Nicaragua - Ortega represses political opponents and civil society
This month’s renewed crackdown in Nicaragua shows that the country’s de facto President Daniel Ortega is simultaneously afraid and emboldened.
In recent weeks, Nicaraguan opposition parties were unfairly banned. Authorities detained and harassed opposition candidates and political leaders. Media outlets were attacked and shut down, with some journalists now facing fake money laundering charges.
International Crisis Group and El Faro both had good recent coverage of the events there. Confidencial remains one of the most important domestic media outlets, which is why Ortega’s regime keeps attacking them.
This month’s renewed crackdown in Nicaragua shows that the country’s de facto President Daniel Ortega is simultaneously afraid and emboldened.
Ortega is afraid that the election results in November of this year will demonstrate the lack of public support for his regime and create cracks in his hold on power. Elections are major moments of tension and potential instability for authoritarian regimes. Analysts (and sometimes political oppositions) too often dismiss this point with a “they can just steal the election.” They can, but it’s not as simple as it sounds. If it was, Ortega wouldn’t bother banning or detaining his potential opponents right now.
Ortega definitely prefers that his opponents boycott this election, something that would make it much easier to steal. He’d also like them to remain divided with no clear and consolidated frontrunner, something that could allow him to squeak to victory in a single round plurality vote.
Instead of debating potential boycotts or irrevocably dividing, Ortega’s opponents bickered and competed in recent months to see who would run against the current government. It was a contentious debate, at times threatening opposition unity. But in a country where democracy has declined and the opportunities for legitimate political debate have been limited, the large popular interest in the question of who would face Ortega later this year represents a threat to the illusion that the governing family has solid support.
In spite of Ortega’s fear, it’s also obvious that Ortega is emboldened in the belief that he can act right now to crack down with impunity on his opponents, the media and civil society. The ruling Sandinista party has pushed back against calls for electoral reforms by passing increasingly restrictive laws that practically ensure the election will not be held on a level playing field. The de facto president and his family feel certain that his domestic opponents cannot credibly fight back after the repression of 2018 protests and that the international community can’t or won’t do significantly more to punish him and his family than they’ve already done. More sanctions aren’t welcome by Ortega, but each added marginal sanction moving forward is unlikely to be particularly painful or costly compared to those that have already been implemented.
Everyone should focus on the fact Ortega feels there is less risk in a repressive crackdown in May 2021 than in having to compete and potentially steal an election in November 2021. It’s a clear signal from Ortega as to where he believes his weakest moment may be: He’s afraid of the election.
From the safety of my keyboard a thousand miles away from my previous home in Managua (where I lived from 2010 to 2013), it’s easy to write that the opposition’s best strategy is to decide on a unity candidate and compete in spite of the unfair conditions. If Ortega bans their preferred candidate, go to option two. Make him work to steal this election and highlight every undemocratic action along the way.
That’s harder to do than write in the climate of fear that Ortega has created. The ghosts of 2018’s brutal killings of opposition activists hangs over the country’s political situation. Ortega believes if he represses hard enough now, he can create enough hesitation among political activists and voters to make the election rigging a more routine affair come November. He very well might be correct about that.
Sanctions and other economic punishments and political criticisms by the international community won’t change Ortega’s behavior in the short term, but they will be done anyway. The international community needs to send a message that the Nicaraguan government’s actions are unacceptable.
It’s a tough balance, but in supporting the opposition to Ortega, the international community must also avoid unilaterally ceding ground to the ruling party. Nicaragua’s de facto president wants his domestic political opponents and the international community to accept that the stolen reelection is inevitable and not worth contesting. Ortega’s actions this month demonstrate that he does feel the pressure and fear that he might lose control of the situation later this year. Press him on it.
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