Suriname Protest Notes - February 2023
Suriname's president faces the same challenge as many other South American leaders: high inflation and debt payments challenging the government's ability to pay for subsidies.
I have a zoom call planned for next Monday at 11AM EST about protests in the hemisphere. I knew I’d be focused on Peru, but I did not expect to be writing about Suriname when I planned it. Here is the Zoom link to register for the call. I’ll do about 20 minutes of discussion about Brazil, Peru, Suriname, and whatever comes up this week, and then open it up for questions.
Last week, a protest in Suriname turned violent and led to the storming of the country's national assembly and some property destruction within. More than 140 people have been arrested and the government of President Chan Santokhi has formed a task force to investigate the events and find those responsible. The violence received widespread condemnation from across the hemisphere including the US, Brazil, and the Caribbean Community.
The last time I wrote about Suriname in this newsletter was June 2020. Professionally, the country only comes up 2-3 times per year when some company or investor asks me how the country's politics intersect with some industry, usually mining or oil. So it was unusual to see the country suddenly pop up in the news last week with this violence.
The background of this protest sounds a lot like the background of many other protests seen in Latin America in recent years. The population is angry about the economy. Inflation will almost certainly top 30% this year after being around 50% for the past two years. As part of an IMF program, the government is planning to cut electricity and gasoline subsidies while implementing a new tax on imported goods. Protestors argued against these measures, as well as against rising prices of food and cost of living. Following the country's default in 2020, the government is under pressure from the IMF to get its spending under control.
To be clear, the protest last week does not appear to have been organized as an insurrection like 6 January in the US or 8 January in Brazil. This was not a crowd trying to reinstate Desi Bouterse. Instead, a small number of violent actors incited the crowd of about 2,000 people. The protest last week is at least partially a continuation of protests in 2022 that were driven by the same economic concerns as well as corruption allegations against the president and his administration.
As an interesting side note, the government appears to have shut down the internet during the protests. It was a block that is simple to sidestep with a VPN, but still demonstrates the concern the government has and the tools it can use during future protests.
As often happens in these situations (see Peru for a more extreme example), while the population does not agree with the violence that occurred, people are still quite upset at the government and its economic agenda. Polling in Suriname is scarce, but it seems likely that a majority of the population sides with the more peaceful protesters at this point. The potential for new protests in the coming weeks could be sparked if the controversial economic initiatives are implemented.
There is little chance that Santokhi loses his position in the short term, despite some protestors calling for his removal. While Suriname's president is elected with a 2/3 vote in the parliament, there is no simple formal mechanism for removing the president via a no-confidence vote or impeachment. There does not appear to be the space for a "power politics" moment where the legislature or courts attempt to take the president down via some constitutionally questionable move. The military seems to be under the president's control (there were some doubts about that when Santokhi first came to power given Bouterse's influence).
The bigger problem for Santokhi is the politics of the situation. His Progressive Reform Party (VHP) only controls 20 seats in the 51 seat legislature. His coalition allies mean he still has a slim majority, but that majority has narrowed in recent weeks with the loss of the Suriname National Party (NPS). He seems likely to get these economic reforms supported by the legislature, but in the process, he's handing his political opponents a weapon that they can use in the 2025 elections.
Hanging over this story is the question of oil. Prior to last week’s protests, Bloomberg published an article about the ongoing exploration of oil off the coast of Suriname. Guyana’s economy is booming because of successful oil drilling and Suriname’s current debt and austerity questions would melt away rather quickly if significant quantities of oil could be produced offshore. Oil wealth brings its own development and inflation challenges, but they would be “good problems to have” compared to the current situation. Unfortunately for Santokhi, the development of oil fields is still a few years away.
So instead of benefitting from oil demand today, Santokhi finds himself in trouble while the entire political system understands that the party or coalition that wins in the 2025 elections will get to ride a gravy train. Last week's protest occurred right near the halfway point of the term, but the topics driving the protest and the future promise of oil are setting up for a long and brutal election campaign two years from now.