Biden's Mexico and Brazil challenges

AMLO and Bolsonaro finally recognized the election victory of Joe Biden, but the delayed recognition is just a symptom of the challenges ahead.

Earlier this week, the presidents of Mexico and Brazil finally congratulated US President-elect Joe Biden on his victory. While most other presidents in the hemisphere did this weeks ago, these two presidents held out and were among the last leaders in the world to do so. (Though both acknowledged reality and congratulated President-elect Biden before Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.)

The Biden administration is unlikely to hold a grudge over delayed recognition. There are too many urgent tasks in the world to let that be an issue. The delayed recognition was never the problem. Instead, it is a symptom of the wider set of problems that the Biden administration will face with the leaders of Latin America’s two largest and most important countries.

AMLO senses transition vulnerabilities

President Lopez Obrador is attempting to take advantage of the fact the US is facing a rocky transition to strengthen his position against the incoming Biden administration. He pressured the Trump administration into handing back General Cienfuegos by threatening to remove DEA agents from the country. Now he is having his party pass legislation to restrict and potentially kick out US agents anyway. 

As just one example of how the transition is a vulnerable moment, Attorney General Bill Barr criticized Mexico’s bill regarding US agents. Then AG Barr was fired over his comments rejecting election fraud. Lopez Obrador has little reason to feel concern about pressure from a US administration that is confused and on its way out the door. 

After 20 January, it is almost certain that AMLO will pivot and try to find ways to play nice and cooperate with the Biden administration, at least in the early months. The Biden administration is likely to expect actual results on anti-corruption and better policies towards renewable energy, both areas where Lopez Obrador has done poorly. However, the security and economic issues along the border are so vital that there will be compromises on both sides to obtain a productive relationship. There will also be a focus on health-related policies and vaccine distribution.

Bolsonaro vs Biden is going to be far less friendly

How Bolsonaro will react to the new administration is less certain. There is little doubt that the professionals at Itamaraty and within Brazil’s military would like a formal and positive relationship with the US, even if they expect some policy differences in the coming years. Bolsonaro is far less diplomatic and strategic about his foreign relations. Picking fights and holding grudges is something he does, even when it’s not in his or Brazil’s best interest.

Even if Bolsonaro holds his tongue, his pro-Trump sons are likely to continue their public attacks and interference in US politics. Combined with the corruption investigations they face, the Bolsonaro family is going to be a major barrier to positive relations.

As I wrote in October, Biden’s comments during the campaign specifically calling out Bolsonaro and more generally promising a focus on climate change related issues also suggest tensions are on the way.

Biden’s leverage

Both AMLO and Bolsonaro are popular in their countries, but so is Biden. The new US president will be more popular than the current US administration among the populations of Latin America including in Mexico and Brazil. He’ll have more credibility and a broader view of dealing with populations and civil societies.

For the populist presidents of the region’s two biggest countries, the potential that the new administration goes around them and speaks directly to the population is a threat. While it’s not likely to occur immediately, nor is it clear how effective it would be, it is one card for Biden to use as leverage in any negotiations. 

The second piece of leverage is that the US Congress is going to play the role of bad cop to the Biden administration’s friendlier approach. AMLO’s legislative maneuvers to restrict US cooperation already have the ire of Congress, particularly the Republicans. The Democratic-controlled lower house is likely to take a hard line on Bolsonaro and his environmental policies, even if the Biden administration holds back. Analysts should expect an active and combative role from the US Congress during the coming years regarding US relations with these two countries.

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