I cover recent polls every Wednesday. If you want to be added to the newsletter distribution list, please enter your email at https://boz.substack.com/ or email me at boz@substack.com and I will add you.
Two items today:
Mexico - Population supports AMLO’s approach to Trump
Ecuador - Another poll in the mix
Mexico - Population supports AMLO’s approach to Trump
An El Financiero poll suggested 57% of Mexicans agree with President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s decision to avoid recognizing the victory of President-elect Joe Biden. Only 25% disagree.
This poll is not a sign that Mexican citizens support Trump. 61% believe it is positive that Biden won while only 7% believe it is bad. Biden has 45% approval and 16% disapproval. Trump has 11% approval and 74% disapproval.
In short: Mexican citizens mostly approve of AMLO’s alliance with Trump even as they largely dislike Trump. There is a bit of cognitive dissonance there. It likely reflects a level of support for AMLO that is separate from the details of his foreign policy.
The poll became much more relevant yesterday evening when the US and Mexico jointly announced that the US would be withdrawing charges against General Cienfuegos. The DOJ filing to the court says “sensitive and important foreign policy considerations” outweigh the interest of prosecuting Cienfuegos.
The move appears to be a quid pro quo for AMLO’s remaining on the sidelines after the election. If Cienfuegos returns to Mexico and is not charged or given a show trial in which he easily escapes jail time, it is possible the perception of Lopez Obrador’s decision to cozy up to Trump even after the election may take a different turn. Then again, other scandals involving AMLO’s brother, Pemex and the CFE are far more likely to impact the average citizen than this Cienfuegos issue and none of those have yet harmed AMLO’s popularity.
Finally, as an interesting note, a majority of Mexican citizens believe that it is very or somewhat probable that Trump remains the US president in spite of losing the election. That may also play a role in why Mexicans believe AMLO is smart to remain close to Trump and not recognize Biden’s victory.
Ecuador - Another poll in the mix
An election poll in late October by Omar Maluk has Ecuador’s presidential race as:
Arauz 29
Lasso 22
Perez 8
Others 13
Blank/undecided/null: 28%
Maluk used his poll to criticize Cedatos and their methodology. A recent Cedatos poll suggested that most Ecuadorans believed Lasso would win, but did not provide voter preferences. Maluk says his poll was done with in-person interviews.
Ecuador has few quality polls and way too much debate and controversy over each individual poll that is published (or passed around via rumormill and WhatsApp). I’m collecting data right now and sharing polls as I see them, but I do not place too much faith in any poll I’ve seen so far. The only constant is that there are a lot of voters who dislike all of the choices, creating space for a major shakeup in the race at some point before election day.
Thanks for reading
Have a great afternoon.