The online fight about US policy in Venezuela is ugly

Also, the US takes away Petro's visa and offers $20 billion to Milei.

I write about US policy in Latin America every Monday for paying subscribers. Publishing the first 500 words with no paywall to make those comments more public. In today’s newsletter:

1. The ugly online fight over Venezuela

2. Recent news about the military options vs Venezuela

3. El Quitavisas strikes Petro

4. Paraguay matters

5. The politics of Trump’s bailout for Milei

6. The Trump administration’s shift to the Western Hemisphere

Thanks to everyone who pays to subscribe to this newsletter. Feel free to respond to this email with feedback, comments, and questions.

The narratives about US policy in Venezuela have solidified.

• One side thinks Trump’s decision to use the US military to remove Maduro is a forgone conclusion.

• One side thinks that Maduro’s ability to remain in power is nearly certain.

Worse, both sides appear to act as if they can manifest their preferred policy into existence through cheerleading tweets, confirmation bias, and criticizing anyone who dares to question their preferred narrative. Trying to treat the potential for US military action (which I assess as probably approaching 60% in the coming four months) or Maduro falling (maybe 20% over the next 12 months) as scenarios that may or may not happen rather than certainties is attacked by those who are 100%-0% insistent that their desired vision of the future is correct. It’s unlikely that the US government under Trump even knows what it will do until the moment the president makes the decision.

The social media platforms were never an idealistic model of Athenian debate, but the online Venezuelan discussion, never particularly friendly, has grown more toxic in recent weeks as both sides have dug in. Still, I’m not going to treat the two sides equally; the pro-military action side is far worse in terms of their behavior online, even if they are correct about Maduro being an abhorrent and illegitimate dictator.

Open source data means that we can all track the various US military movements quite closely, but the pro-invasion side is over-interpreting the data. Every US military flight signals plans for a future bomb drop. Every naval ship could be carrying the special ops team that renditions Maduro out of the country or the Tomahawk missile that drops on Forte Tiuna. Every hour of silence from key regime actors could mean that a critical defection has occurred. This creates interesting challenges for those of us who want to track events with open-source information, because we also know that we are being spun by both sides trying to present their vision of the world (though the Venezuelan military’s bold posts about their ability to defend their country against the US military can be laughable at times).

Some of this online posting is done due to recursive logic. The pro-invasion side believes that posting enough social media chatter to build up the fear of military action might cause the regime’s stability to break down even without military action. Cheerleading an invasion is a strategy toward breaking Maduro one way or another. In contrast, those opposed to military action believe that by emphasizing the futility of it all, they can prevent the action from ever occurring.

Assumptions that the pro-invasion side won’t let you question:

• Maduro would fall easily with a small nudge.

• The opposition led by Edmundo Gonzalez and Maria Corina Machado would take over if Maduro fell.

• Gonzalez and MCM would do a good job governing the country and wouldn’t be challenged for power by others.

Assumptions that the pro-negotiation side won’t let you question:

• A large majority of Venezuelans would oppose a US invasion.

• The Venezuelan military would put up a strong resistance to the US.

• Maduro is strongly in power, and the coalition underneath him is unbreakable.

No matter where you stand on this issue, I’d caution analysts away from listening to those who insist on certainties about any of the above. Consider scenarios and percentage chances. Those who demand only one narrative as a possible future are doing propaganda, not analysis.

NBC reported that the US is drawing up plans for military strikes against Venezuela. “The plans being discussed primarily focus on drone strikes against drug trafficking groups’ members and leadership, as well as targeting drug labs, the four sources said.”