Latin America Risk Report - 11 June 2020
Guyana and Suriname elections reflect the anti-incumbent wave
In this edition:
Guyana and Suriname elections reflect the anti-incumbent wave
Bolivia - The election monitoring challenge
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Guyana and Suriname elections reflect the anti-incumbent wave
Recent elections in Suriname and Guyana have shared traits with many recent Latin American elections. In Suriname, opponents to President Desi Bouterse appear to have won a plurality of the seats and should have an opportunity to form a new government. In Guyana, after weeks of vote counting and recounting, the opposition to President Granger appears to have won a narrow majority.
Most analysts do not place Guyana and Suriname within Latin America. Their presidential elections are more similar parliamentary systems than the traditional presidential systems that define this hemisphere. But there are still several points from these two elections that may also apply to Latin American politics moving forward.
Incumbents are losing. These two elections fit into the anti-incumbent moment that I wrote about at the end of 2019. After four decades of incumbent presidents almost never losing when they ran for reelection, we’ve now seen four incumbent presidents fail to win reelection in the past 12 months in South America.
Oppositions are participating and winning. Both the PPP in Guyana and the United Reform Party in Suriname questioned the conditions of the elections prior to their being held (it turns out for good reason in both cases). However, both chose to participate and made the most of their opportunity. This also leads to a lesson that a certain neighbor of Guyana needs to relearn: Boycotting elections doesn’t push bad leaders out.
Elections are close. While there are some exceptions (AMLO and Bukele come to mind), narrow and disputed margins have become more common than decisive victories in recent years. That has added to the political tensions in many countries, especially when presidents who win narrowly act as if they have wide mandates for change.
The vote count paused. In both Guyana and Suriname, the vote counting process was slow and at times seemed to stall due to politics rather than logistics. This was reminiscent of recent elections in Bolivia and Honduras where the incumbent presidents appeared to stall the vote counts when they didn’t show the desired results. We should all be concerned about this trend.
Vote counts are disputed and the fights over recounts are getting uglier. When the initial counting process is in question and the margin of victory narrow, the questions of if, when and how to recount votes become much more politically volatile. Every vote should be counted accurately and recounted if necessary, but the fights over recounts create another possibility for post election manipulation and tension. Recounts or rerun elections also lead to potential extensions of unelected leaders holding power while disputes are decided (see Haiti and Bolivia in recent years).
It’s not over until the incumbent steps down. As of the writing of this newsletter, Granger and Bouterse are both still presidents of their countries. Transitions to new leadership aren’t planned yet. Part of this is due to the details of the presidential selection process in those two countries, but the situation provides an opportunity for both presidents to use their authorities to try to hold on.
While many countries have had successful transitions of power among political parties, too often incumbent presidents manipulate election processes to try to hold on to power for too long. That trend is clashing against the anti-incumbent environment. Guyana and Suriname’s elections are likely signs of things to come across the region when those trends clash.
Bolivia - The election monitoring challenge
OAS election monitors played an absolutely critical role in providing the opposition a fair chance to unseat the incumbent presidents in Guyana and Suriname. However, the OAS election monitoring program faced a different challenge this week out of Bolivia.
A new study of Bolivia’s 2019 presidential election cast doubt on one aspect of the detailed OAS report demonstrating fraud in the election. The study by Nicolas Idrobo, Dorothy Kronick, and Francisco Rodriguez said the statistical modeling done by the OAS about the jump in votes for Morales after the vote counting restarted did not indicate fraud. The study only addresses that one point and does not address the totality of the evidence that the OAS says showed the Morales government attempted to commit fraud.
Of course, this controversy hasn’t changed anyone’s mind. If you thought the OAS unfairly assisted in pushing Morales out, then this study reinforced your view that the OAS was at fault for the coup in Bolivia. If you thought the OAS evidence for Morales’s fraud was fairly overwhelming (which is my view), then you view this study as nitpicking at the details while ignoring the bigger evidence of fraud that was discovered and reported (forged signatures, manipulated ballots, fake servers to transmit data).
Still, the additional controversy in Bolivia adds to the election monitoring challenge for the OAS across the region. It contributes to the growing view among many activists that the election observation is not politically neutral.
Election monitoring works great when elections are mostly free and fair. It provides confidence in the system and boosts the legitimacy of the winner. It can also offer useful recommendations for improvements (because every election process has flaws).
But when incumbents attempt to steal elections in spite of the presence of observers, it’s not clear what should happen next. The OAS criticized the fraud that occurred in Honduras in 2017, but did nothing to prevent Juan Orlando Hernandez from remaining in power undemocratically. Haiti’s recent experiences in election delays and election reruns amid fraud accusations have been far from ideal. Even prior to this recent study, Bolivia’s last election was both the best and worst example of what election observation can provide. The OAS called out a fraud by the incumbent president and prevented his stealing the election, which is what it should do; but the military then used that fraud to legitimize its call for the president to resign.
Whether or not you technically classify what occurred in Bolivia as a “coup” (I do), you should recognize the OAS lost some of its veneer of impartiality when it cheered Morales’s removal rather than discussed the very problematic circumstances, including the OAS’s own actions, that led to it. The Inter-American Democratic Charter exists to protect democratic institutions. The OAS should not be cheering militaries removing presidents, even when those presidents act undemocratically.
The OAS needs to embrace the challenge of rebuilding trust in election monitoring. Specifically, the organization needs to discuss what its options are when elections are stolen. It must also be more consistent about using the Inter-American Democratic Charter.
The OAS’s critics should also be respectful of the very difficult role that election observers play. They’re collecting data and writing reports that must be published quickly to be relevant. They’re balancing sensitive politics at some of the most tense moments in a country’s democratic system. The mistakes found months after the fact should not be treated as definitive evidence of malfeasance.
Corruption Corner
Region - Americas Quarterly published their Capacity to Combat Corruption Index for 2020. The region’s willingness to investigate and prosecute corruption has reduced, most notably in Brazil. At the same time, government spending on coronavirus response and recovery creates new opportunities for corruption in an environment where monitoring the money flows is more difficult.
Above: Map from the report. PDF located here.
Mexico - Union organizer Susana Prieto was detained by local authorities while pushing for better conditions at factors impacted by coronavirus. Authorities charged her with threatening public officials. I covered the Matamoros workers’ strikes in a newsletter for paying subscribers in February 2019. At the time, I noted that Prieto often jumps in to situations where workers are protesting and then takes large fees for her services. As I wrote at the time, “Her actions make companies feel like they were being professionally extorted while workers feel the difficulties from their strikes were barely worth it after having to pay her. There is a widespread view that she uses labor disputes to engage in corruption of her own.” It’s unfortunate because many of the workers who Prieto claims to represent have legitimate grievances with their working conditions and are not represented fairly by the current union structure.
Venezuela, Colombia - C4ADS published a report on Alex Saab and his role in assisting the Maduro regime evade sanctions.
Reading List
Americas Quarterly - COVID-19 May Ultimately Strengthen Latin America’s Democracies, Not Destroy Them
OjoPublico - Armas en América: el otro arsenal de un continente violento
Economist - Coronavirus cases are surging in Latin America
Bloomberg - Inflation in Full Retreat Means Latin America Can Boost Stimulus
New York Times - Threat of Military Action Rattles Brazil as Virus Deaths Surge
Bloomberg - Gung-Ho Brazil Prosecutors Become Unlikely Commodity Influencers
Guardian - 'We'll disappear you': Mexican protesters recount terror of police abduction
The Dialogue - AMLO Falters on his Commitment to Combat Impunity
Washington Post - Mexico is a deadly place to be a journalist but sophisticated bot attacks are increasing the danger
Washington Post - Could two Mexican presidents make the same historic mistake of meeting with Trump?
Washington Post - ¿Por qué el COVID-19 y las detenciones no frenan al narco en CDMX?
Wall Street Journal - Deaths Prompt Questions About Covid-19 Safety in Mexico Factories
Reuters - Oil tankers turn away from Venezuela as more sanctions loom
Guardian - Sandinista leaders fall victim to coronavirus outbreak they downplayed
OCCRP - The Riviera Maya Gang: Global ATM Bandits
Thanks for reading
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