Latin America is flattening the curve - April 2020

Data from the past two weeks show the region’s containment efforts have had some positive effects

On 23 March I wrote that Latin America had a two week head start in terms of managing coronavirus compared to Asia, Europe and the United States. One question was whether they could implement measures that flattened the growth curve of the virus and helped prepare their under-funded healthcare systems for a surge of cases.

The good news is that every country in the region has managed to flatten their curve beneath that of Italy and the United States at this same point in time (using the date countries hit 100 confirmed cases as the starting point). While not as controlled as Japan, the region has avoided the worst case outcomes related to coronavirus that were imaginable two weeks ago. 

Source: Graphic based on data from Our World in Data website, which is updating its coronavirus data daily from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).

Confirmed cases is far from a perfect measure. It is simultaneously attempting to measure the spread of the virus, the scale of testing, and the government’s willingness to disclose accurate information. Also complicating the measure is the fact the virus has a lengthy period before symptoms appear and infects a large number of people who are asymptomatic. With those limitations in mind, we have to work with the data that are available.

Comments on the countries

Brazil - Even Brazil, where President Jair Bolsonaro remains in denial about coronavirus, has managed to keep its curve flatter than the United States or the worst hit countries in Europe. However, Brazil’s curve is clearly running above the rest of the region and is also several days ahead of the region in terms of timeline. The number of cases is likely to rise significantly in the coming weeks.

Chile - Outside of Brazil, Chile’s number of confirmed cases has run higher than the rest of Latin America. However, Chile’s rate of hospitalizations and deaths per case is much lower than the rest of the region. While there are a few reasons this may be the case, the most likely explanation is Chile is managing a more effective testing effort than its neighbors (a BBC article this week offers a similar explanation). The country’s response can be compared to Germany in Europe, which has seen similar trendlines in terms of high numbers of cases but fewer deaths than its neighbors.

Mexico - Mexico’s numbers are running parallel to Peru, Panama and Argentina. While I have no proof, I don’t think that is accurate. I highly doubt that Mexico, where President Lopez Obrador delayed significant containment measures and is still in denial about the seriousness of the virus, has managed to keep its cases as contained as countries that implemented early and strict quarantines. Limited testing and government obfuscation are likely to blame. If I’m correct and the case numbers are higher than reported, that should start to show up in increased hospitalizations in Mexico in the coming weeks.

Colombia - Colombia’s curve is running flatter than the rest of its neighbors who are accurately reporting data. It is likely a sign of early success, though one that will be difficult to maintain for months to come in populous and urbanized areas of the country. Like much of the rest of the region, the country should be doing a greater number of tests, even if that means a greater number of confirmed cases as has happened in Chile.

Peru - Peru has had one of the strictest quarantine measures in place since the beginning of the spread of the virus in the country. While Vizcarra has benefited politically from the decisive quarantine measures, the negative impact on the economy has also been among the toughest in the region. The country has seen a slight acceleration of confirmed cases in recent days, but it’s too early to tell if that is a trend, a movement due to greater testing, or a statistical blip.

Venezuela - I don’t put Venezuela on the graph because it’s fairly clear the Maduro regime is outright lying about the number of cases (they still report fewer than 200 nationwide). Various sources including the Caracas Chronicles Political Risk Report have reported that Maduro’s military commanders know they have hundreds of cases within the military and among PDVSA workers that have not been counted in the official statistics.  It remains likely that Venezuela will be among the hardest hit by the virus due to the political and humanitarian conditions that existed before the virus spread.

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