Latin America is still flattening the curve - April 2020
However, cases continue to rise and the health situation will likely worsen in the coming weeks. Mexico’s lack of testing should concern everyone.
A week ago, I wrote that Latin America is flattening the curve. Seven days later, that still appears to be true. Here is the chart comparing confirmed cases in several Latin American countries to the United States, Italy and Japan.
The growth curve for cases in major Latin American countries remains well below the acceleration that occurred in the United State and Italy around this same time frame. That is a credit to early social distancing efforts including some fairly strict quarantines in many of the countries.
As I wrote last week, in spite of the weaknesses in the data and some of the disparities among countries in terms of testing and other factors, I still find these data points to be relevant for understanding the general pace of the spread of Covid-19 around the region.
Semana Santa and Easter may have played some role in the data over the past week. When looking at new cases, three day and seven day averages tend to work better than focusing on a spike or a drop on any specific day.
Flattening the curve does not mean things are better
New cases continue to increase in most of Latin America. While we should all be glad the region avoided a worst case scenario, that does not mean that it has successfully contained the virus. The situation in most countries is likely to worsen in the coming weeks.
In flattening the curve, Latin America has pushed its peak level of cases into the future. Most countries will not hit the peak of new cases until May or June. That is positive for their healthcare systems, which cannot handle a rapid spike in cases. However, it also means a longer period of time in which quarantines must be maintained.
In the past week, reports out of Brazil and Mexico have admitted that they have significantly more cases than the data report. A lack of testing and a high number of asymptomatic cases mean that’s true for every country in the world. However, given how the leadership of those two countries have been in denial about the scale of the problem, it was good to hear a dose of reality from respected researchers and health officials.
Brazil continues to have the highest growth of new confirmed cases in the region. The number of new confirmed cases has increased in the past week, reflecting both a real increase and some additional testing. Local universities that are tracking the spread of the disease expect things to continue worsening through the month of May.
In spite of strict quarantine measures, Peru has seen a spike in the past week, placing it closer to the level of Chile in terms of confirmed cases. However, the reason for that spike is almost certainly greater testing, which is a positive move for the country.
As the chart above indicates, Mexico’s testing levels remain atrociously low, especially given the population of the country is several times larger than Chile or Peru. Mexico’s failure to ramp up testing means that the number of undetected cases is high. The lack of testing means officials may be caught off guard as various cities in the country see spikes in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming weeks, something that has already begun to occur in Tijuana.
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