Six stories about authoritarianism in Latin America - 9 January 2025

Comments about Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, Mexico, Brazil, and the region.

Every Thursday, I send six short commentaries about politics and security around Latin America. Please feel free to respond to this email with feedback, comments, and questions.

Venezuela’s opposition plans protests beginning today. The current rumor is that Edmundo Gonzalez will attempt to fly from the Dominican Republic to Venezuela accompanied by a number of former presidents including former Mexican President Felipe Calderon. That feels like the sort of plan that will be forced to change mid-course, so expect it to be disrupted and for Gonzalez to attempt something different in the coming days.

The Maduro regime engaged in a fresh round of mass detentions ahead of his re-inauguration ceremony scheduled for tomorrow, 10 January. Dozens of activists, relatives and average citizens have been arrested, detained, and disappeared. Those include the son-in-law of Edmundo Gonzalez, who an increasing number of countries recognize as Venezuela’s legitimate-president elect. For the past week, the DGCIM has operated checkpoints around Caracas.

One side controversy: Venezuela has blocked TikTok for the past three days. I mentioned the dispute between the government and TikTok last week, but this sudden blockage around the inauguration appears related to concerns that the opposition was successfully using the platform to spread anti-Maduro messages and protest logistics information. The government has also blocked various DNS and VPN services that allow people to easily evade the blockages online.

These new detentions, censorship, and levels of repression are not the actions of a regime that feels confident in its position. Maduro and his allies are afraid.

On Tuesday, I said Maduro is 80% likely to remain in power this year. The slim odds that he will lose power are mostly focused around the next four months. If he can remain in office until May, he will almost certainly make it through the rest of the year. But false elections and inaugurations are often moments of tension for any dictatorship and they are particularly vulnerable moments for Maduro, whose evidence of election fraud was on display for the whole world including his allies to see. Making sure the opposition doesn’t succeed at toppling him requires repression. As I wrote last February, “Oppositions don't defeat dictatorships by dropping out when the odds and rules don't favor them.”

What are signs that Maduro’s hold on power is collapsing? Any shift by the military away from Maduro would be the most certain sign. Gonzalez called for the military to do its constitutional duty and support him as president in a video earlier this week. Splits among the civilian Chavista leadership would be another sign of Maduro weakening. Neither sign has been seen during the current moment.

What are signs that Maduro’s hold on power is solid? Any statement by Trump that seems to acknowledge Maduro as president will deflate the opposition’s bubble. The fact Trump refused to meet with Gonzalez was bad, but at the very least his plans for Venezuela policy remain murky and the hope for a Rubio-led coalition of hawks remains. If Trump’s position becomes clarified towards rapprochement with Maduro, that would be far worse for Maduro’s opponents.

A group of countries including Brazil and Colombia are sending ambassadors but not higher level delegations to Maduro’s inauguration. This is their attempt at a middle ground on the issue. In not sending a high-level delegation, they are registering a protest against Maduro’s inauguration after a fake election. In keeping an ambassador present, they are maintaining diplomatic ties and an embassy that could be critical in protecting their citizens and brokering future negotiations. Maduro has threatened to break diplomatic ties with any country that does not acknowledge his inauguration.

Rather than their position being seen as an act of diplomacy and neutrality, Brazil and Colombia are angering both Maduro and his opponents.