The Carnival Barker and LatAm Policy
Trump cares more about ratings than results. Latin America will learn to respond accordingly.
Why would Trump implement tariffs against Mexico after a month of getting everything he demanded? Why would the US president invite Ukraine’s leader to the White House only to argue in the Oval Office and kick Zelenskyy out before he can sign the critical minerals deal? Why would Trump give Chevron only 30 days to exit Venezuela after having Ric Grenell visit Caracas for a handshake deal with Nicolas Maduro?
One important way to understand this is that Trump is a carnival barker. He is selling you, the viewer, a show to be watched. As the Zelenskyy meeting ended, Trump said, “This is going to make great television,” as if the ratings were more important than the result. A similar view could describe Trump’s Mexico tariff announcement and social media posts about Venezuela.
During his first term in office, the conventional wisdom about Trump was that his presidency was transactional. He wanted deals. What countries are learning during Trump’s second term is that the details of the deals are now less important than the drama that the deals create and the ability to capture your attention.
This is not a unique observation. Plenty of others have written and spoken about Trump’s ability to capture attention and drive the media narrative as a critical aspect of his campaigns and presidencies. What has changed in Trump’s second term is the level of priority that this ratings question has now taken. Not only are ratings more important than results, but few around Trump seem willing to push back to obtain better policies. If anything, the current group is enabling Trump, as if they are auditioning to stay on for the next season.
Latin American leaders prepared for this term by rereading The Art of the Deal. Instead, they should have watched the deep-cut clips of The Apprentice.
This policy dynamic from the opening weeks is just beginning to filter through Latin America. Many countries and political leaders are making concessions to Trump, only to find themselves double-crossed because it’s good for ratings. To succeed, Latin America’s leaders will now change their behavior.
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Back in November, I wrote:
Sheinbaum has popularity, political capital, and institutional control to spare.… While a trade war would always be disastrous for Mexico’s economy, no Mexican leader has ever been in a better political position to challenge the US president than she is right now.
At the time, I wondered what would happen if Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum “called Trump’s bluff” on tariffs and simply started retaliating. Sheinbaum did something different, showing just how willing she was to negotiate with the full backing of the Mexican government and population. She spent the past six weeks doing essentially everything Donald Trump demanded and more:
More Mexican military at the border.
More targeting of cartel leadership by Mexican security forces.
Extraditions of top cartel leaders.
More cooperation with the US on security and intelligence issues.
More fentanyl seizures.
The fewest number of migrant border crossings in a long time.
Increased tariffs on Chinese goods.
Sheinbaum has shown since her first day in office that she is an activist president, capable of making the Mexican government and Congress bend to her will to push forward her agenda. She has used that authority and her political capital to try to keep trade open with the United States while also pressing forward with her own nationalist agenda. She gave the new US president every opportunity to accept a win in his negotiations. And she has done it while remaining wildly popular. It’s an impressive accomplishment.
Despite that, Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico today. None of what Mexico’s president did stopped Trump from imposing the tariffs, demonstrating there was essentially nothing Sheinbaum could have done to avoid them.
Yet, it is a mistake to underestimate Sheinbaum in this tariff war. That is especially true if the question is about manipulating someone who loves good ratings. Despite a reputation as a policy wonk, Claudia Sheinbaum successfully navigated the AMLO presidency, where morning mañaneras set the policy agenda, won the MORENA party primary with political savvy to consolidate control of the political system, and now follows AMLO’s footsteps with her own daily show.
Sheinbaum’s experience in Mexican politics means she has been piecing together how to work with, against, and around Trump about as quickly as any other world leader. Sheinbaum is not a traditional caudillo, going head to head with Trump’s bluster. Instead, she has thrived and won battles while in the caudillo’s shadow, meaning she knows how to play that game as well as anyone. In that way, she will set the tone.
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The risk for the United States is that other countries are learning that Trump doesn’t respond to concessions; he breaks his end of the deal and demands more. It’s how he did business for decades. However, unlike the business world, where Trump could just move on to burning a new business partner, international relations really is a series of repeated games with the same actors. Trump can’t burn Mexico and move on. Mexico remains the US’s neighbor.
At some point, if Trump’s desire for ratings means he won’t accept a good deal, then countries are going to stop conceding to Trump. They will start calling his bluffs. They will force him to decide just how much real US power he is willing to wield to get his way. That means there is far more political, economic, and perhaps even military damage to come. Things will break, and a good outcome isn’t guaranteed. Because this isn’t a show. There are real-world consequences to the carnival barker’s promises and threats.