Ten questions to know who won Mexico’s judicial elections
Criticisms of judicial reform are known before the election even takes place. The election results will be harder to analyze.
On the first day of June, Mexicans will vote on over 800 judicial positions including nine members of the Supreme Court, part of the reform that former President Lopez Obrador passed immediately before handing over power to his successor.
So on Monday, June 2nd, how will we know who won? Is it a victory for Sheinbaum or a defeat? Did organized crime gain or lose?
The pre-election criticisms of the judicial reform and the fact this election for judges is taking place at all have easily overshadowed the horserace questions above. David Shirk’s analysis back in March is excellent. Also read the Economist article and editorial last week. WOLA describes some of the mechanics of the election including the fact that candidates must self-finance and that no ads are allowed. Having a candidate vetting and election process controlled by Morena and then voted on in such a pro-Morena political environment will skew the entire judicial branch toward the governing party, eliminating a key check on their consolidation of power. Criminal organizations will be more able to get their preferred candidates into power and manipulate the system. The entire process undermines rule of law and could violate some of Mexico’s international agreements including its trade deals with the US and Canada.
And despite all of that, we’ll still want to know whether the elections turned out the way AMLO and Sheinbaum expected after they occur. The election results will take time and won’t provide a very clear picture. The thousands of candidates competing at the national, state, and local levels do not have party labels. So here are some questions that can help frame the election results after they are announced.
Who wins the Supreme Court seats? - There are over 60 candidates for the nine Supreme Court seats and only three of the current justices are running. The Supreme Court's blocking of various AMLO initiatives was a key reason the former president decided to engage in this judicial reform. While it’s impossible to know exactly the partisan makeup of the hundreds of judges across the country, determining how these nine court members lean should be possible within the early hours after the election.
Who wins at the Judicial Discipline Tribunal? - The five positions on this court will have the power to police the judicial systems, investigating and potentially removing judges. Winning these seats is just as important as securing a seat on the Supreme Court, as this body will likely play an active role in shaping the court system after the election. If Morena-linked judges win these seats (and they are expected to), even if it loses elsewhere, they can push forward to make the judicial system their own. On the more optimistic side, this is also a place where one or two fiercely independent judges could fight back against a lot of power and corruption throughout the system.
What is the voter turnout? - This question is a mixed bag for the results. Lower turnout almost certainly benefits Morena-connected judicial candidates, given that party is the most powerful political machine in the country. However, lower turnout also degrades the legitimacy of the process. If turnout is below 15% as expected, few Mexican citizens will have buy-in with this process, and the perception of corruption in the system will remain or even expand.
How quickly and transparently are the election results announced and validated? - The ballot is huge, the voting process is a little different than before, the count will not be handled at the precinct level, and there are fewer government resources for this election. That all creates the potential for problems. Delays or irregularities, whether or not they indicate political interference or attempts to manipulate outcomes, will harm the credibility of these elections. Then again, perhaps we’ll all be surprised by a swift and accurate process that highlights Sheinbaum’s capability.
Who is angry about the results? - One useful early indicator to determine who won is who complains. If Sheinbaum’s political opponents rail against the results, then Morena had a good day. If the government suddenly changes its message and begins trying to undermine or flip the process, it means they did worse than they expected.
Did violence against judges or candidates occur before or on election day? - Criminal groups regularly use threats and violence in municipal and state elections to get their candidates in power and keep opponents out. This judicial election has been quiet so far in this area, but it’s also a complex situation. If there is a wave of violence against candidates in the next two weeks (it would likely be localized in a small number of states, not nationally), it signals an aggressive push by organized crime to get their way in this election.
While the questions above can be answered in early June, some of the other indicators will take more time. The questions below will take 3-6 months to answer.
What happens to Sheinbaum’s popularity? - President Claudia Sheinbaum remains incredibly popular, with some polls showing her approval rating above 80%. She combines a strong base of support she inherited from AMLO with a “rally around the flag” surge of support from moderates and even political opponents due to how she has handled the disputes with the Trump administration. That’s good for her chances of getting her way in the judicial election. Yet, dig into those numbers, and there are some weaknesses. Mexicans are worried about the economy. They view corruption as a key concern and think the country is losing in its battle against the large cartels. All of that could be toned down or amplified depending on how the broader public views judicial reform in the coming months.
How does the judicial transition process play out? - Bringing in a totally new Supreme Court and hundreds of new judges around the country is going to be messy. It will lead to delays in criminal trials and gaps in terms of the judiciary dealing with amparos and legal checks on the other branches of government.
How many judges are removed? - There is a process to remove judges who should have been disqualified ahead of time due to corruption, links to criminal organizations, or a lack of credentials. The government downplayed that and said judges who are elected that should have been disqualified by the vetting panel but were missed will be removed after the election. Additionally, the Judicial Discipline Tribunal could turn out to be quite active in removing judges for real or imagined/political reasons.
Does Sheinbaum push for additional reforms? - While this reform was AMLO’s brainchild (and took him to the very end of his term to pass), Sheinbaum has been the implementer of it. It’s a power grab that she has embraced. Last week, she announced an additional reform to eliminate the autonomy of various prosecutors around the country. An emboldened Sheinbaum may push to consolidate power even further while one who faces a setback in these elections may go back to the drawing board on judicial reform and redo the implementation or even the reform itself.