75 Questions about Trump's Latin America policy
You have answers; I have questions.
Everyone focused on Latin America has written about the impact of Trump's election on the region over the past week. That is the topic of my column this week in World Politics Review.
In the process of organizing my thoughts about the subject, I thought it would be good to list questions worth tracking in the coming weeks and months. So I started writing some questions and then kept writing as I thought of more. It's not a typical newsletter, but hopefully some of you find it useful as we all work to track the policies of the next administration.
Do Trump's advisors have a unified view of US policy towards Latin America or is there a big internal fight within the Trump administration?
Does the US business community influence Trump to improve the investment environment with the Western Hemisphere or does Latin America get caught in the trade war?
Where does the importance of Latin America stand vis-a-vis the world? Does Trump pulling back from Ukraine and other foreign entanglements (if that occurs) increase a focus on US neighbors or are they included in the withdrawal from global affairs?
Who gets the key administration posts? Secretary of State, Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere, DASD for the Western Hemisphere at DOD and Director for the Western Hemisphere on the National Security Council are likely the top four that matter for regional diplomacy under a Trump administration. What other posts matter?
Who are the ambassadors? What is the percentage of career vs political and where do those political appointees come from? Does Trump fill all the ambassador posts? It should be easy with control of the Senate.
How does Trump treat the role of the OAS? Are there other regional organizations that the US engages with? Does his administration push for any ad-hoc groups as they did the Lima Group during the first term? Or is everything about bilateral relations?
How much does development support from USAID, DFC, MCC and other agencies decrease? How does Trump attempt to influence the Inter-American Development Bank?
Does Trump push the IMF to help certain countries and block it from helping other countries? Does this help the odds of Argentina or El Salvador getting deals with the IMF?
Does NED continue to be funded to do democracy promotion and do the priorities of those democracy promotion programs shift?
How does Trump change the role of the US military in Latin America? Do military-to-military relations increase or decrease? Does the military continue to provide humanitarian aid and disaster relief at the current levels or does that decrease? Does drug interdiction remain a top policy?
Does Trump change how the Intelligence Community ████████ █████████ ██████ ███ ██████████ ████ ███ █████████ in Latin America? (<- that's a joke, but also sort of serious if you consider US history in the region)
How do Trump's hardline immigration policies impact the ability of Latin Americans to obtain visas to travel legally to the United States? How does this impact tourism, education and businesses that need foreign workers? Are Latin American countries willing to put reciprocal restrictions on US citizens coming to their countries?
USMCA renegotiations? There are so many questions within that issue I'll make it its own two word statement/question for now. The business community could probably do 50 questions on that topic alone.
How does closing the border work at a technical level and what is the economic impact in the US and Mexico? How are migrants at the border treated? Does Mexico accept migrants being returned or does Sheinbaum use that issue as leverage for other issues?
Does Trump follow through on drone strikes or military raids against Mexican cartels? If it happens, is it part of a strategy shift or just a one-off event to look tough and say he fulfilled a campaign promise?
Where do the Texas gas exporters fit into the broader Trump-Sheinbaum foreign policy picture? Can they export through the planned Mexican LNG terminals or do they get caught up in the trade war and Trump's energy nationalism?
Does Trump continue US support for President Arevalo in Guatemala? If not, does Trump back a policy that helps Porras remove Arevalo from office?
Does Trump bail out Bukele's economy? Are sanctions against Bukele's allies dropped?
Does Trump get involved in the 2025 Honduran election to back an opposition candidate? What does that do to the JTF-Bravo situation?
Do the advisors who want a hard line and stronger sanctions on Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba win or do the people advocating for rapprochement and business deals win?
And does policy on those three countries stay correlated? It's plausible that under Trump there are deals cut with Maduro in Venezuela while also having tougher sanctions on Nicaragua.
Does Trump continue US trade restrictions on Cuba? Does he tighten them even further? Can Cuba be negotiated with? Kick out the Chinese spy base in exchange for the US dropping the embargo would be an interesting deal for Trump to make.
Does Trump attempt to sanction Venezuelan oil or bonds? Does Trump allow the CITGO sale to go through? How does Congress attempt to work with or restrict Trump on any Venezuelan policy changes? If Trump pivots to negotiations with Maduro, how does that impact his coalition?
Does Trump maintain a commitment to Guyana's territorial integrity? Is that backed up by any threat of military force or would that be on the list of international conflicts Trump says he will avoid?
How will Trump deal with US military assistance to Colombia? Does that change after the 2026 election there?
Does US security assistance to Ecuador continue? Would Trump support a proposal for a new US military base similar to the former Manta forward operating location? If Gonzalez wins the February election, does that mean an inevitable clash between the US and Ecuador?
How does Trump deal with the growing influence of BYD and other Chinese electric vehicle companies in LatAm?
Does Trump openly back Bolsonaro's political movement in Brazil's 2026 elections?
How does Trump respond to Brazil's CBDC promotion? The incoming Trump administration is pro-crypto but anti-CBDC and Bolsonaro seems to agree with that stance.
Can Trump help Milei dollarize Argentina's economy? Does this policy get framed as a way to push back against the BRICS attempt to reduce the global dominance of the US dollar?
What is the Trump administration's position on the Burford case and does Milei make that part of his negotiations with Trump?
Does Trump do anything to promote lithium mining in Latin America? On one hand, he dislikes green tech; on the other hand, Elon Musk needs lots of lithium. Also, if the US pulls back from lithium, China will step in.
Does the US prioritize copper from Latin America (most important for Chile and Peru) or does Trump place a tariff on it and other LatAm metals? The critical mineral fight with China means Trump should be working with metal miners in the region, but it's possible the global tariff war goes so big that many things get swept up into it.
How does Trump respond to the Chancay port in Peru and other Chinese infrastructure projects that present economic opportunities for Latin America but concerns for US interests?
What happens to Trump's personal financial interests in the region? I'm looking at you, Uruguay! There is a Trump Tower in Punta del Este.
How do Trump donors influence regional policy?
Will the next US administration support efforts by Latin American countries to pivot towards technology initiatives like the CHIPS act and green technology or will the funding for that dry up and supply chains be blocked due to the trade war? How do US companies manage their data centers in Latin America under Trump's trade policies? There is a potential boom here if the US puts tariffs on lots of electronics but companies can manage data centers in LatAm countries that have more free trade.
Does US policy attempting to block Chinese 5G and other telecom infrastructure efforts in Latin America change? Does the US crack down on sanctioned semiconductors being routed through the black market in Latin America to China?
Does the Republican-led US Congress generally enable Trump's policies in the Western Hemisphere, or do they clash with him? This is not as clear of an answer as some may expect. Many GOP Reps and Senators have longstanding priorities that they will not be happy to allow Trump to disregard or overrule.
Do mass deportations occur? If they do, how do they impact economics, government stability and security in various countries? Can Latin American countries cut deals with Trump to accept deportees in exchange for better relations, particularly avoiding economic tariffs?
If you made it all the way to the bottom of this list, thanks for reading. I hope to use Monday newsletters in the coming weeks and months to track some of the answers to these questions. Please consider subscribing to support that effort and receive the updates.