anything similar to come to their rescue.
Hi Boz, I'm working on some "second order" security impacts of the virus in the region. Do you have thoughts on some of the public safety/criminal fallout from this? Thinking across the spectrum from criminal networks hoarding and selling supplies on the black market, looting, fuel theft in Mexico, etc. as governments are more focused on containment measures right now. Also curious after the prison riot in Sao Paulo if this could be an increasing trend as inmates become concerned about their risks while incarcerated.
Hi! I have heard that Cuba has a medicine that works well against Corona, and that they will be sending it to China. Any truth to this?
Boz, another question when you have a moment - given what we know about the high number of "unofficial" border crossings in so many countries in LATAM (thinking CENTAM, but this applies to Colombia, etc.) how effective will the closures of official borders actually be with regard to containment?
Hey Boz —
Thanks for doing this. I’m curious how you think the spread of COVID-19 will play out in countries with crises of legitimacy right now (Venezuela, Bolivia, etc.) How do you anticipate these crises of legitimacy playing out as citizens need to increasingly look to their governments for support? Will groups, both governments and opposition movements, politicize this crisis to fit their own needs? Gracias.
Argentina is in the middle of debt restructuring negotiations and originally President Fernandez gave a deadline for the end of March — No one believed that was a hard deadline in the first place, but what is the outlook for the debt restructuring now given the imminent global recession and public health crisis? How much worse can things get before they get better?
Sounds interesting. I liked your comparison. More details comparing best and worst practices would be fine. I'm into it myself. Cheers.