One month ago, I wrote:
Thought experiment: You have the magic power to snap your fingers and teleport Maduro to a maximum security prison in the US….What happens next? The answer is that the de facto presidency transitions to Delcy Rodriguez and the dictatorship moves on. Perhaps over the following months, it leads to instability or makes a negotiated transition more likely, but the immediate result is almost certainly that the current regime continues along as before without Super Bigote as its figurehead. So, not much changes.
On Saturday, after my thought experiment manifested itself into reality, I went back to that memo, looked at the scenarios, and declared that Venezuela is in Scenario B, aka the “chaos box.” After more consideration, that conclusion may be premature.
Using the December memo as a framework, we don’t actually know which scenario Venezuela is currently experiencing. Change “Maduro leaves soon” to some version of “Chavistas leave soon,” and all four scenarios I wrote about in December remain possible. Here is a brief description of how any of the four scenarios could still be in play.
Scenario A - Trump’s operation to remove Maduro was just the first of a series of military operations and pressure that lead to restoring democracy in Venezuela before the end of the year.
Scenario B - Internal regime tensions, insurgency, and pressure from the US lead to an ongoing violent power struggle that lasts for years.
Scenario C - The Trump administration cuts a deal with the Chavista leadership for a multi-year transition government that allows the current regime to retain power as long as they work with the US.
Scenario D - The Chavistas retain dictatorial control without Maduro, and the US loses its focus or resolve to stop them.
US involvement is a key variable
One thing that has changed since early December is Trump's promise to “rule Venezuela” through the end of a transition period. He wants whoever is in charge of Venezuela to listen to the US-imposed rules, stop drug trafficking, reduce the influence of Russia, China, and Iran, and, most importantly for Trump, allow US companies to rebuild and profit from Venezuela’s oil sector. At his press conference on Saturday, the US president practically named Rubio and Hegseth the viceroys of Venezuela, without using that specific term. Trump threatened Delcy with “a fate worse than Maduro” if she strays from cooperating with him and his team.
The future of Venezuela is now tied to the question of how much control the US wants and its willingness to use coercion to force outcomes, plus the variable of whether Venezuela cooperates or fights the US. Trump is known for bombast and exaggeration, but as the Maduro detention demonstrated, there is sometimes a level of follow-through that can’t be discounted. The US plan to run Venezuela, whether via pressure or military force, may or may not be serious. As I write in today’s WPR (gift link), the US is also interested in using military force elsewhere in the hemisphere. Meanwhile, Delcy and those behind her are being coy about their willingness to cooperate with Trump. They started with defiant statements, issued a very conciliatory message last night offering to work with the US, and as of this writing appear to be attempting to break the naval blockade on sanctioned Venezuelan oil. It’s not clear where they will end up, and they may not even know themselves as they fight internally.
So, let’s run a 2x2 matrix of scenarios focused on US involvement in Venezuela and on how Venezuela’s government, whoever is in charge, chooses to cooperate or not.
Below, for paying subscribers, is a new scenario matrix, some additional complicating factors to all the scenarios, and thoughts on what is likely. Paying subscribers also received a note yesterday (Sunday) with updates on the situation. Paying subscribers will get an update on US policy in the region on Wednesday and a Thursday newsletter about other political news in Latin America. This is me encouraging you to pay to subscribe.
The newsletter still goes out every Tuesday and Friday, free of charge. Tomorrow’s post about predictions around the hemisphere will be free for everyone. So even if you don’t pay, please do sign up to receive that.