One comment that has been in my briefings for the private sector over the past 18 months is something along the lines of:
The Trump administration is convinced they are at war with the cartels. When I say this, many analysts want to argue against it, saying it’s illogical, immoral, or just bad strategy. Arguing against it doesn’t change the fact that it’s true for the Trump administration. It is defining their actions and alliances. You should expect it to expand.
I made a similar comment in my Odd Lots interview a few months ago:
What aligns [the various personalities and factions within the Trump administration] is every single one of them believes that they’re at war with the cartels. They are convinced that military power is necessary to defeat the drug cartels. Now, this is not the best idea, but it is something that every single one of them believes. And so they are going to war with the cartels and they’re bringing together any leader who is willing to use military power to target the cartels.
The AP published a good article on how that drug war is moving toward land. The article included a map, but I figured I could go further. So for today, I’m including my initial draft (with AI design help) of two maps. The first is on the expanded war on cartels. The second is on the designations of various criminal groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations. The map of actual and potential operations is slightly different than my recently updated Orange Drift map, but overlaps in some important ways.
These are just first drafts that I hope to iterate on. I’ll try to expand the maps, correct any errors, and comment more in a future week. I appreciate comments and questions. For now, I just wanted to publish the maps and think about them more.