Colombia - ADLE’s first legislative defeat
The Petro-Uribe alliance is weird and unlikely to hold, but demonstrates that President-elect de la Espriella doesn’t have guaranteed control of Congress.
Colombia’s new Congress took office on July 20 and immediately gave President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella his first legislative defeat. Senator Honorio Henríquez of the Centro Democrático won the Senate presidency 56-45 over Alfredo Deluque of La U, the candidate the incoming government had openly promoted.1 It was a surprise defeat as eight parties had publicly pledged 55 votes for Deluque, meaning ten votes flipped in the secret ballot.
It’s a win for legislative independence. Two days before the vote, incoming interior minister Rodrigo Lara gave El Tiempo an interview describing Deluque’s election as the “baptism” of the coalition and a reciprocal gesture the Congress owed a president who won without the parties. Lara’s demand for legislative fealty to the new president did not go over well with many of the members of Congress who correctly understand that they were also elected democratically by the population.
A brief and weird Uribe-Petro alliance. The other shocking event was watching the Uribista politician win with the full backing of President Petro’s Pacto Histórico. Iván Cepeda openly showed his ballot to choose Henríquez as the Senate president. It’s almost out of character that Petro and Cepeda were so eager to stick the president-elect with an early loss that they pragmatically provided Uribe’s party with a win.
In a newsletter earlier this month, I wrote about the analogy between de la Espriella and Bukele.
Is Abelardo the Colombian Bukele?
Questions about the Bukele model are persistent in Latin American politics, which, to give El Salvador’s president some reluctant credit, demonstrates just how sticky and successful his narrative building and branding have been.
For me, one concerning thought about yesterday’s vote is how it parallels the early days of Bukele’s authoritarian presidency. Bukele won by campaigning against the traditional politicians of the country. For a moment after Bukele won the Salvadoran presidency, the FMLN and ARENA united to oppose Bukele. If anything, this made Bukele stronger, letting him continue his outsider image against the corrupt political elite. While neither the CD nor Pacto Histórico are among Colombia’s “traditional” parties, they are the 21st century (so far!) standard bearers of the right and left and a portion of the electorate preferred Abelardo as an alternative to that polarized system. I don’t think Abelardo will successfully follow the Bukele model, but if I’m wrong, it may be that he successfully uses the Petro-Uribe alliance narrative to consolidate control.
The ideology of the CD and the math still favor the ADLE government during the honeymoon. Yesterday’s vote doesn’t change the fact that Uribe and the CD are far closer to ADLE than they are to Petro. Now with control of the upper chamber, the Centro Democrático is likely to stick to its coalition with the government, which has a majority, and pass ADLE’s early agenda items. Yesterday’s vote, however, also gives Uribe’s party leverage to shape the agenda (likely demanding their own preferences on the upcoming tax reform bill) and reminds the incoming president that they are independent and capable of handing him defeats when necessary.
How does the Pacto manage being in opposition, and how does ADLE treat his opponents? The Pacto took the Senate’s second vice presidency (Alejandro Ocampo), and early reporting has Petrista allies holding five of sixteen seats on the Comisión de Acusaciones, the body that investigates ex-presidents. Further, with yesterday’s vote, they have demonstrated they are willing to be a force that can block the president when aligned with the CD, a threat the new president must take seriously. One thing to watch is whether de la Espriella will try to lash out and shut down his political opponents early, which would be a threat to Colombian democracy. Petro is certainly eager to goad the new government into it with his own outrageous comments and behavior. As he exits, the president continues to promote a false narrative about electoral fraud that is angering the incoming government and most of the Congress. Petro’s ego is absolutely capable of turning this brief victory into a defeat.
The House went the other way: Nicolás Barguil, a Conservative close to the incoming government, won the Cámara presidency with 180 votes.