Trust and Quarantines - March 2020
Many South American governments enter this year's crisis weakened by last year's protests
Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela have all implemented some type of nationwide quarantine and travel ban. While some of the details differ, the measures announced by the leaders of each of those countries are remarkably similar. Other than Bolsonaro, every leader in South America has taken the threat of coronavirus seriously.
To suggest that those seven governments have similar policies on paper does not mean that those policies are received by their respective populations in the same way. What occurred in 2019 impacts the legitimacy and trust populations place in the governments that are implementing these policies in 2020. Even as Latin American publics broadly approve of quarantine measures, a government order to quarantine the population is received differently in each country.
Unrest in 2019 led to low trust in government among many populations
My rankings in the chart below are simple and subjective. Focused on the trust in the president/national government, I’ve based the below on polling that I’ve seen, interviews I’ve done with local journalists and analysts living in each country, as well as just a general reading of the situation based on monitoring local media reports. I’m sure plenty of readers will disagree with me on some or all of them.
At one extreme, there is Peru. President Martin Vizcarra won his institutional battles against his opponents late last year, has the trust of the population, and his approval rating has risen as he’s taken strict actions to combat the spread of coronavirus. Even before coronavirus, Vizcarra was also well regarded by foreign governments, bondholders and many analysts for how he is managing the country generally.
On the other extreme is Maduro in Venezuela. He’s stunningly unpopular, considered both authoritarian and incompetent in his governance style, faces questions about his legitimacy locally due to National Assembly President Juan Guaido’s claim to power, and is not recognized by over 50 foreign governments. To add to the lack of trust, Maduro is also lying about the number of cases and has used the coronavirus crisis to crack down on his political opponents. In those ways, his implementation of the quarantine measures is different than the other six countries on the list.
Whether a leader is using the coronavirus crisis to consolidate power is the big question of the moment in Bolivia. Interim President Añez had no real choice but to postpone the election and the postponement was done in accordance with the Electoral Tribunal, which is relatively well regarded. And yet, the move still doesn’t sit well with many. The country is already stuck with an interim president of questionable legitimacy who is running in the presidential election in spite of previous promises to not do so. For her to hold on to power for a day longer than absolutely necessary, even as she campaigns to be elected president, will create doubts among the population as to the legitimacy of the health measures and the democratic process.
Chile, Colombia, and Ecuador have leaders who are unpopular with their local populations and who faced protests in late 2019. Yet, even while unpopular, all three retain a level of democratic legitimacy with their populations. Since the crisis began, the limited polling available shows the three presidents have seen a slight boost in their ratings, but remain generally unpopular. In Chile and Colombia, leftwing opponents of the presidents have demanded even swifter and stricter health measures, leading to some criticisms for the presidents but general support for their quarantine efforts. The three presidents are generally regarded positively by foreign governments and investors as technocratic and honest brokers.
Argentina’s situation is unique in that President Fernandez, recently elected with under 50% of the vote, is now gaining support with his quarantine measures. This crisis has become a chance for him to build legitimacy and trust with the population. At the same time, his negotiations with foreign creditors and his generally positive relations with Maduro have many foreign stakeholders questioning his policies early in his term.
Why does trust matter?
The sustainability of the measures. No quarantine will succeed via repression by security forces alone. While large numbers of Latin American citizens support the quarantine measures, maintaining them in place for weeks requires political leadership and social capital. In countries where trust in the government is low, it is more likely that citizens and local leaders will attempt to set their own rules in the weeks ahead. While the early weeks of quarantine have played out similarly, trust in government could be a factor in how the effectiveness of the quarantine diverges in the coming months.
Political agreements for economic recovery. In a crisis, presidents who are popular will have an easier time getting public buy-in and reaching political agreements with their opponents than presidents who are unpopular. Every country needs substantial economic packages to provide social safety nets and eventual recovery from recession.
The potential for political clashes, protests or other unrest amid quarantine. As the quarantine drags on, political unrest is more likely to occur in countries where the population lacks trust in the president. As the novelty of quarantine wears, the points of conflict in late 2019 are likely to reemerge. Political oppositions will look to score points, particularly against unpopular leaders. Populations will demand action on the reforms they were promised. Postponed elections (Bolivia) and referendums (Chile) must eventually be held and their results respected.
Building for the future. Latin American economies, healthcare systems, and societies will be reshaped by the coronavirus crisis this year. The countries with high trust in their leadership will be more likely to follow those leaders moving forward while the countries with low trust will be looking for new leadership with new ideas. This dynamic will play out in a very notable way in Chile, where the constitution is about to be rewritten over the reticence of many in the ruling political class.
Thanks for reading
This newsletter came about as I considered some of the variables that would impact how various Latin American countries look one year from today. In writing it, I ended up raising a lot of questions for myself. Can any president turn around their unpopular administration with a strong crisis response? What is the tipping point at which the economic pain turns Latin American citizens against quarantine measures and how many months (or weeks) away is that point? What does this idea of trust mean for Mexico and Brazil, where both presidents have responded quite poorly? I’ll continue thinking and writing about those issues and look forward to any questions or comments that readers send in.