The Implications of TIAR - September 2019
The countries of the Rio Treaty are taking concrete measures to pressure Maduro and his allies
Coordinated multilateral sanctions increase the pressure on Maduro.
The governments of the Western Hemisphere who are party to the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance (TIAR, aka Rio Pact) voted 16 to 1 to invoke the treaty and begin a process of coordinated multinational sanctions against top officials in the Maduro regime. The resolution outlines the following actions:
The resolution promises the group will draw up a list of all regime officials who have engaged in drug trafficking, corruption and human rights abuses.
Bank accounts, properties and other assets of those officials are to be seized if they are inside of Rio Pact countries. The resolution also threatens “extradition,” though this could be more complicated.
To assist with this, a network of financial intelligence units will be set up to coordinate research, investigate and enforce sanctions on the targeted individuals and their frontmen.
The OAS must deliver notification to the UN Security Council about the activation of TIAR.
The group will meet again in two months.
There are five reasons this is important:
Coordination of sanctions makes them more effective. International coordination like this was on my list of signals that Maduro’s hold on power is weakening.
Placing resources towards financial intelligence will make sanctions more effective.
The TIAR invocation provides an external legal framework for countries that do not have a simple sanctions process in their domestic laws.
The vote is a demonstration of continuing pressure on Maduro. In spite of a media narrative that the situation has stalled or Maduro has reconsolidated his hold on power, no countries have backed down from their initial recognition of Guaido.
Domestically, Guaido has been under pressure from his own coalition to invoke TIAR. He has now done so and received the support of the international community on that issue.
A significant portion of the debate about TIAR in the media centered around the question of the use of force even though none of the countries invoking the treaty favored the use of force as the next step in Venezuela. Maduro wants this debate to be about the use of force as do some of the more extreme members of Guaido’s coalition. There was a brief discussion on whether the resolution should include a comment on the use of force, but the countries invoking the TIAR largely avoided that trap and remained on message about the specific actions being taken to target regime officials. Focusing on actions to take rather than actions to avoid made this resolution significantly stronger.
More international action is coming
A statement by the International Contact Group denounced Maduro’s attempt to create a false negotiation and demands his regime do more to allow human rights observation and humanitarian aid while working towards new elections. While that group attempts to promote a neutral stance between the two sides, and its resolutions always include a note rejecting the use of force, reading between the lines, the statement is very much on the same page as Guaido’s government on most of the transition issues.
Rumors are that the European Union will launch an additional round of sanctions targeting Maduro regime officials in the coming two weeks. If the sanctions overlap with US sanctions efforts or with the TIAR efforts, this could turn into significant pressure against the circles of power around Maduro.
Colombian President Duque will take his case to the UN that the Maduro regime is harboring organized criminal groups and terrorist organizations including the ELN and FARC. While China and Russia will likely block any serious actions that could be taken by the UN Security Council, it opens up the door for discussion of additional actions under various global counter-terrorism efforts.
Meanwhile, Maduro leaves Venezuela for Russia
In the wake of the TIAR invocation, Nicolas Maduro announced last night that he is traveling to Russia to meet with Putin. The Russian government announced this visit several days earlier without providing details. Russia provides a key lifeline for Maduro’s ability to evade sanctions, so there is a potential link between Maduro’s sudden trip and the TIAR discussion.
Maduro would only travel for three reasons:
He is desperate and willing to take the risk of leaving the country in order to beg Russia for additional support. This seems most likely.
He feels confident enough in his hold on power to visit allies. This seems unlikely. If he felt confident, he would have attended the UNGA in New York to demonstrate he is the legitimate president and argue against sanctions there.
He is seeking exile. This seems like the least likely option (Russia is cold in the winter) but has to be considered a possibility.
Vice President Delcy Rodriguez and Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza are scheduled to travel to New York soon for the UN General Assembly. Their agenda is two-fold: argue against the sanctions and work to smear Guaido and his coalition. However, Rodriguez will likely need to stick around in Caracas until Maduro returns from Russia to avoid having both the president and vice president out of the country at the same time.
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