In this edition:
Region - Coronavirus, criminal gangs and security forces
Venezuela - Guaido vs Maduro continues amid coronavirus
Earlier this week, I published an article on trust and quarantines. Additionally, paying subscribers this week received early access to an article on coronavirus in Ecuador. I have dropped the paywall on the article and it is available at this link.
This free weekly newsletter is published every Thursday. Please encourage your friends and colleagues to enter their email at https://boz.substack.com to receive it. In recent weeks, I’ve also sent a number of free coronavirus-related articles. Thanks to the paying subscribers who support this newsletter and also receive additional exclusive analysis as well as early access to some articles.
Current reported cases in select Latin American countries
Log scale. Source: Our World in Data
Region - Coronavirus, criminal gangs and security forces
I’ve received a number of questions in the past few weeks about how criminal groups in the region may adapt to coronavirus.
InSight Crime beat me to the punch in publishing about how criminal gangs are acting in the opening weeks of quarantine and economic downturn around the hemisphere. That article provides excellent context about what is going on in the region.
Perhaps the most interesting actions have related to criminal groups enforcing quarantines in their neighborhoods (examples from Brazil and El Salvador). In doing so, the groups demonstrate that they exercise political control over those neighborhoods and the populations within. This also gives them leverage for profiting off illicit services that deliver food, water and other supplies to the neighborhood, something that allows them to make up for lost trafficking and extortion revenue.
Large transnational criminal groups are going to act differently and have greater economic flexibility than smaller local street gangs (the same way most large multinational corporations have more flexibility than a small local restaurant or hardware store). The Sinaloa Cartel, the CJNG, the ELN, the CV and the PCC are all going to adapt, survive and find ways to profit.
Small gangs are going to hurt for cash because local businesses and individuals who are their targets have fewer resources and are simply not present. Increases in cargo theft and looting could follow as criminal groups can no longer get easy money from local businesses and everyone needs access to supplies.
The loss of jobs and educational opportunities and the shift in prisons due to coronavirus will lead to increased recruitment opportunities.
Hypothetically, all of the factors above could lead to consolidation in which larger criminal organizations with greater resources and reach are able to buy out or bury the smaller criminal gangs as they lose access to easy money.
However, any consolidation would go against the trend of criminal splintering over the past decade. Consolidation that occurs during coronavirus would be ripe for disruption and splintering rather quickly once economic conditions improve again.
Separate from everything I wrote above, the initial crime statistics for March around much of the region suggest a large drop in violent crimes including homicides. Some large criminal organizations may consolidate and some small gangs will grow desperate, but the demographics of having fewer people on the streets mean less violence in general.
Militaries increase their public role again
One thread of analysis late last year revolved around the role of militaries in Latin American politics. Presidents facing crises surrounded themselves with military commanders and made sure the military expressed support for the continuation of their governments. In the one case the military turned against a president, Evo Morales was pushed out of power due to his attempt to steal the Bolivian election.
As 2019 was the year presidents posted images of themselves to Twitter with their military commanders as a sign of political control, 2020 is the year of military presence on the street as part of a health crisis. Across the region, presidents have turned to their militaries to assist in battling coronavirus. Greg Weeks had a good thread on his blog last week regarding the use of militaries by various governments in the hemisphere to enforce quarantines and assist with other aspects of this crisis.
This is a public health emergency and governments should be using the resources they have including their militaries to help prevent as many deaths and illnesses as possible. However, using the military comes with both short term and long term risks.
Short term, most military forces are not trained to do a quarantine mission and it’s hard to teach them how to do subtle public interactions on the fly. Given a mission to lock down a neighborhood, some military forces will inevitably overreact (some police will overreact too; this is not the easiest balance). Reports of militaries roughing up populations are already occurring.
Due to how they live and work, militaries are also vulnerable to having a rapid spread of coronavirus through their ranks. Sending militaries to the streets to work on coronavirus issues could lead to a health crisis within the militaries themselves.
Military units that are already corrupt are going to continue being corrupt. This is most prominent in Venezuela, where various military and police forces are extorting people who are out and cargo transports that are moving needed supplies. Anywhere that militaries and organized crime have an overlap, the military forces will also be part of the disruption in the criminal system outlined above.
Long term, some presidents that use their militaries in extraordinary ways during this crisis may have a hard time giving up those emergency powers as the crisis recedes. The combined crises of last year and this year are drawing military commanders into civilian politics in a way that was less true over the past decade. This involvement of the military could impact politics and democratic stability over the next decade after the health crisis recedes.
Venezuela - Guaido vs Maduro continues amid coronavirus
It has been a busy week of news out of Venezuela. The key point of it all is that the political struggle between Guaido and Maduro continues. Coronavirus has reshaped how the two men claiming to be president compete against each other, but it has not ended the political instability in the country.
Last Thursday, the US Department of Justice indicted 14 people in the Venezuelan regime and offered millions of dollars of rewards for the arrest and conviction of several including Nicolas Maduro and Diosdado Cabello.
The indictments came amid increasing calls for the reduction of sanctions on Venezuela so that the country is not hindered in its ability to deal with coronavirus.
On Saturday, Rosneft announced they had sold their Venezuelan interests to a Russian state firm. Some analysts initially suggested that it was a sign sanctions are working, but several days later the general consensus shifted to the belief that this was Putin’s way of holding tighter to his position in Venezuela.
On Tuesday, the State Department announced a plan to transition back to democracy that included both Maduro and Guaido stepping down from their current roles.
Also on Tuesday, immediately following the announcement of the new US proposal, the Maduro regime demanded that Juan Guaido provide testimony related to the seizure of a weapons shipment.
Corruption Corner
Region - Transparency International published a report outlining how to improve public procurement during the coronavirus pandemic. The report and accompanying press releases also suggest that past corruption in Latin America is to blame for states’ lack of resources to combat coronavirus. Corruption in the coronavirus fight could cost lives if contracts are awarded to firms who offer kickbacks but can’t deliver on needed equipment.
Reading List
Americas Quarterly - The Millennials Guiding Latin American Economies In Crisis
Project Syndicate - Martin Guzman: Five Principles for the Pandemic
Reuters - With U.S. hit by virus, China courts Latin America with medical diplomacy
Bloomberg - Virus Adds to Inflation Doubts at Key Time for Latin America
Brookings - As coronavirus hits Latin America, expect serious and enduring effects
NYT - ‘I Can’t Stop’: In Vast Informal Economy, Pandemic Adds to Pressure
Washington Post - Coronavirus collides with Latin America’s maid culture — with sometimes deadly results
Washington Post - The world’s indigenous peoples, with tragic history of disease, implore outsiders to keep coronavirus away
NPR - Mexico's President Greets El Chapo's Mom And Lawyer, Ignoring Coronavirus Rules
AP - Mexico president joins 1st international summit -- from home
Reuters - Mexico scrambles to meet desperate U.S., European ventilator demand
Mexico Today - AMLO & Covid, Calderón & H1N1
AP - Facebook joins resistance to Bolsonaro virus claims
NYT - Gun Ownership Soars in Brazil Under Bolsonaro
Reuters - Maracana stadium transformed as work begins on Rio field hospital
Reuters - Coronavirus stalls Chinese approvals of new Brazil meat exports
The Guardian - Brazil scales back environmental enforcement amid coronavirus outbreak
AP - Fifth Guajajara tribesman killed in Brazil in five months
AP - Venezuelan crown jewel rum distillery takes on coronavirus
Washington Post - By indicting Maduro, Trump is kneecapping a transition in Venezuela
AP - El Salvador homicides drop; experts point to virus lock-down
AP - Venezuela's only telecoms satellite is lost in space
Vice - Phineas Fisher Says They Paid $10,000 Bounty to Person Who Hacked Chilean Military
Global Americans - Countering China through Infrastructure Investments
Thanks for reading
Please feel free to email me with questions and comments. Have a great weekend!