Thanks for this update, Boz and Lucy. I had been meaning to dig into this data. I'm curious if either of you have any opinions on where this is headed. Without an effective security strategy coming from the state, is 2022 going to continue the trend of historically high homicide rates we've seen the last several years? What could bring the rate down in this context?
I think the rates of violence remain level nationally, though we'll see big swings state by state as the various fights ebb and flow. If I had to guess, the homicide rate in 2023 will be within 10% of the 2021 rate. There won't be either a big spike or a big decline nationally.
In terms of what could bring the rate down, there is a semblance of a plan that the AMLO government has considered in which they prioritize certain hot spots and solve them with local solutions one by one. It's a good idea in theory and one that worked quite well in the final two years of Calderon's term, but AMLO really hasn't executed on it in a strong way. Deploying troops without a strategy doesn't magically fix things (something that also failed the first four years of Calderon's term). They need more resources and focus including involving local law enforcement and local communities in a sustainable way.
Thanks for this update, Boz and Lucy. I had been meaning to dig into this data. I'm curious if either of you have any opinions on where this is headed. Without an effective security strategy coming from the state, is 2022 going to continue the trend of historically high homicide rates we've seen the last several years? What could bring the rate down in this context?
I think the rates of violence remain level nationally, though we'll see big swings state by state as the various fights ebb and flow. If I had to guess, the homicide rate in 2023 will be within 10% of the 2021 rate. There won't be either a big spike or a big decline nationally.
In terms of what could bring the rate down, there is a semblance of a plan that the AMLO government has considered in which they prioritize certain hot spots and solve them with local solutions one by one. It's a good idea in theory and one that worked quite well in the final two years of Calderon's term, but AMLO really hasn't executed on it in a strong way. Deploying troops without a strategy doesn't magically fix things (something that also failed the first four years of Calderon's term). They need more resources and focus including involving local law enforcement and local communities in a sustainable way.
Thank you!