The Mexico City assassination and five other stories

Venezuela has regional elections, Argentina has protests, Brazil has Russian spies, and Uruguay has missing cows.

Happy Thursday. I focus on US-LatAm relations on Mondays and then use the Thursday newsletter to highlight stories that aren’t directly about the US.

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In today’s newsletter:

1. Mexico City assassination (no paywall)

2. Four points on Venezuela’s regional elections

3. Argentina Protests

4. Russian spies in Brazil and BRICS

5. Illicit Gold

6. Uruguay’s phantom cow bond scam

Feel free to respond to this email with feedback, comments, and questions.

Back in January 2020, I wrote:

Several journalists have joked that the capital is always portrayed as the next big cartel warfare zone but it never happens. In the past two decades, Mexico’s largest criminal groups have stayed away from committing public acts of violence in the capital itself. That suggests that they believe it is a red line that should not be crossed, perhaps fearing retaliation by the Mexican military.

Five months later, the CJNG attempted a brazen assassination of Omar Garcia Harfuch, the city’s secretary for public security and a key aide to Claudia Sheinbaum. It looked like the red line I wrote about had been crossed and open war was about to break out. But then for some reason - probably just the oddities of Covid-era timing, maybe a secret deal by AMLO, maybe just dumb luck - nothing new happened and it was the last major attack in the capital until this week.

Two close aides to Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada were assassinated in Mexico City on Tuesday. It’s been hard to stress just how important this event is for Mexico’s security situation. This is different from the violence that occurs elsewhere in Mexico and the biggest politically-focused attack since that June 2020 assassination attempt.

We don’t know much about the perpetrators or the motive behind this attack, but based on the initial evidence, it was almost certainly targeted and intended to send some sort of political message.

The big question of the moment is whether this was

1. the result of national level cartel fighting - the CJNG again targeting Morena leadership to express displeasure with Sheinbaum’s more aggressive security posture, or

2. a local dispute - some gang from Iztapalapa or the Tepito neighborhood getting revenge against the mayor’s office for something they did.

We all fear it’s the first explanation. That is the type of event that has the potential to be narrative changing depending on who was responsible and how the Sheinbaum government responds. But don’t doubt just how bad the second explanation can be. A politicized gang war in Mexico City would destabilize a relative safe haven in the country and impact the national political mood and international image of the country. It would also spiral into issues outside of the capital swiftly enough.

Two other comments.

First, the fact that this assassination was political was not lost on the US, which has designated six Mexican cartels as “terrorist” organizations. One of the common critiques of that FTO designation is that the cartels are motivated by profit, not politics or ideology like the typical terrorist group. This sort of attack doesn’t refute that critique, but does complicate it.

Second, these were not amateurs. They used equipment that is hard to trace. Their aim was strikingly accurate (yes, it was at close range, but also purposefully at close range to make sure it was accurate, which is also a sign of skill) and caused no collateral damage. While some Mexican officials have tried to dismiss this event as perhaps an act of random violence, they are all beefing up their own personal security right now. The two aides who were killed weren’t armed and didn’t have significant security measures in place, but the assassins likely have the skills to go after more secure targets as well.

Venezuela has regional elections this weekend. Four points:

1. The ruling party will win most or all of the positions because the elections are rigged. - You already knew that.