2025 - Mid-year update with 80% predictions
Let's start the second half of the year with some new probable but not certain scenarios.
I started 2025 with some 80% predictions. I’ll still grade myself on those at the end of the year (I’m doing quite well), but I thought it could be a good exercise as a mid-year update as well for predictions over the coming 12 months.
As a reminder, the goal on 80% predictions is to be well-calibrated and achieve 7-9 out of 10 correct answers. Going 10 for 10 means I didn’t take enough risks in making these predictions (I predicted things that are too obvious) while going 6 for 10 or less means I’m inaccurate. Sometimes it’s worth writing out 80% predictions to prepare for the 20% scenarios (low probability but high impact events) that are out there.
Chile - The presidential election will go against the incumbent coalition. I start with a prediction that remains unchanged from January. I’d say the odds that the ruling coalition’s Jeannette Jara wins are 20% or perhaps even less (paying subscribers will get a Chile election update tomorrow with some analysis of the primary upset this past weekend). Matthei is the strongest candidate of the group and if I had to guess the winner today, she’s the most likely. However, the cycle of various candidates surging and falling in the coming months could lead to other outcomes, with nearly all of them to the center and right side of the political spectrum.
Argentina - Though Milei’s party is likely to make gains in the mid-term elections, those gains will be mainly at the expense of coalition partners. The Peronists will still have enough Congressional control after the election to stall and frustrate the president’s agenda. There is only a 20% chance that Milei’s party will perform strongly enough to sweep the elections and gain full control of both houses of Congress.
Costa Rica - Chaves will complete his term. However, that means there is a 20% chance that he will be removed or resign early due. The current corruption investigations are a real risk to his government. 20% chance of a change in president a shockingly high probability for a country that's typically a model of political stability. The good news for Costa Rica is that, if that scenario occurs, it would be a smooth and relatively calm transition with elections still in place for next year.
Peru - Dina Boluarte will finish her term. The fact that I’m giving her 20% odds to be removed in her final months is far less surprising than Costa Rica. Every political risk model suggests she is the most vulnerable president in the hemisphere to some sort of removal. She has survived so far thanks to a Congress that has neutralized her authority and kept her in office to avoid dealing with a more powerful leader. But that may not keep her in place until the end of her term. And unlike Costa Rica, political turmoil hits hard if the presidency is shuffled yet again.
Panama - More protests are on the way. At some point in the coming 12 months, the Mulino government will face a wave of protests that is larger and potentially more destabilizing than the ones it has already faced.
Colombia - It’s 80% likely that the Trump administration decertifies Colombia’s counter-narcotics efforts AND does not give a national security waiver. This will lead to major assistance cuts. In general, Trump-Petro relations will deteriorate including potentially further sanctions or visa restrictions on Petro’s government.
Ecuador - The country will face some sort of economic crisis in the coming 12 months. I don’t know exactly how to define economic crisis here, leaving that term unfairly vague in this prediction, other than “you’ll know it when you see it.” The combination of budget challenges, debt payments, and the need for more spending on security and electricity infrastructure just doesn’t add up for the Noboa government, even if it has control of the presidency and Congress.
Haiti - There is an 80% likelihood that there will be no presidential elections in the coming 12 months. Given that the transition goal is for the country to hold elections by early 2026, that is a disappointment.
Mexico - The Trump administration will conduct at least one military operation or drone strike on Mexican territory in the coming 12 months.
Brazil - Jair Bolsonaro will not be a candidate in the 2026 elections.
A few other notes:
Honduras - While this election still leans toward Libre, I’m less certain of this than I was at the beginning of the year. If I was at 80% at the start of the year, I’m now only about 60%. The possibility of an upset appears to be growing as the election draws closer.
Bolivia - I began the year at 80% odds that both Arce and Morales would fail to win the presidency in this year’s election. That looks now like 98% or better. Yay me! So it’s not fair to make it an 80% prediction on that same thing now. In terms of the current campaign, I think the odds are more complicated, given the number of candidates running. While I don’t have a formal model, I can give Senate President Andrónico Rodríguez far better than 20% odds to win, but below 50%. Let’s split the difference and say 35-40%. I’ve seen strong indications that the publicly published polls are underestimating his level of support. I’m not making a formal prediction right now, other than to keep any 80% prediction off the list.
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