In today’s edition: The Coronavirus crisis is also a humanitarian crisis
This week, paying subscribers received:
Monday: A report on Mexico security focused mostly on Guanajuato
Tuesday: A report on political risk in Brazil looking at the growing divestment movement
Wednesday: A polling and politics roundup that covered several countries including Chile, Colombia and Peru
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The Coronavirus crisis is also a humanitarian crisis
In its July update, the World Food Program estimates 16 million people in Latin America and the Caribbean could experience hunger this year, up from approximately 4 million last year and from the 14 million they estimated in their late May press release. WFP analysts are particularly concerned about Haiti, the Dry Corridor of Central America, and Venezuelan migrant populations in Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. The WFP is warning of a major crisis in the region.
Anecdotally, there are many stories of hunger across the hemisphere. I’ve heard or read reports from nearly every capital city suggesting there are populations in poor neighborhoods who are not eating three meals per day. In some cities including Bogota and San Salvador citizens are signaling their distress to their neighbors by hanging flags or shirts of various colors out the window.
Data are inconsistently measured across countries, but most data and surveys show hunger rising. A survey in Mexico says one in every three citizens will experience some form of food insecurity this year. An analysis by IPC of 13 departments in Honduras found 32% of the population in crisis.
There are a number of contributing factors that reinforce each other. They include:
Millions have lost their jobs in the formal economy
Informal economy workers have been unable to work due to lockdown rules
Remittances are down across most of the hemisphere. For example, they are down 40% in El Salvador, leading to significant food insecurity there.
Food markets have become points for the virus to spread, leading some to avoid those locations to protect their own health
People are afraid because health systems cannot keep up. A recent report from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) says that the three countries in the Northern Triangle were among the 9 lowest hospital beds per capita pre-pandemic. News out of El Salvador this week suggests the hospital system has collapsed.
Other than Venezuela, this crisis is not about the availability of food. There is enough food in all these countries to feed the populations who are at risk. Unfortunately, citizens can’t afford the food and aid programs are not large enough or organized enough to assist all of those who are missing meals. Governments have had problems distributing aid and are concerned about the long term debt they are adding.
It’s worse in Venezuela
Venezuela experienced years of hunger, extreme poverty and medical failures prior to the coronavirus pandemic. Its regime mismanaged the economy, causing mass shortages of food and fuel. They also abuse their power by using food as a political weapon to reward supporters and punish opponents.
Source: ENCOVI 2019
These pre-pandemic conditions have meant the population has suffered during the pandemic at far greater levels than most countries in the world. The ENCOVI poll published this week provides evidence Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis has worsened in the opening months of the pandemic.
Overall, the poll shows higher levels of food insecurity at homes compared to the ENCOVI 2018 analysis: 79% of homes report lack of a healthy diet (which reaches 83% during the pandemic, compared to the 69% reported during 2018); 49% of adults report not always eating when hungry (compared to 43% in 2018) and 34% of adults report eating only once a day or spending whole days without eating (compared to the 30% in 2018). Currently, 87% of adults are worried food will run out at homes (compared to 84% in 2018) and 57% report effectively running out of food (compared to 54% in 2018). During the pandemic, only 7% of homes haven’t worried about food supply.
The pandemic still has not peaked in Venezuela, meaning the worst is yet to come.
Corruption Corner
Panama - Former President Martinelli’s two sons were indicted by the United States and arrested in Guatemala on charges of bribery and money laundering. Separately, the Panamanian government indicted two former presidents - Martinelli and Juan Carlos Varela - on corruption charges related to Odebrecht scandal.
Mexico - President Lopez Obrador attacked Mexicans Against Corruption and Impunity, the organization that originally reported on the overpriced ventilators purchased by the son of the head of the Federal Electricity Commission.
Mexico - Police in Miami arrested Cesar Duarte, the former governor of Chihuahua, who is wanted on corruption charges in Mexico. Duarte, like many PRI governors of his era, is accused of stealing millions of dollars by diverting state government contracts to shell companies and political allies. The arrest came on the same day that President Lopez Obrador visited the US. It’s a potential boost for AMLO, who needs to show progress on his anti-corruption agenda. However, the detention of someone from a rival political party by the US during a high-level bilateral visit could be seen as politicizing the anti-corruption agenda as well.
Venezuela - The US government seized 81 vehicles that appear to have been purchased with money stolen by corrupt Venezuelan officials. The vehicles were set to be exported by allies of Raul Gorrin to Venezuela to be used by government and military officials and their supporters.
Reading List
Wilson Center - Convocation: A Vision for a Stronger U.S.-Mexico Partnership
International Crisis Group - Miracle or Mirage? Gangs and Plunging Violence in El Salvador
Financial Times - Coronavirus corruption cases spread across Latin America
Guardian - Bolsonaro reportedly uses homophobic slur to mock masks
Associated Press - Facebook removes false accounts linked to Brazil’s Bolsonaro
Brookings - Brazil’s economic crossroads: Which path will it choose?
Wall Street Journal - Brutal Gang Rises as Mexico’s Top Security Threat
New York Times - Caso Alex Saab: el periodismo hizo su trabajo; es hora de la justicia
Wall Street Journal - Iranian Military-Owned Conglomerate Sets Up Shop in Venezuela
Associated Press - Venezuela high court orders takeover of Guaidó’s party
Miami Herald - Department of Energy labels Cuba and Venezuela ‘foreign adversaries’
Clarin - Encontraron muerto a Fabián Gutiérrez, exsecretario de Cristina Kirchner
InSight Crime - Attack on Top Court Threatens Constitutional Crisis in Guatemala
Economist - The Dominican Republic changes its ruling party
Associated Press - During pandemic, Nicaraguan doctors face political pressure
Washington Post - Why Guyana’s political stalemate matters
Washington Post - Drug-trafficking cartels fly cocaine narco jets through Guatemala’s Laguna del Tigre park
Economist - Ecuador is in intensive care, and a straitjacket
World Economic Forum - COVID-19: What are the biggest risks to society in the next 18 months?
Latin Finance - Fintech’s Crisis Moment
Thanks for reading
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