Latin America should prepare for even more coronavirus spread

New variants mean some countries could see yet another doubling of new cases.

Source: Our World in Data. If you click that link, you can play with the data, change the countries and the date ranges and make your own graphics. You know you want to.

Coronavirus cases are rising. Except Peru and Ecuador, every country in that chart above has seen an increase since 1 December. South America’s aggregate number of new cases is at its highest level since the start of the pandemic. Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia and Paraguay are all at their highest levels. Argentina is on track to hit its worst levels in the coming two weeks. Chile is rising at a dangerous rate as well.

These are just the cases that are recorded. Testing is limited and nearly every country is above 10% in terms of the number of tests coming back positive. Several countries including Argentina, Bolivia and Colombia are above 30% positive rates. At those levels, that means many cases are being missed. This article about excess deaths in Mexico City shows just how bad things the reality is there compared to the reported numbers.

The fact that cases are rising after the Christmas holidays is not surprising. The new threat that has emerged is the spread of variants that are more contagious. Latin American countries are beginning to report incidents of the “UK variant.” Other variants are emerging including one identified in Japan that appeared in some travelers from Brazil. With limited monitoring capabilities, it’s hard to know exactly which new variants are where. For the purposes of this newsletter, it’s less important to track the spread of specific gene sequences than it is to realize that these new variants will make their way to Latin America and will increase the speed at which the virus is spreading, making containment even more difficult.

If you want to understand why this matters, read this article in the Atlantic or this thread on Twitter that focuses on research in Denmark predicting the UK variant will become the predominant version of the virus in that country within the coming weeks. 

The problem with the chart at the top of this newsletter is that the y-axis stops near the recent peak for Latin America. It doesn’t give a good sense for how bad it can get. So, look at the chart below.

Source: Our World in Data

There is no reason to believe that Brazil will handle this new rise in cases better than the US, UK or Ireland. Everyone should be prepared for the number of new cases to at least double in some Latin American countries in the coming months as new variants spread and governments and societies fail to stop large indoor spread events including at restaurants. If Latin America doesn’t hit the levels of the US or UK in the coming months in the graphs, that is likely due to testing limitations, not a lack of spread of the virus.

Adding to the bad news, no country in South America has the health care systems or the hospital capacity to manage a spike of 2x or 3x of current levels. Bogota, Mexico City, Quito and Rio are all above 85% ICU occupancy right now. 

This is going to leave Latin American countries in a tough bind. None of the countries in South America can afford to lock down for multiple weeks and none of them can afford to see a doubling of cases that collapses their healthcare systems. 

I wish I had better news, but the next few months look grim. Large-scale vaccine campaigns are still months away. The exponential growth of Covid is going to arrive before significant numbers of vaccines.

Thanks for reading.

Sorry for the pessimism today, but I think people need to see the charts and realize things will get worse before they get better. Feel free to forward this newsletter today to anyone you think needs to see the charts above, but please also encourage those to whom you forward to subscribe.