Key point
Hxagon remains at 70% probability that Maduro will lose power in 2019. The pressure against Maduro is significant and rising in line with a transition in the coming months. That expectation of a transition before the end of the year could force a quicker transition, but even if Maduro continues in power through this month, his hold on power is significantly weaker than it was at the start of the year and appears likely to continue to weaken.
Background
On 23 April, Guado announced he would begin the final stage of Operation Liberty with a large march on 1 May. Over the past four months, Guaido has done almost everything he has promised on schedule, but in this case, he began a day early. The interim president announced just outside the La Carlota base in the Caracas metropolitan region that he was beginning it a day early. This led to a day of protests and repression with no clear victor at the end. Protests continue today, 1 May.
Factors working against Maduro:
Additional security force defections. Tuesday started with a video of Guaido in Caracas standing in front of armed military personnel who had decided to recognize him as the legitimate and constitutional commander-in-chief. Over the course of the day, other military personnel were videotaped crossing over to oppose Maduro. While few high level defections were reported, the general in charge of SEBIN reportedly backed Guaido and Leopoldo Lopez was able to leave his house arrest due to defections within SEBIN. The military defections are a continuance of a process seen since the beginning of the year and weaken Maduro’s hold on power.
Maduro and his allies were caught off guard. Sources I have in Caracas confirmed Maduro and most of the military command appeared to have no idea Guaido would act on 30 April in the way he did. While they’ve long feared some sort of uprising, they were surprised by the defections from the National Guard and SEBIN as well as the very public show of force from Guaido. Those defections occurred in spite of very heavy counterintelligence support from Cuba and Russia.
Guaido has managed to retain freedom of movement for four months while directly challenging Maduro’s legitimacy. Guaido was not detained last night and will march again today. The fact Guaido can continuously appear in public and move around most of the country while Maduro remains hunkered down in secure locations is a key point of data in terms of who is winning at the moment.
A large number of people continue to turn out in Caracas and around the country. Guaido has been able to maintain large crowd sizes and draw people to the streets as needed. The grumblings on social media regarding impatience don’t represent the larger public opinion in Venezuela, where a majority continue to back the interim president.
The situation continues to change, preventing Maduro from consolidating power. While some analysts have portrayed the political dispute in Venezuela as a stagnant stalemate, that is a very short-term view of things. Guaido and his team have shaken things up regularly over the course of the first four months of this year, forcing the government to respond and preventing the situation from stagnating. Maduro was supposed to consolidate power in January when he began his fraudulent term. Instead, he finds himself constantly under pressure and losing ground.
Maduro’s financial situation is weaker. The combination of sanctions, electrical power failures and general economic mismanagement have significantly weakened the regime’s finances. That impacts their ability to pay supporters, feed security forces and pad their bank accounts. The financial impact is going to hit harder in the coming months and there are few options for Maduro to turn around the situation.
The region continues to stand by Guaido. Statements from the Lima Group, OAS and Europe demonstrate widespread international support for the interim government. Partially coordinated international sanctions continue. The recognition of President Guaido by over 50 countries is increasingly limiting the regime’s ability to act in key international arenas. Zero countries have reversed their decision to stop recognizing Maduro.
Factors in favor of Maduro:
The media narrative works against Guaido. My generally positive take on the current situation is not shared by most media outlets, analysts or pundits. Bloomberg, for example, wrote, “Tuesday marked the biggest setback yet for Guaido and his three-month-old push to oust Maduro.” The Miami Herald asks “What went wrong?” While I think these media outlets are looking too short term and missing the bigger picture, that negative narrative also impacts Guaido’s chances. Part of succeeding involves creating the impression that success is imminent.
Brutal repression works. A relatively small number of National Guard and colectivos were able to repress a large number of civilian protesters, most of whom were acting non-violently. The images of repression lead to international criticism, but the violence has so far successfully prevented crowds of protesters from forcing the president out of the palace.
Lack of high level military and civilian defections. The military high command continues to publicly back Maduro in spite of credible rumors that several have engaged in negotiations with Guaido. Some may be hedging their bets in case Maduro falls while others may be playing a more devious game. The vast majority of the civilian Chavistas in Maduro’s cabinet have remained in their positions.
The Army hasn’t moved. On top of the lack of high level defections, there have been very few Venezuelan soldiers from the Army leaving their posts. The Army has been very quiet, not showing signs of breaking from Maduro but also not being used in major repression, likely due to fears they would refuse to follow those orders. General Suarez Chourio, the head of the Army, has publicly backed Maduro but has also been running his own set of negotiations and propaganda separate from the president and high command.
Cuba and Russia continue to actively support Maduro. China remains a passive supporter. India continues to buy oil. That international support to Maduro has become a crucial piece of his ability to remain in power.
Four risks moving forward
Maduro or those around him may panic. Understanding they have the weaker hand (even as they portray themselves as the stronger party), Maduro and his supporters may double down on violent repression regardless of the consequences.
Dictator swap. Someone inside the regime may decide that Maduro is a liability worth replacing. Alternatively, Maduro may decide to flee without a transition of power, creating a power grab scenario in which another Chavista or military leader takes power. A recent report by the Inter-American Dialogue described this as a “dictator swap.”
Local divisions within Venezuela. When it comes to political change, the capital is generally the critical point of conflict. However, the security situation across Venezuela does not necessarily match the capital. In the coming days and weeks, it is possible that pro-Guaido protesters will succeed outside of Caracas, granting a piece of territory to the interim government. Or it is possible that they succeed in Caracas while Chavistas hold some piece of territory outside Caracas. This potential division of the country would prolong the dispute.
The great bank robbery continues. Maduro continues to deliver oil for debt and is selling off Venezuela’s gold and foreign reserves at fire-sale prices to Russia and other foreign actors. Russia, Cuba, and to a lesser extent China, profit while Maduro remains in power and Venezuela faces economic uncertainty in a transition situation. The longer Maduro remains in power, the worse the finances will be for a future government, impacting its stability and ability to remain in power.
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