Venezuela stability analysis - 29 January 2019

Maduro will likely leave power in 2019

Hxagon’s model shows a 60% chance that Nicolas Maduro leaves power in 2019.

That is up from around 35% at the beginning of the year. I’ve been running some form of prediction model about potential political change in Venezuela for over five years and this is the first time that the probability has risen above 50% for a potential change in the coming 12 …