A Pandemic Christmas Season in Latin America
A coronavirus surge in early 2021 is likely as Latin America lets down its guard for Christmas
It’s that special time of year when clients request urgent research projects and I have to repeat over and over again that things will take more time because much of Latin America shuts down for the holidays.
“Shuts down” is a relative term and varies by sector and country. For most countries, what it means is that getting a politician or business executive to sit down for an interview becomes a whole lot harder through early January. Many of them go on vacation.
However, “shuts down” does not mean that everyone locks themselves inside. The Christmas season is full of social events and shopping. While the political and business elite may get time off, the middle and lower classes continue to work.
That is an important clarification during the pandemic this year. The business environment may slow down during the holidays, but all signs point to a greater spread of the virus during the coming weeks.
A coronavirus surge in early 2021 is likely as Latin America lets down its guard for Christmas
Coronavirus is currently spiking in the two largest countries in the region, Brazil and Mexico. Both cases and deaths are increasing (Mexico’s undercount is worse than Brazil’s). In many states of both countries, hospitals are near their peak levels, worse than at any previous point in the pandemic. Some hospitals are full and turning away patients.
The recent surge in Brazil and Mexico as well as in Europe and the United States suggests that other countries in Latin America should not see themselves as out of danger yet, even if the numbers are currently steady or declining.
Unfortunately, media reports and conversations with people living throughout the region confirm that Latin America is largely letting its guard down. People are gathering in larger numbers and holding social events with limited distancing and poor mask use. Over the Christmas holiday season, that could lead to a spike in super-spreader events that would see case increases in January and February of next year.
The lockdown debate will return
With hospitals once again nearing full capacity in the coming months, one concern is that some Latin American leaders may begin to consider lockdowns. Even those that have totally rejected a return to lockdowns are going to face pressure as their health systems are under strain.
That consideration occurs in a much more difficult political and economic environment than the lockdowns of last March and April. Business leaders are strongly opposed and will leverage their influence against politicians who attempt to resume lockdowns. A greater number of citizens lack food and protests are more likely than widespread compliance. I expect that debate to be a source of tension during the first quarter of next year in many countries.
Thanks for reading
Wear a mask and stay safe.
Thanks to all the paying subscribers who have signed up for today’s (14 December) online event at 1PM EST. I’m looking forward to it.