Venezuela: Maduro's provocations at the CNE

Maduro wants the opposition to divide over his stupid and unfair electoral manipulations.

The Maduro regime is playing a game. The de facto president and those around him want part of the opposition to boycott the elections in 2024 and the rest of the opposition to go to the elections divided among multiple candidates. Divisions in the opposition over strategy (whether to compete at all) and candidates can allow Maduro or the candidate he chooses to win without mass fraud. With much of the international community simply looking for a "freer and fairer" election contrasted with the full fraud that occurred in 2018, a Chavista victory through shady tactics but not outright voter fraud would likely be enough to make diplomatic progress and keep the pressure up for additional sanctions relief.

Is that how it should be? No. But that's the reality of the political environment right now.

So, to provoke the opposition into those internal divisions, the world should expect to see numerous random and stupid-looking provocations over the coming months.

The most recent controversy is over the plan to replace the electoral authorities in the CNE and put the first lady in charge of the replacement process. This is a blatantly unfair plan. Rigging the selection of the oversight body creates the appearance of potential fraud well before the election. It creates outrage among international observers who want a fairer election. It drives distrust in the process among the public and division among the opposition.

For Maduro, the public outrage is the point. He's not just manipulating the CNE so he has the ability to rig the election next year, though that is a nice benefit. His main goal in publicly manipulating the CNE selection process is to create loud and noisy controversy today. He wants the public to distrust the process and he wants to trick a part of the opposition into debating boycotting the election, the same mistake they have made multiple times in the past.

This is only one controversy among many to come. Banning of candidates. Censorship of journalists. Abuse of state resources. Repression of protests. Venezuela has seen all that before and I expect to see more in the months to come. The opposition needs to recognize that they are being provoked and that Maduro wants the outrage to lead to their division. Right now, these moves are not about stealing the election but about pushing the opposition into an unforced error.

Stick to the plan, run a single unity candidate, and compete in the election. Could Maduro still steal the election under that scenario? Absolutely. But the pressure Maduro will face after that stolen election will be much more significant if the opposition can hold itself together among the current controversy and in all the controversies to come. Falling for the provocations now and handing Maduro an easier election victory in 2024 is the biggest mistake Maduro’s opponents can make today.