I agree with a lot of what you say. But saying that Trump has a plan is way too generous. He has the concept of a plan.
This is too fluid a situation but the only ones with a long term plan about Venezuela are Maria Corina Machado and Marco Rubio.
They have they’ve been developing it for several years and there is way more overlap there than in your diagram.
But I agree, chaos might be necessary and we should expect it and prepare for it. And Venezuelans are very clear on this. Last Meganalisis poll is impressive.
Also, Capriles remains a very unpopular leader according to polls (and viral memes!), so even if some of his arguments have merit, he does not appear to be a significant political figure at the moment.
One possible difference from the Maduro era is the apparent expansion of space for political participation. On January 23rd, small student-led protests took place across the country, and families of political prisoners have become far more visible in the media—something that was rare before, when many were silenced by threats and intimidation.
As for the additional political prisoners reported in January, Foro Penal has suggested that almost all but three were previously unreported cases, withheld out of fear of retaliation.
Bottom line: at least for now, there seems to be greater room for civic participation and somewhat less repression. That could change—but it may also present an opportunity. What do you think?
Your TDS degrades the rest of your post, whatever its merit.
Venezuela has an opportunity to transition to a stable government; I hope it does. Trump's interest is in not having a nest if adversaries in our hemisphere, and I expect that will remain the focus.
Oil companies care nothing about democracy, they care about stability. Once stability is achieved, they will invest.
I agree with a lot of what you say. But saying that Trump has a plan is way too generous. He has the concept of a plan.
This is too fluid a situation but the only ones with a long term plan about Venezuela are Maria Corina Machado and Marco Rubio.
They have they’ve been developing it for several years and there is way more overlap there than in your diagram.
But I agree, chaos might be necessary and we should expect it and prepare for it. And Venezuelans are very clear on this. Last Meganalisis poll is impressive.
Also, Capriles remains a very unpopular leader according to polls (and viral memes!), so even if some of his arguments have merit, he does not appear to be a significant political figure at the moment.
Thank you for the nuanced analysis.
One possible difference from the Maduro era is the apparent expansion of space for political participation. On January 23rd, small student-led protests took place across the country, and families of political prisoners have become far more visible in the media—something that was rare before, when many were silenced by threats and intimidation.
As for the additional political prisoners reported in January, Foro Penal has suggested that almost all but three were previously unreported cases, withheld out of fear of retaliation.
Bottom line: at least for now, there seems to be greater room for civic participation and somewhat less repression. That could change—but it may also present an opportunity. What do you think?
Stability is not a difficult word, it defines itself. I'm unsure what to add.
Your TDS degrades the rest of your post, whatever its merit.
Venezuela has an opportunity to transition to a stable government; I hope it does. Trump's interest is in not having a nest if adversaries in our hemisphere, and I expect that will remain the focus.
Oil companies care nothing about democracy, they care about stability. Once stability is achieved, they will invest.
Please defines stability?! 😳