Leaving the 2010’s in an anti-incumbent moment
As we enter the 2020's, Latin American populations are turning against ruling parties and political systems.
Leaving the 2010’s in an anti-incumbent moment
2019 will be remembered as a year of protest and anti-incumbent anger in Latin America. This year’s anger caps off a decade of relative disappointment in political leaders and institutions. We leave the 2010’s and enter the 2020’s in a regional anti-incumbent moment unlike anything seen in recent Latin American history.
Elections in 2019 led to new governments in El Salvador, Panama, Guatemala, Argentina and Uruguay. Mauricio Macri became only the third incumbent in Latin America to lose a reelection campaign in the last 40 years. Bolivia’s Evo Morales could have also been in that category had he not attempted to steal an election and been kicked out of office. If you want to take the question back to 2018, incumbent parties were ousted in Costa Rica, Colombia, Mexico and Brazil. In fact, in the past two years, the only incumbent party in Latin America to maintain power in a free and fair election was Paraguay’s Colorado Party.
Of the current presidents in office, all but four presidents are under 50% approval. Many are well below the 50% mark with several years remaining in their term.
Even those few presidents with majority support (Lopez Obrador, Bukele, Vizcarra) maintain support due to their unending campaigns against the political establishment and the unpopularity of their opponents. Less than one month in office, most political observers believe Alberto Fernandez’s approval ratings will quickly drop in the coming months.
Stable governments in a time of instability
Latin America’s anti-incumbent anger has not generated coups or other unscheduled changes in power. Disruptive protests occurred this past year in Venezuela, Argentina, Honduras, Nicaragua, Ecuador, Chile, and Colombia. Peru and Paraguay went through major constitutional crises. None of those countries saw a change in government outside of Argentina’s election. The only exception, Bolivia, occurred during a disputed election cycle in which the president was likely to lose in the second round.
Latin America’s Armed Forces appear to be increasingly relevant to the political stability of certain governments in the region, but the 2010’s were not a time when the military’s decided when presidents would leave power. During the 2010’s, Latin America only had five presidents leave power in an unscheduled way. Two were impeached (Lugo and Dilma) and two forced to resign due to corruption (PPK and OPM). Even in unscheduled and controversial changes in power, some semblance of institutionality ruled the day. Bolivia’s military coup (even if some would dispute that term given Morales’s attempt to steal the election) in late 2019 was the first in over a decade going back to the June 2009 Honduras coup.
Stability isn’t always a good thing. While the 1990’s and 2000’s saw populists expand their authority through votes and referenda, the late 2010’s have seen a backsliding in democracy and an increase in authoritarian tendencies. Honduras, Nicaragua and Venezuela are examples of unpopular presidents who illegitimately remain in power via undemocratic means including stolen elections, corruption, and violent repression. Evo Morales thought he could steal the election in Bolivia because three other presidents had successfully done the same thing in the past three years.
The fight for 2020: Anti-incumbent sentiment vs stable governments
As I’ve written before, the anti-incumbent sentiment is a key reason Latin America is likely to see more protests in 2020. The protests will cause property damage and disrupt day-to-day life. Governments will be under pressure. But will presidents fall? The anti-incumbent sentiment is pushing directly against the regional trend of relatively stable governments and a lack of coups or other unscheduled changes of power.
Elections are an ideal steam valve and this clash of trends would ideally be decided with incumbent parties losing elections. However, there aren’t many presidential elections scheduled for 2020 or early 2021 in Latin America. In the next 18 months, only Bolivia, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador and Peru are scheduled to hold general elections. Mexico may have a recall election in mid-2021 with AMLO on the ballot. Conditional on its constitutional rewriting process, Chile’s election nearly two years from now in late 2021 will start the next supercycle of elections that will run through 2022.
That lull of the electoral cycle will place pressure on many presidents who are unpopular and facing protest demands with no electoral steam valve. Some, like Chile, will resolve this with a referendum process. Others will need to open up negotiations with protesters and potentially give ground on their demands, as has been seen in Ecuador and Colombia. Presidents who fail to adapt to the new circumstances are most at risk of being pushed out.
With populations angry at political systems, Latin America will see a rise of new populists along the lines of Jair Bolsonaro, AMLO and Nayib Bukele who can capture the sentiment of the street and translate it into new political parties and movements. However, those populists, once elected, will almost certainly face fiscal constraints and inevitably declining poll numbers. Populists who are unpopular are a potential danger to democracy.
Key questions remain over Venezuela, Honduras and Nicaragua. While the unpopular presidents of other countries hold on to power in part due to the democratic legitimacy of being elected, those three de facto leaders only have repression and the support of their militaries to keep them around. Those countries may or may not hold elections in the coming two years and those elections may or may not be free and fair. The existence and conditions of those elections are demands of protesters and likely dependent on some sort of negotiations among actors. Meanwhile, those three countries are where the demands for the leaders to leave office early are strongest and most legitimate. It’s easy to say that Latin America could use a bit of “good instability” in those countries. However, finding solutions that are non-violent, democratic, and improve the lives of the people of those countries is a difficult proposition and a challenge for the hemisphere.
Thanks for reading
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