Brazil's anti-corruption efforts face new challenges
The attempts to politicize and/or dismantle anti-corruption institutions will weaken democracy and help Bolsonaro consolidate control.
Three pieces of corruption news in the past week are interrelated and demonstrate how Brazil’s anti-corruption movement may be weakening:
President Jair Bolsonaro was asked about money his wife received from an associate and threatened to punch the journalist in the face.
Rio de Janeiro Governor Wilson Witzel was removed from his position and charged with corruption involving contracts that were issued to respond to the coronavirus emergency.
Reuters reported on the growing political pressure to end Lava Jato when it comes up for renewal in September.
Above: President Bolsonaro with his wife Michelle via Presidência.
The corruption scandal allegedly involving payments to Bolsonaro’s wife is the same one that has been following the president’s son Flavio. An aide to the family, Fabrício Queiroz, appears to have moved thousands of dollars per month from Rio state funds to the Bolsonaro family’s bank accounts over the past decade. The main allegation is that the Bolsonaros have run ghost employees on their staff and accepted kickbacks as a way of personally profiting from their government jobs.
Importantly, the investigation is largely a Rio de Janeiro state level issue. The prosecutors named by the governor are the ones who are digging into the Bolsonaro family affairs, something that adds to the recent political disputes between Bolsonaro and Witzel.
Partially due to their personal dispute and partially as retribution for the investigations against his family, it’s widely believed that Bolsonaro used his office to pressure federal prosecutors and police to target Witzel. Prosecutors are supposed to be autonomous and the fact Bolsonaro is pressuring prosecutors to investigate Witzel is a sign of trouble within the system.
I’m not defending Witzel. The evidence against Witzel is substantial. Some of the known facts run parallel to the Bolsonaro corruption scandals including the allegation that Witzel’s wife laundered government payments for him, much like Bolsonaro’s wife allegedly did.
Also troubling, Witzel’s replacement, Interim Governor Claudio Castro, appears to have cut a deal with Bolsonaro to appoint a chief prosecutor that will be less tough on the president and his allies. In exchange, Bolsonaro can use his influence to encourage federal investigators to go light on the interim Rio governor. Castro is also under investigation for being involved in the same pyramid scheme of kickbacks as Witzel. If Castro is allowed to remain even as he is accused of the same corruption as Witzel, it would point to a politicization of the process.
Anti-corruption institutions have been politically weakened
Amid the dueling Bolsonaro-Witzel corruption investigations, the entire Lava Jato anti-corruption mechanism may be dismantled by a political system that is tired of facing investigations. Although they are political opponents on nearly every issue, Bolsonaro and his allies have common cause with the politicians of the Workers’ Party who believe Brazil’s anti-corruption institutions unfairly disqualified from running and then imprisoned former President Lula. While everyone is rhetorically opposed to corruption, few within the Brazilian Congress are ideologically committed to keeping effective structures like Lava Jato in place.
Over the past decade, Brazil’s anti-corruption institutions have been lauded by the international community for their willingness to go after the most powerful people in the country. Lava Jato, however, lost some credibility among elites during the Temer government as they did more to target the PT than they did the corruption within the executive branch.
The Brazil-Mexico parallel
There is a president who wants all the political benefits of using anti-corruption efforts to target opponents while protecting his allies from prosecution. If that narrative sounds familiar, it’s because I wrote about Mexico’s Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador last week.
Bolsonaro wants what AMLO has: a politicized anti-corruption fight that targets opponents and protects allies.
One key difference is that Mexico has never had effective anti-corruption mechanisms and never targeted high ranking politicians while Brazil has effective and popular institutions. To succeed, Bolsonaro needs to dismantle a system that AMLO and previous presidents never allowed to be built in the first place.
A second difference is that Brazil, unlike Mexico, has a credible anti-corruption champion running for president in the next election: Sergio Moro. Brazil’s most famous anti-corruption advocate has lost some of his popularity and political capital domestically due to his prosecution of Lula, his previous alliance with Bolsonaro and his breakup with Brazil’s president. At the same time, Moro remains one of the top contenders for the presidency in two years and can only run on his anti-corruption bonafides. If Bolsonaro backtracks too far on corruption issues, it will only serve to strengthen Moro.
This moment is an important test for Brazilian institutions to see whether they can hold the line and consolidate the anti-corruption gains that have been made (that’s true even if it’s become a cliche that analysts have said at every critical juncture for the past decade). Brazil’s independent anti-corruption institutions are one of the few things within the system that can check Bolsonaro’s authoritarian populism. If Bolsonaro successfully rolls back the anti-corruption effort and politicizes corruption investigations, it will consolidate his power, encourage corruption, and make Brazil’s investment environment a less welcoming place.
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