In this edition
Bolsonaro’s first 100 days
Sandra Torres leads Guatemala presidential polls
Venezuela update
Bolsonaro’s first 100 days
Latin America experts often cite the cliche “Brazil is not for beginners,” yet the country elected an amateur as president. In spite of nearly 30 years in politics, Jair Bolsonaro had little experience pushing through legislation or managing an organization of any size, and that lack of experience has shown in his opening months in office. Brazilian voters elected Bolsonaro to deal with the problems of a flagging economy and rampant corruption. He has mismanaged the opening weeks of his presidency and is failing on the key issues. He faces challenges on many fronts going forward.
Weak approval rating - As Bolsonaro passes his 100 day mark this week, his approval rating is down in the low 30s. The most recent Datafolha poll has Bolsonaro with 32% saying his government is doing excellent or good and 30% saying bad or terrible. 33% classify it as average. Other polls show a similar decline for the president.
That weak approval has real implications for Bolsonaro’s agenda. Members of Congress and leaders of local governments are far less likely to roll over for a president who doesn’t have popular support. Bolsonaro doesn’t have political capital to accomplish much and can’t use his popular support to pressure others in the political system to his will.
Limited early accomplishments - Bolsonaro’s early “wins” read like a human rights nightmare scenario. He ordered new restrictions on NGOs, placed indigenous territory issues under the Agriculture Ministry, removed LGBT rights as an issue from the human rights office, and pushed for immunity for police who kill people while on duty. His biggest policy change has been a decree to expand gun rights, not exactly the top of voters’ lists of concerns.
Bolsonaro’s failures partially stem from his inability to manage the Congress and its multiple competing parties. A recent WSJ article suggested Bolsonaro has failed to work well with Congress because he has rejected the political coalition building styles of his predecessors. Alternatively, Bolsonaro’s poor relationship with Congress can be blamed on a poorly managed and distracted transition process that never set an agenda or strategy for getting things passed.
Internal fighting - The president has fired three cabinet ministers as his administration has struggled with internal fights among its various groups including the military, evangelicals and conspiracy theorists.
Economy - Many in the business community were willing to look past Bolsonaro’s troubling personality and concerns about potential human rights abuses, militarization and backwards social policies in the hopes that he and his top economic advisor, Paulo Guedes, would pass a “pro-business” agenda including pension reform. He’s failing there too.
There was an initial surge for Brazilian markets as Bolsonaro took office, but markets have fallen and the Real has weakened in the past month as prospects for economic reforms look less likely.
Overlapping corruption scandals - The new president started his administration on the wrong foot by naming a cabinet of men already implicated in multiple corruption scandals. It then got worse as Bolsonaro’s son Flavio was accused of having over US$350,000 routed through his driver. In recent weeks, new evidence has emerged linking Bolsonaro and his sons to various paramilitary groups in Brazil including two assassins who killed Rio councillor Marielle Franco last year.
Beyond the specific corruption scandals hitting the government, the policies to address corruption are stalled. As with Bolsonaro’s efforts on pension reform, plans to reform the justice and the anti-corruption system are stuck in the Congress. On anti-corruption in particular, there is little interest in Congress where many members remain under investigation.
The worst is yet to come - As his popularity drops and he fails to pass needed economic reforms, Bolsonaro is likely to turn more extreme. Demands for personal loyalty to the president and his family will limit the circle of advisors willing to work in or with the administration and could lead to moderating influences being pushed out. More corruption scandals are likely to be exposed.
Sandra Torres leads Guatemala presidential polls
Guatemala’s presidential campaign has begun. The first round of the election to replace President Jimmy Morales is scheduled for 16 June with an expected second round on 11 August. Congressional elections will happen on the same date as the first round. While Sandra Torres leads the polls, the key issue of the moment is the other two leading candidates face legal challenges that may bar them from the ballot. These legal challenges are a result of an effort by President Morales and his allies to manipulate the system to ensure they retain power and are not prosecuted by a future administration.
Read more analysis of the upcoming Guatemala election here.
Venezuela update
Juan Guaido organized a large protest on 6 April, something he called the opening of his Operation Liberty. The turnout was strong while the government’s counter-rally remained quite small. The speech hinted at upcoming actions, but did not provide a timeframe for when the final push would occur.
Though the electricity has mostly stabilized in Caracas, there were continued occasional blackouts in neighborhoods throughout the capital and much more frequent and lengthier outages in western Venezuela. Water shortages continue to be a serious problem and are likely to lead to additional violent protests in the coming weeks.
Two pieces of economic news hint at additional challenges for Maduro. The IMF froze Maduro’s access to approximately $400 million in Special Drawing Rights. OPEC secondary sources reported that the country only produced 732,000 barrels per day of oil in March, far below the 960,000 bpd that Venezuela self-reported.
The bad economic news for Maduro was countered by reports that eight tons of gold were removed from the Central Bank. It is unclear whether the gold is going or how it will be used - to prop Maduro up or be syphoned away by a corruption scheme. Either way, the increasing loss of foreign reserves will make stability more difficult for the post-Maduro government whenever it comes to power.
Hxagon’s model remains at 70% for Maduro losing power in 2019, largely due to the increasing economic challenges that his regime will face in the coming months. My late January commentary about the factors playing into Maduro’s stability can be read here.
Corruption Corner
Peru - Former President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski was ordered arrested due to his involvement in the Odebrecht scandal. Many politicians criticized the detention, suggesting it was overkill for someone who had not fled the country and was cooperating with prosecutors. However, in the current anti-corruption environment, the public may view it differently.
Brazil - Switzerland has sent over US$350 million back to Brazil as part of the Odebrecht investigation and prosecutions. Around 70 cases are ongoing in the country and the amount of money returned to Brazil could double in the coming months.
Colombia - In an interview with AQ, Colombia’s Inspector General Fernando Carrillo says the region should use the lessons learned in fighting violent criminal organizations in order to cooperate on anti-corruption efforts.
Reading List
Inter-American Dialogue - Remittances to Latin America and the Caribbean in 2018
Foreign Policy - U.S. Military Wary of China’s Foothold in Venezuela
InSight Crime - The Sinaloa Cartel’s ‘El Mayo,’ Mexico’s Last True Capo
NYT - Climate Chaos Is Coming — and the Pinkertons Are Ready
Vanessa Barbara, NYT - The Rise of the Milícia State
The New European - Belize’s Big Gamble
The New Republic - Is Mexico on the Brink of a Labor Revolution?
Thanks For Reading
I appreciate the comments and feedback in recent weeks. Please continue to reach out with comments, questions and suggestions for coverage. Additionally, please forward this email to your friends and colleagues you believe would be interested and encourage them to sign up for the free weekly.