20 themes to map Trump's LatAm policies
When overwhelmed by the news, try to map it all out
“I’m overwhelmed by the amount of news.” It’s the comment that everyone, including me, is making in conversation. Analysts must rapidly write individual pieces about the dozens of issues and events going on, making it hard to step back and see patterns and trends. Even the articles on patterns and trends can only grab onto a small sub-section of the chaos.
One frustrating part is that we all knew this surge of stuff was coming and yet we’re all surprised by how difficult it feels to take it all in and then write out something coherent despite expecting the challenge ahead of time.
So here is my attempt, one week into the Trump administration, to step back and write it all out in short form. Without describing any specific event, this is a list of themes and a 1-3 sentence description. Some of these will repeat points I’ve made in recent weeks. Doing this can start to build the map of all the themes that are ongoing and will continue for months and years to come.
Crisis mentality - We’re going to jump rapidly from event to event. Some events may simply fade as a new crisis emerges to take its place. The urgency of the day-to-day chaos is a feature, not a bug, in the Trump policymaking cycle.
Policy by tweet - Policies are being announced, debated, and promoted on Truth Social and Twitter/X. It speeds up the crises and challenges traditional diplomacy.
Expansionism - Trump is the first president of the modern era to make territorial expansion a stated policy goal of the United States. This expansion may come via dealmaking, economic coercion, or the use of the military.
Deportation Surge - The images of deportation and the importance of the topic in foreign affairs will be central to the administration.
Invasion - Much of the legitimacy of the policies on deportation, the use of the military and other issues is based on the perception and legal arguments of there being an “invasion” of the United States.
The use of the military - Trump will use the military beyond its traditional national security role to involve it in deportations, border security, strikes against cartels, and threats of invasion in his expansionist agenda.
Looking tough - Many of the policies are about the image of toughness and the perception pf toughness is a goal in itself.
Terrorists, Cartels, Gangs - In defining an enemy beyond migrants, there will be a focus on various groups of enemies who can be targeted.
Coercion and sanctions - The threat of sanctions, tariffs, and other restrictions is the go-to policy to obtain leverage for a deal.
Tariffs - Trump loves tariffs as economic policy and loves the threat of tariffs as a coercion strategy. Those two uses of tariffs may not always be in alignment.
Visa restrictions - Countries will see visas limited, restricted, and prohibited in different ways than before. Similar to tariffs, the threat of visa restrictions will also be a coercion policy that goes beyond previous administrations.
Birthright Citizenship - Trump is questioning the legitimacy of citizenship granted under the 14th Amendment. This will hang over the migration, deportation, and visa discussions.
Cutoff/shift of foreign aid - The abrupt cutoff of foreign aid and the coming shift in which priorities and groups are funded will reduce overall US influence in the region, increase the importance of the US military in foreign policy, and become a point of leverage in negotiations.
Transactional Dealmaking - Trump will announce a radical shift in policy and then cut a deal. Other countries and leaders believe they can make a deal with Trump.
No focus on Democracy, Corruption, or Human Rights - Amid all the other issues, the promotion of democracy and fighting corruption are not priorities for this administration. While democracy may serve as a rhetorical placeholder from time to time, Trump’s policies are likely similar to the Kirkpatrick doctrine.
Anti-DEI agenda - The Trump administration isn’t just avoiding diversity, equity, and inclusion issues. It is actively moving against them, doing so loudly, and looking for partners who will join them in that effort. This will clash with some agendas in Latin America.
China - The Trump administration will justify some of its policies in terms of the ongoing great power competition for influence in the region. Simultaneously, China will look to benefit from any moment it perceives Trump has weakened the US position.
AI - The debate about the impact of Artificial Intelligence will become central to the fight over semiconductors and Chinese technology and manufacturing in Latin America.
LatAm-focused policymakers mixed with reduced depth - At a top level, Trump has named a number of key leaders with a focus on Latin America. Underneath, some of the institutional expertise on the region is being gutted and some of the ambassadors nominated by Trump lack the depth.
Allies and antagonists in flux - Trump manages his relationships with countries and leaders differently than past presidents, meaning we cannot take for granted the traditional allies and antagonists of US foreign policy will remain the same.
Similar to my “75 questions about Trump’s LatAm policies” post from November, I’m hopeful this is the type of think-out-loud newsletter post that I can return to as I need to organize my thoughts in the future.
If you’re having a similar information overload issue, try the same exercise. Stop for an hour and write it all down. A mental mapping helps find order in the chaos.