Mexico’s final weeks of 2020 signal a difficult start to 2021
The former governor of Jalisco was assassinated. Mexico City's hospitals have no room to spare.
In recent days, three stories have competed for attention in Mexico and it’s hard to ignore the symbolism of what it means for the coming year.
The former governor of Jalisco was assassinated in a restaurant in Puerto Vallarta.
AMLO handed a pile of new infrastructure contracts to the military including the Tren Maya and the airport in Tulum.
Mexico City’s government finally acknowledged the severity of the Covid surge and announced a three week lockdown.
AMLO is entering 2021 with the security situation declining as the CJNG strengthens, a military that has greater political and economic influence (even if they aren’t helping the security situation), and a surging pandemic to which his government has failed to respond.
Sandoval’s assassination may be another signal of bold CJNG attacks to come
A gunman killed former Jalisco Governor Aristoteles Sandoval at a restaurant in Puerto Vallarta last week. It’s not clear who killed the former governor (though the CJNG is the top suspect), why he was killed, what he was doing at the restaurant, why his bodyguards failed to protect him, why the police failed to secure the crime scene, and why the federal government is allowing the investigation of one of the highest level political murders in recent years to remain a state-level issue. On top of being the former governor, Sandoval was a high ranking member of the PRI, AMLO’s political opposition, and was seen as important to the party’s future.
Politicians and their aides have been targeted by criminal groups regularly, but the killings and threats tend to remain relatively low level. As with the CJNG ambush of Mexico City’s security chief earlier this year, if this attack was done by the Jalisco-based group, it suggests a level of boldness and a willingness to target government officials as a form of leverage.
The military continue to gain political and economic influence
Just weeks ago, the Mexican military pressured AMLO to use his leverage with Donald Trump to get former Defense Minister Cienfuegos returned from the US. AMLO’s party has since passed new restrictions on future US cooperation, something that will prevent future DEA investigations into corrupt officials. Instead of pushing back against the growing military influence, AMLO is embracing it. He announced the military will play a critical role in infrastructure projects in the country’s southeast including the Tren Maya and the airport in Tulum.
It’s a good moment to note that Mexico will finish 2020 with near record levels of homicides, similar to the 2019 total. It’s not as if the military is successfully accomplishing the task of providing security and is being rewarded for it. AMLO, who once promised to limit the military’s involvement in the country, has expanded their security and economic roles. That trend will continue into 2021 and
The pandemic is collapsing Mexico City’s healthcare system
Many hospitals are near 100% occupancy and there are reports of locations running out of oxygen. The mayor of Mexico City held off declaring a worsening situation (and the associated lockdown measures) for several weeks, presumably due to concerns about how AMLO would react. The head in the sand approach is creating a health crisis in the country’s largest metropolitan area and there are several municipalities doing significantly worse than the capital.
As with much of Latin America, the Christmas season is likely to worsen the spread of the virus. Unlike much of the region, there is almost zero spare capacity in Mexico’s urban areas to handle the additional cases come January.
One of the biggest concerns I have for Mexico in 2021 is that AMLO will not take the vaccination effort seriously because he has not taken anything else about the pandemic seriously. While every government in the hemisphere will face challenges with obtaining, transporting, storing and distributing vaccines, Mexico has a greater likelihood than many other countries of facing delays and mistakes given how AMLO has handled the situation up to this point.
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