Ten risks for Peru’s 2026 election
The strong Congress will outweigh a weak president with minimal mandate.
Last week, President Dina Boluarte announced that general elections will be held on 12 April 2026 in Peru. Voters will elect a president, vice president, and new members of Congress to a lower and upper chamber.
Will Boluarte make it to the elections?
Peru’s president took office after an absurd, short, and failed autogolpe attempt by former President Pedro Castillo led to his removal and arrest. At the time, I thought the odds of Boluarte lasting more than a year were well under 50% given the political unrest and instability. She has surprisingly held on because Congress prefers the current situation of a weak executive whom they can control to a scenario in which presidential removal triggers new unrest or new elections.
Yet, the scandals keep piling on. Boluarte disappeared for several weeks early in her term without informing the country. She wears expensive watches that she could not possibly afford with her career government salary. Investigations into her finances and acts have been continuous. The reason she is likely to make it to the end of the term in 2026 is the same reason she has remained up until now: the rest of the political elite prefer her to the unknown. But given Peru’s recent history, their remains some possibility that a scandal or controversy or power grab forces her out of office. The Congressional votes to remove her are there if the elites decide to do so. With less than five percent approval, the country would not be sad to see the president gone.
Nobody leads Peru’s 2026 presidential election.
I’m not referring to the fact that there is no clear front-runner, though that is also true. Instead, it’s the fact that depending on how the question is asked about who should be the next president, several polls in recent months show almost a third of voters currently answer “nobody” or “none of them” or some other variation of that.
No political party has more than 10% support. Six out of every ten voters say they would prefer to vote for someone with no political experience compared to someone currently in office.
Even though there is political space, there is no mystery populist outsider candidate currently waiting to take advantage of the moment. And even if there was, the restrictions on party lists and electoral format would force that person to make concessions to traditional parties to build an electoral machine that could win.
The Congress matters more than ever
A constitutional reform last year reinstated the bicameral legislature and gave the two chambers a relatively strong mandate to check and control the power of the executive branch. That means the elections for the Senate and the lower house will be critical. Though it’s hard to know exactly how it will play out ahead of time, the new election system for the Congress appears structured and gamed for traditional elites to do well, particularly if they form coalitions with local party elites in multiple departments.
There is a strong possibility that all the attention gets focused on a polarized presidential race while the Congressional elections slip under the radar. But if the next Congress is even more powerful, the next president could matter less.
Other institutions have been gutted and politicized
Judges, prosecutors, and regulators have been either neutralized or politicized. It’s a critical reason Peruvian citizens don’t trust the political system and many are concerned this election will not be fair.
The Fujimori family remains powerful
Why build a strong Congress that can overrule the president while other independent institutions are weakened? Because the Fujimori family has shown itself capable of building strong Congressional coalitions even as they keep losing the presidency. This is their guarantee to control some level of power moving forward.
Whether Keiko and her Fuerza Popular party can run at all remains an open question. She faces various corruption investigations. But if she can run for president, she is immediately a front-runner. Name recognition plus the number of people who have voted for her in the past give her an edge that no other candidate immediately matches.
My limited conversations with Peruvians and analysts who study Peru (totally unscientific sample bias here) suggest a level of continued popularity for the now late Alberto Fujimori that gives the family name resonance. For as many Peruvians who hate and fear the Fujimoris (the reasons Keiko has lost three straight second round run-off elections), there is also a solid coalition that views the 1990s as a time of things improving, a strong contrast to the current moment. In a divided field with many null votes, a strong minority coalition of support can win power.
Beijing will influence the election
Between the port of Chancay and the Las Bambas mine, China is heavily invested in politically sensitive projects in Peru. Even if its trade with other countries is bigger, those two projects are at the center of key political debates in the country in a way that doesn’t happen in most of Latin America (though the Coca Codo Sinclair dam in Ecuador compares). Beijing can’t afford to lose support in Peru the way it has in Panama. This means that China could be more active in supporting or opposing certain candidates in this upcoming election if those issues become topics of debate. And that leads to….
The Trump administration will influence the election
In yesterday’s newsletter, I wrote that Ecuador President Noboa’s meeting with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago over the weekend is “a sign that Trump is willing to insert himself into Latin American elections moving forward.”
Peru’s chaotic political environment is an opportunity for influence. It’s a spot where the US can counter China. It’s a situation where a small nudge could lead to a more pro-US or pro-Trump leader or party coalition coming into power.
Trump allies have already signaled some level of support for Lopez Aliaga, the mayor of Lima. They would be open to Fujimori. They want to avoid Veronika Mendoza or another leftist who they perceive as allied against their interests (similar to their opposition to Luisa Gonzalez). No matter who runs, I expect Trump’s people to be active in shaping the election cycle.
The security issue hangs over the election
Peru is not yet Ecuador or Colombia. Although the security situation has substantially worsened over the past five years, the statistics show that Peru remains significantly more secure than either of its northern neighbors.
Still, homicides have risen substantially, extortion is up, and poll after poll shows crime is the key issue. Gang violence and influence has increased and organized crime (both domestic and foreign) takes advantage of a corrupt system where rule of law has broken down.
At least one of the two presidential candidates who make it to the second round in this election will be there because of a security populism message. Given how uncertain the field is right now, the chances that a major security incident disrupts this election and changes its course are high.
Protests, protests, protests
Take a country where people want change, but don’t feel it will come via the political system. Give it a government that is more corrupt and incompetent than authoritarian. They will use some repressive force, but they won’t violently shoot their way through hundreds of protesters the way Nicaragua or Venezuela will. That’s a place where citizens will use protests over voting to achieve their goals.
Mining protests and illegal mining are key examples here. Towns outside of mines regularly protest and attempt to occupy mining sites to get better conditions or to demonstrate opposition to mining practices that do more harm than good for the local community. And they often get some concessions. Late last year, the government and mining industry tried to shut down the REINFO process that allows for some informal mining. Instead, protests forced the Congress to grant a six month extension and caused the ouster of the mining minister.
Those mining protests become a model for how people who can’t vote for their preferred policy options will choose to influence the situation.
How long will the next president last?
Prior to Boluarte, Peru had four out of five presidents forced from office before their term was up, with only Francisco Sagasti making it to the end of an interim placeholder presidency. ICG published a lengthy report on all the recent instability back in December.
It’s possible someone is elected in 2026 with a strong mandate and majority Congressional coalition that gives them political capital to deliver the change Peruvians want.
It’s more likely the next elected president wins a tight runoff with high abstention because he or she is perceived as the “less bad” candidate than the other contender. That person will then face a strong and divided Congress and have no judicial backup. The public mandate for support, if it exists at all, will rapidly shrink as it has for most recent presidents.
It’s not a recipe for stability. Peru will struggle to escape its current political moment.