Three things I got wrong on Venezuela

Maduro is still in power because economic ruin did not prevent him from consolidating political control. Also, Guaido and Trump dropped the ball.

I made a bad prediction regarding Venezuela in November 2019, saying Maduro was 80% likely to lose power in 2020. 

I also wrote two solid pieces of analysis in December 2019 about the forces that helped Maduro and how the political battles over 2020 might shake out. Looking back, there are a lot of good points in all those newsletters, but the specific N…